第三方介入的装备采购供应违约处理机制浅析

随着装备采购制度改革的不断深入,建立于计划经济体制下的装备采购供应活动违约处理制度已与我军装备建设发展不相适应。改革并完善我军装备采购供应违约处理制度,可借鉴美军装备采购违约处理制度建设的做法和经验,建立起第三方介入的违约处理机制,通过协商、调解、仲裁、诉讼等方式解决争端。同时,加强违约处理机构建设,在大军区以上地区设立若干仲裁委员会,并明确管辖法院,设立装备采购供应裁决法庭,规范军方的费用补偿责任。     

将要违约之时

今年2月初,正值春节之时,工人们先后回家欢度佳节了。国家一级企业、万余名职工的天津塘沽盐场场长梁家栋遇上了一件“挠头”事:“再过72小时,塘沽盐场与独联体一家客商签订的3000吨原盐供销合同就过期了;然而3000吨盐码还象条沉睡的巨龙,横卧在距新港码头百里之外的盐滩上。”急红了眼的梁场长拿起电话,四处请求救援,但听到的都是些令人失望的消息……““梁场长,独联体客商坚持按合同办事,毫无商量的余地。如果违约,违约金和每天5000元的停港     

合同关系中第三人原因违约的责任承担

随着社会经济的发展,无论是单位还是个人之间,都会产生大量的合同关系。而合同关系中第三人原因违约的责任承担问题,使许多官兵面对家庭和亲人涉法问题时,感到困惑。其实,合同关系是一种债的关系,具有相对性,一方不履行义务,一般只能要求合同相对方承担相应合同责任。     

网络安全策略制订与实施

讨论了基于价格／风险模型制订网络安全策略的方法和步骤,并指出了安全策略实施过程中应注意的问题。     

基于军民融合条件的装备性能维修保障合同执行情况

在军民融合背景下,部分新获得承制资格企业在首批装备制造或维修保障任务中时有违约问题发生。为解决该问题,提出了以基于性能的采办理论为基础的合同违约预测方法研究。以陆军通用武器装备维修保障承制单位为案例,运用SPSS软件进行数据整理和因子分析,构建合同履行预测评价模型。然后利用新入民营企业试生产实验数据在量产前建立费用和可用度模型,通过费效比最优的方式预测各新入企业的首批装备可用度及花费等关键指标,进行综合评估。结论表明该方法能够对装备合同履行情况和违约风险进行预判。     

基于灰度关联和神经网络的装备价格第三方服务机构评价模型

为了科学合理选择装备价格第三方服务机构,研究以灰度关联分析和神经网络方法构建评价模型。研究数据采用问卷调研形式获取,针对样本数据采用灰度关联法分析评价指标与综合评分之间的关联性,发现服务态度和制度建设情况两个评价指标与综合评分关联度达0.74以上,较为重要。采用有效二级指标和综合评分作为输入和输出数据,构建基于神经网络的装备价格第三方服务机构评价模型。通过实际数据验证分析,发现神经网络模型预测精准的概率为75%,预测满足要求的概率为25%,满足实际应用需求,能够为主管部门遴选机构建言献策。     

基于抵押融资视角的国防技术定价方法研究

在当前不断鼓励军民深度融合的背景下，维持进入军品市场后生产与发展的资金是企业关注的一大问题。本 文从技术抵押融资的角度出发，针对国防技术的特殊性对其价值评估的影响因素进行了分析，通过对技术价值评估基本方法进行对比，在收益法的基础上引入了即期修正系数、到期清算修正系数和违约风险系数，提出了国防技术价值评估的具体模型。     

国防科研项目概算价格影响因素及其结构关系

为探索国防科研项目概算价格的形成规律，本文在现有研究的基础上，以成本动因理论为指导，结合专家的知识和经验，从直接和间接两个角度系统地分析了国防科研项目概算价格的影响因素，并利用解释结构模型研究了影响因素与概算价格、因素与因素之间的相关关系，以结构关系的形式直观体现了概算价格的形成规律，为开展科学的概算价格论证奠定了基础。     

我国军品定价的一种过渡模式：第三方定价机制

第三方定价机制作为军品定价的过渡模式，可以摆脱相关利益纠葛，突破成本信息壁垒，降低执行成本，推进军品价格管理改革进程。为实现第三方定价机制，应寻找合适的第三方定价工作受托方群体。构建科学的优选和筛选机制，严格考评和监督，完善相关法律法规体系。     

