射击技能的提高应注重射手的心理训练

保持良好的心理状态是一名优秀射手应具备的心理素质。随着新军事训练大纲的施行、应用和射击水平的不断提高,实弹射击和反恐作战中射手心理方面所承受的负荷也随之增大,涉及心理方面的问题也逐渐增多,更加凸显了射手心理训练的重要性。那么,如何在射击中加强心理训练,强化射手的自控能力？这就必须从心理训练的原则、作用和方法入手,进行科学探讨,同时注意掌握克服几种常见不良心理的方法。     

A sequential partial information bomber-defender shooting problem

A bomber carrying homogenous weapons sequentially engages ground targets capable of retaliation. Upon reaching a target, the bomber may fire a weapon at it. If the target survives the direct fire, it can either return fire or choose to hold fire (play dead). If the former occurs, the bomber is immediately made aware that the target is alive. If no return fire is seen, the true status of the target is unknown to the bomber. After the current engagement, the bomber, if still alive, can either re-engage the same target or move on to the next target in the sequence. The bomber seeks to maximize the expected cumulative damage it can inflict on the targets. We solve the perfect and partial information problems, where a target always fires back and sometimes fires back respectively using stochastic dynamic programming. The perfect information scenario yields an appealing threshold based bombing policy. Indeed, the marginal future reward is the threshold at which the control policy switches and furthermore, the threshold is monotonic decreasing with the number of weapons left with the bomber and monotonic nondecreasing with the number of targets left in the mission. For the partial information scenario, we show via a counterexample that the marginal future reward is not the threshold at which the control switches. In light of the negative result, we provide an appealing threshold based heuristic instead. Finally, we address the partial information game, where the target can choose to fire back and establish the Nash equilibrium strategies for a representative two target scenario.     

防空导弹火力单元战斗效率评估

从防空战斗的实际需求出发,结合现行防空作战运筹理论中存在的问题,提出了防空导弹火力单元战斗效率指标应包括完成射击任务概率和毁歼空中目标数量等分指标的观点,利用概率论和军事运筹等方法,分析了这两项分指标的构成要素及其相互关系,并建立了相应的评估模型,结合实例说明了模型的具体应用.     

Discrete search allocation game with false contacts

This paper deals with a two‐person zero‐sum game called a search allocation game, where a searcher and a target participate, taking account of false contacts. The searcher distributes his search effort in a search space in order to detect the target. On the other hand, the target moves to avoid the searcher. As a payoff of the game, we take the cumulative amount of search effort weighted by the target distribution, which can be derived as an approximation of the detection probability of the target. The searcher's strategy is a plan of distributing search effort and the target's is a movement represented by a path or transition probability across the search space. In the search, there are false contacts caused by environmental noises, signal processing noises, or real objects resembling true targets. If they happen, the searcher must take some time for their investigation, which interrupts the search for a while. There have been few researches dealing with search games with false contacts. In this paper, we formulate the game into a mathematical programming problem to obtain its equilibrium point. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

运动目标视频检测与跟踪方法

运动目标跟踪的根本任务是根据目标的运动模型和图像特征估计它们的轨迹。提出一种运动目标检测、跟踪的方法。首先使用基于自适应混合高斯模型的背景差方法提取运动区域。目标的运动估计采用扩展卡尔曼滤波,由预测位置确定初始的候选区域。然后根据目标与候选区域的变化程度确定匹配需要的特征信息。如果目标只有一个候选区域并且它们之间的区域特征变化微小,那么它们的匹配不需要额外的信息。如果目标有多个候选区域或者单个候选区域可是它们的区域特征变化激烈,除了区域特征外还使用边缘特征,通过计算目标和候选区域的边缘的部分Hausdorff距离来确定目标的最佳匹配区域。实验结果表明,该方法在存在遮挡的情况下也能够连续的跟踪多个运动目标。     

A model for the determination of optimal interfiring times

Various models of stochastic duels with round dependent hit probabilities have appeared in the literature [1]. However, none of them analyzed the effect interfiring times will have on the hit probability. In this paper we formulate a model for a marksman versus a passive target where the probability of a hit at a given round is a function of the interfiring times. We show how to solve for the optimal interfiring times and prove that under certain assumptions the optimal rate of fire is a non-decreasing function of the round fired.     