基于向量自回归模型的舰船维修价格波动预警机制

针对舰船维修价格管理计划性较强和宏观经济环境复杂多变的矛盾,在对舰船维修价格波动预警机制分析的基础上,选取了舰船维修价格波动预警指标,设置了警限,建立了舰船维修价格波动预警指标体系。基于样本数据相关性、平稳性和协整性检验分析结果,引入非平稳时间序列建模方法,建立了舰船维修价格波动的向量自回归预警模型,借助Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析对模型进行动态分析,并优化了预警模型。最后,基于优化模型预测舰船维修价格波动趋势,进行了预警分析。     

Revenue maximization in two-station tandem queueing systems

We study optimal pricing for tandem queueing systems with finite buffers. The service provider dynamically quotes prices to incoming price sensitive customers to maximize the long-run average revenue. We present a Markov decision process model for the optimization problem. For systems with two stations, general-sized buffers, and two or more prices, we describe the structure of the optimal dynamic pricing policy and develop tailored policy iteration algorithms to find an optimal pricing policy. For systems with two stations but no intermediate buffer, we characterize conditions under which quoting either a high or a low price to all customers is optimal and provide an easy-to-implement algorithm to solve the problem. Numerical experiments are conducted to compare the developed algorithms with the regular policy iteration algorithm. The work also discusses possible extensions of the obtained results to both three-station systems and two-station systems with price and congestion sensitive customers using numerical analysis.     

Bayesian strategies for dynamic pricing in e‐commerce

E‐commerce platforms afford retailers unprecedented visibility into customer purchase behavior and provide an environment in which prices can be updated quickly and cheaply in response to changing market conditions. This study investigates dynamic pricing strategies for maximizing revenue in an Internet retail channel by actively learning customers' demand response to price. A general methodology is proposed for dynamically pricing information goods, as well as other nonperishable products for which inventory levels are not an essential consideration in pricing. A Bayesian model of demand uncertainty involving the Dirichlet distribution or a mixture of such distributions as a prior captures a wide range of beliefs about customer demand. We provide both analytic formulas and efficient approximation methods for updating these prior distributions after sales data have been observed. We then investigate several strategies for sequential pricing based on index functions that consider both the potential revenue and the information value of selecting prices. These strategies require a manageable amount of computation, are robust to many types of prior misspecification, and yield high revenues compared to static pricing and passive learning approaches. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Optimal state-dependent pricing policies for a class of stochastic multiunit service systems

This paper models a k-unit service system (e.g., a repair, maintenance, or rental facility) with Poisson arrivals, exponential service times, and no queue. If we denote the number of units that are busy as the state of the system, the state-dependent pricing model formalizes the intuitive notion that when most units are idle, the price (i.e., the service charge per unit time) should be low, and when most units are busy, the price should be higher than the average. A computationally efficient algorithm based on a nonlinear programming formulation of the problem is provided for determination of the optimal state-dependent prices. The procedure ultimately reduces to the search on a single variable in an interval to determine the unique intersection point of a concave increasing function and a linear decreasing function. The algorithm takes, on the average, only about 1/2 second per problem on the IBM 360/65 (FORTRAN G Compiler). A discrete optimal-control approach to the problem is shown to result in essentially the same procedure as the nonlinear-programming formulation. Several properties of the optimal state-dependent prices are given. Comparisons of the optimal values of the objective function for the state-dependent and state-independent pricing policies show that the former is on the average, only about 0.7% better than the latter, which may explain partly why state-dependent pricing is not prevalent in many service systems. Potential generalizations of the model are discussed.     

Multi‐item capacitated lot‐sizing problems with setup times and pricing decisions

We study a multi‐item capacitated lot‐sizing problem with setup times and pricing (CLSTP) over a finite and discrete planning horizon. In this class of problems, the demand for each independent item in each time period is affected by pricing decisions. The corresponding demands are then satisfied through production in a single capacitated facility or from inventory, and the goal is to set prices and determine a production plan that maximizes total profit. In contrast with many traditional lot‐sizing problems with fixed demands, we cannot, without loss of generality, restrict ourselves to instances without initial inventories, which greatly complicates the analysis of the CLSTP. We develop two alternative Dantzig–Wolfe decomposition formulations of the problem, and propose to solve their relaxations using column generation and the overall problem using branch‐and‐price. The associated pricing problem is studied under both dynamic and static pricing strategies. Through a computational study, we analyze both the efficacy of our algorithms and the benefits of allowing item prices to vary over time. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Revenue management: A real options approach

Revenue management is the process of actively managing inventory or capacity to maximize revenues. The active management typically occurs through managerial levers such as price, promotion, or availability. We present a novel real options approach to revenue management that is specifically suited to the car rental business. We illustrate the concept with actual car rental data. The model produces minimally acceptable prices and inventory release quantities (number of cars available for rent at a given price) as a function of remaining time and available inventory. The pricing and inventory release recommendations of the developed model confirm earlier empirical analysis that suggested current practises discount too deeply early in the booking cycle. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

中国收费公路制度改革的利益机制设计

收费公路是我国市场化改革延伸到基础设施的重大举措。收费公路已经被作为一种商品在向市场提供,且公路特殊性,使得收费公路产业具有明显的自然垄断性。在公路收费定价优势信息的主导下,在收费公路定价方面通行者处于明显劣势地位。本文希望通过利益机制的设计来提升通行者在收费公路定价博弈中的地位,通过利益机制设计中的激励与约束使公路收费定价者会倾向于选择更公平、公正的价格。     

Some implications of pricing bundles

In this article, we consider a problem in which two suppliers can sell their respective products both individually and together as a bundle, and study the impact of bundle pricing. Four pricing models (centralized, decentralized, coop–comp, and comp–coop) are analyzed with regard to the competition formats and sequences. As one would expect, the firms are always better off when pricing decisions are centralized. However, rather surprisingly, we find that firms may be worse off if the bundle prices are set in a cooperative way; we provide analytical characterization of those instances. Numerical studies show that these insights also hold for some nonlinear demand. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Coordination of pricing and inventory control across products

We consider the joint pricing and inventory‐control problem for a retailer who orders, stocks, and sells two products. Cross‐price effects exist between the two products, which means that the demand of each product depends on the prices of both products. We derive the optimal pricing and inventory‐control policy and show that this policy differs from the base‐stock list‐price policy, which is optimal for the one‐product problem. We find that the retailer can significantly improve profits by managing the two products jointly as opposed to independently, especially when the cross‐price demand elasticity is high. We also find that the retailer can considerably improve profits by using dynamic pricing as opposed to static pricing, especially when the demand is nonstationary. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Supply chain coordination with shelf‐space and retail price dependent demand and heterogeneous retailers

We consider supply chain coordination in which a manufacturer supplies some product to multiple heterogeneous retailers and wishes to coordinate the supply chain via wholesale price and holding cost subsidy. The retail price is either exogenous or endogenous. The market demand is described by the market share attraction model based on all retailers'shelf‐spaces and retail prices. We obtain optimal solutions for the centralized supply chain, where the optimal retail pricing is a modified version of the well‐known cost plus pricing strategy. We further get feasible contracts for the manufacturer to coordinate the hybrid and decentralized supply chains. The manufacturer can allocate the total profit free to himself and the retail market via the wholesale price when the retail price is exogenous, but otherwise he cannot. Finally, we point out that different characteristics of the retail market are due to different powers of the manufacturer, and the more power the manufacturer has, the simpler the contract to coordinate the chain will be. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Competition under time‐varying demands and dynamic lot sizing costs

We develop a competitive pricing model which combines the complexity of time‐varying demand and cost functions and that of scale economies arising from dynamic lot sizing costs. Each firm can replenish inventory in each of the T periods into which the planning horizon is partitioned. Fixed as well as variable procurement costs are incurred for each procurement order, along with inventory carrying costs. Each firm adopts, at the beginning of the planning horizon, a (single) price to be employed throughout the horizon. On the basis of each period's system of demand equations, these prices determine a time series of demands for each firm, which needs to service them with an optimal corresponding dynamic lot sizing plan. We establish the existence of a price equilibrium and associated optimal dynamic lotsizing plans, under mild conditions. We also design efficient procedures to compute the equilibrium prices and dynamic lotsizing plans.© 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009