Attrition modeling in the presence of decoys: An operations-other-than-war motivation

Under various operational conditions, in particular in operations other than war (OOTW) or peacekeeping, an intervening force, here Blue, must occasionally engage in attrition warfare with an opposing force, here Red, that is intermingled with noncombatants. Desirably, Red armed actives are targeted, and not the unarmed noncombatants. This article describes some simple Lanchesterian attrition models that reflect a certain capacity of Blue to discriminate noncombatants from armed and active Red opponents. An explicit extension of the Lanchester square law results: Blue's abstinence concerning the indiscriminate shooting of civilians mixed with Red's is essentially reflected in a lower Blue rate of fire and less advantageous exchange rate. The model applies to other situations involving decoys, and reflects the value of a discrimination capability. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44 : 507–514, 1997     

弹药不足条件下小口径舰炮射击方法

在未来的海战中,小口径舰炮可能要多次抗击来袭的空中目标.在最后一次抗击中,很可能会出现剩余弹药不再满足整个射击航路段所需的弹药数这种情况.此时如何合理地确定射击方法将对小口径舰炮武器系统的射击效果产生直接的影响.在现有战术软件的基础上,提出压缩开火距离数学模型,可以明显提高小口径舰炮武器系统,对空中目标尤其是导弹目标的命中概率.     

Research and development of training pistols for laser shooting simulation system

Firearm shooting simulators are effective means for training the personnel in armed forces, police and shooting athletes. Shooter–weapon is a complex biomechanical system, therefore the best training quality is achieved when the process of a weapon shot is reconstructed in a training simulator and its training weapon mimics the (feeling) perception of the real weapon usage. Dynamics of motions of a handgun simulator held in the hand of a shooter by its grip during the shot is analysed theoretically and experimentally. Breech lock mechanism of the simulator is actuated pneumatically by supplying compressed air in pulses from external pressure source. Analysis of the obtained simulation results and experimentally recorded motion parameters of the training weapon body reveals that application of pneumatic drives is a reasonable option to simulate recoil perception of a pistol.     

A periodic maintenance model with used equipment and random minimal repair

The maintenance strategy considered in this article is in the class of block replacement policies. The working unit is replaced by new ones at instants T,2T,3T,… independently of the age and state of the unit. If a failure occurs between these instants, the random repair cost is evaluated. If it is smaller than a predetermined control limit then a minimal repair is carried out. Otherwise the unit is replaced by a used unit. The performance of this maintenance strategy is evaluated in terms of average total cost per time unit over an infinite time span. The mathematical model is defined and several analytical results are obtained. A computer program has been written, which solves the mathematical problem, and some examples are given for the cases where the underlying life distribution is gamma, Weibull or truncated normal.     

Variable sampling plans for normal distribution indexed by Taguchi's loss function

Taguchi has presented an approach to quality improvement in which reduction of deviation from the target value is the guiding principle. In this approach any measured value x of a product characteristic X brings a loss to consumer in general, where the loss is expressed as a quadratic form with respect to the difference between the measured value x and the target value T of a product characteristic. Then, it is natural to reject the lot which may bring a large loss to consumer. This concept induces us to construct new variable sampling plans based on the Taguchi's loss criterion. In this article, a design procedure of the sampling plans for assuring the loss in the Taguchi's method is proposed. Some numerical results based on the proposed design procedures are illustrated. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 591–603 (1997)     

一种舰炮武器系统手动跟踪及射击控制方法

针对常规舰炮武器系统对低照度、低反射面积目标无法自动跟踪和有效测距的情况,设计了一种基于光电传感器目标视频的手动跟踪及射击控制方法。操作手控制跟踪器对目标实时瞄准,并通过激光测距或距离装定,以获取目标的量测数据。该方法原理简单、成本低、易于实现,并且具有诸元快速校正功能,已成功应用于工程实践,并经过试验验证,可以有效提高系统对该类目标的作战能力。     

具有射击门体制的武器系统首发命中率分析

针对具有射击门体制的武器系统,研究其行进间射击的首发命中率.在分析射击误差时空特性的基础上,得出了射击门对稳定误差具有吸收效应.利用超速、欠速概率转移阵,分析了稳定误差在射击门内的概率密度分布,演绎了首发命中率估值的解析表达,给出了首发命中率的计算方法.通过数值分析,探讨了稳定误差的相关系数与其在射击门内的分布及首发命中率的关系,从而为行进间射击的武器系统稳定系统的设计、优化提供理论支持.     

Dangerous work: Terrorism against U.S. diplomats

The goal of diplomats is to represent their countries’ interests through diplomacy, not arms. Because they are not military personnel, they may be perceived as at lower risk of being the target of terrorists. However, recent events have called this perception into question. Despite this danger, there has been little research on terrorist attacks against diplomats. Drawing on the terrorism studies literature, this article argues that diplomats are targeted more than non-diplomatic targets in countries where certain U.S. foreign policies are implemented. An empirical analysis of 471 attacks against U.S. diplomats from 1970 to 2011 reveals that while U.S. alliances and foreign aid increase the likelihood of attacks against diplomats, U.S. military intervention and civil war, on the other hand, increase the risk of terrorism against non-diplomatic targets. This finding is relevant because it shows terrorist attacks against diplomats result from certain types of foreign policy.     

警卫射击训练改革之我见

警卫射击训练要求和警卫战术结合,改革射击动作,调整射击距离,缩短射击时间,在运动中消灭运动目标,进行接近实战的模拟射击训练,红蓝对抗射击训练。     

潜艇攻击鱼雷最小射程圆内目标的方法

针对潜艇攻击鱼雷最小射程圆内目标的方法问题,首先,给出了不同自导方式下鱼雷最小射程的计算方法,并分析其对鱼雷攻击的影响;然后,依据鱼雷二次转角射击弹道过程,建立了鱼雷二次转角射击通式,并分析了鱼雷二次转角射击需满足的约束条件;在此基础上,深入研究了潜艇攻击鱼雷最小射程圆内目标的具体方法。最后通过实例验证了攻击方法的可行性和有效性。     

Allocation of quality improvement targets based on investments in learning

Purchased materials often account for more than 50% of a manufacturer's product nonconformance cost. A common strategy for reducing such costs is to allocate periodic quality improvement targets to suppliers of such materials. Improvement target allocations are often accomplished via ad hoc methods such as prescribing a fixed, across‐the‐board percentage improvement for all suppliers, which, however, may not be the most effective or efficient approach for allocating improvement targets. We propose a formal modeling and optimization approach for assessing quality improvement targets for suppliers, based on process variance reduction. In our models, a manufacturer has multiple product performance measures that are linear functions of a common set of design variables (factors), each of which is an output from an independent supplier's process. We assume that a manufacturer's quality improvement is a result of reductions in supplier process variances, obtained through learning and experience, which require appropriate investments by both the manufacturer and suppliers. Three learning investment (cost) models for achieving a given learning rate are used to determine the allocations that minimize expected costs for both the supplier and manufacturer and to assess the sensitivity of investment in learning on the allocation of quality improvement targets. Solutions for determining optimal learning rates, and concomitant quality improvement targets are derived for each learning investment function. We also account for the risk that a supplier may not achieve a targeted learning rate for quality improvements. An extensive computational study is conducted to investigate the differences between optimal variance allocations and a fixed percentage allocation. These differences are examined with respect to (i) variance improvement targets and (ii) total expected cost. For certain types of learning investment models, the results suggest that orders of magnitude differences in variance allocations and expected total costs occur between optimal allocations and those arrived at via the commonly used rule of fixed percentage allocations. However, for learning investments characterized by a quadratic function, there is surprisingly close agreement with an “across‐the‐board” allocation of 20% quality improvement targets. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 684–709, 2001     

Testing or fault-finding for reliability growth: A missile destructive-test example

A new piece of equipment has been purchased in a lot of size m. Some of the items can be used in destructive testing before the item is put into use. Testing uncovers faults which can be removed from the remaining pieces of equipment in the lot. If t < m pieces of equipment are tested, then those that remain, m₁ = m − t, have reduced fault incidence and are more reliable than initially, but m₁ may be too small to be useful, or than is desirable. In this paper models are studied to address this question: given the lot size m, how to optimize by choice of t the effectiveness of the pieces of equipment remaining after the test. The models used are simplistic and illustrative; they can be straightforwardly improved. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 623–637, 1997     

基于AHP的射手综合素质的三级模糊综合评判

针对装甲机械化部队射手素质评价存在的评价内容不全、指标选取不合理等诸多问题,提出了一种基于层次分析法(AHP)和模糊评价法的射手综合素质的三级模糊综合评判模型。首先,在对射手综合素质深刻剖析的基础上,建立了射手综合素质评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法确定了各指标权重;然后,运用模糊综合评价法构建了射手综合素质的三级模糊综合评判模型;最后,通过实例验证了该模型的科学性与实用性。     

基于多模射击的火力控制理论研究

为提高高炮武器系统拦截空中高度机动目标的能力,提出了多模射击的思想.多模射击是指火控系统根据战场态势,实时可靠地估计出目标在射弹飞行时间内若干个可能的机动形式预测结果.并据此控制高炮群同时向若干个可能的目标未来点进行射击.建立了多模射击毁歼概率计算公式.通过与传统的单模射击体制进行效能对比分析验证了多模射击体制的有效性.最后对基于多模射击的火力控制若干关键技术作了简要分析.