Why internal conflict deteriorates state capacity? Evidence from Colombian municipalities

Previous work has documented a negative correlation between internal conflict and state capacity. We attempt to shed light on mechanisms that underlie this relationship, using data for Colombian municipalities. We rely on identifying heterogeneous effects of different types of violent events on state capacity, taking advantage of variability across municipalities in the prevalence of specific manifestations of conflict and their intensity. Our findings suggest that events making civilians feel targeted affect the state’s capacity to collect taxes, while those reflecting a stronger military capacity of illegal armies, in particular their large-scale attacks, affect the state’s capacity to provide public goods.     

Why did Sudan Lose a small war in Southern Sudan?

ABSTRACT

When on the wrong end of an asymmetry in the projection of hard power, weaker sides countenance the grim arithmetic of avoiding direct and massed confrontations. Invariably, insurgents have over the ages tended to employ indirect tactical methods to render their stronger opponents ineffective. Ultimately – interest asymmetry, regime type, asymmetries of strategy, and external intervention – combine in a complex interplay and pattern, to militate against a strong side. In Sudan, these factors interacted throughout the civil wars to produce regional autonomy and finally an independent South Sudan in 2011. Similar strategic logic had confronted many large African states battling insurgencies in Ethiopia, Angola, Nigeria, Zaire, and apartheid-era South Africa. Oftentimes, weakening public resolve has caused these governments to accommodate, capitulate or withdraw even if they try not to blink. Notwithstanding the regime type, it can be concluded that the majority of strong actors are prone to fail in a protracted, asymmetric conflict. Hence, the notion of linking victory in counterinsurgency to the degree of openness (democratic polyarchies); or closeness (totalitarianism) – is still valid but highly contestable in the case of Africa’s large dysfunctional states.     

Accreditation Fraud in Brazilian Military Hospitals: Why “Tone at the Top” Matters

This article shows under which circumstances fraudulent accreditation can occur in Brazilian military hospitals, calling attention to the tone at the top as a critical aspect of military fraud deterrence – and hence as a critical aspect of this branch of military ethics. The problems allegedly found in Brazilian military health institutions were revealed through in-depth interviews conducted with 29 professionals who reported to work or have worked in a Brazilian military hospital. These fraud allegations were mostly associated with false documentation and procedures designed to give the appearance that legal requirements for accreditation were met and could be traced back to a weak or corrupt “tone at the top” coming from military higher ranks.     

Why provoke? the Sino-US competition in East Asia and North Korea’s strategic choice

This article seeks to make sense of North Korean provocations in light of the Sino-US strategic competition in post-Cold War East Asia, where such variables as China’s rise, US’s pivot to Asia, and growing Sino-ROK economic ties are driving the strategic choices of major states in the region. The article examines the main motivations behind Pyongyang’s provocations since the end of the Cold War, discusses their implications for the Sino-US strategic competition in East Asia, and offers predictions about the future of North Korean provocations. The central thesis of the article is that Pyongyang has exploited the Sino-US strategic competition in East Asia for its regime survival. By raising North Korea’s strategic value to China, the intensifying Sino-US competition allows Pyongyang to continue provocations, regardless of Beijing’s explicit opposition.     

Force deployment and the production of security: Why is the united states in NATO?

Standard economic concepts of production and cost minimization subject to a production constraint are used to derive the conditions of optimal deployment of home and forward military forces for the production of home security. United States' participation in the NATO alliance is then analyzed in the context of a two‐ally (U.S. and Western Europe) optimal force deployment model of NATO. Next, U.S. force‐basing policy is adduced as an enforcement mechanism for the “transatlantic contract.” Lastly, statistical evidence on burden sharing within Western Europe, and the effectiveness of the U.S. contract enforcement policy, is presented.     

那河,那桥,那人

记得那年两北驻圳,部队驻地紧靠大漠边缘,看惯了南国的郁郁葱葱,初次接触到塞外的辽阔荒凉,大家在感慨汀山如此多娇的同时,格外关注看似不经意的生命气息。即使是一泓清泉、一棵胡杨,也能让大家兴奋不已。因为在战士眼中,生命在此刻不光演绎着生存延续的本能,更传递着自强不息、顽强拼搏的奋斗基因。     

“讲授,研讨,引导,定位“教学法构想

为了适应素质教育要求“９８１３”综合战术演习突出了一个“放”字,取得了较好的效果,同时也暴露了战术教学中的一些薄弱环节。本文分析了其原因,并在突出培养学员创新精神,提高其综合素质的思想指导下,提出了“讲授,研讨,引导,定位”教学法。     

五参数寿命分布S(α,β,λ,μ,δ)

在四参数寿命分布的基础上增加了一个非中心参数,进而提出五参数寿命分布S(α,β,λ,μ,δ),并给出了定义、基本性质及其证明。     

Comment: Why “an identified systemic model of the democracy‐peace nexus” does not persuade*

In their article in this journal, James, Solberg and Wolfson (1999) challenge our findings that two states are more likely to have peaceful relations if they are both democratic. They claim to develop a simultaneous system of two equations showing that peace and democracy foster each other, and that the effect of peace in encouraging democracy is stronger than that of democracy on peace. Their analysis, however, is flawed. Their research design employs measures of dispute and joint democracy that are inferior to those now common in the literature, and their equation for predicting peace is not properly specified. These problems distort their results. Even so, their results provide evidence of the pacific benefits of democracy. Analyses we conduct with a more completely specified model reveal stronger support for the democratic “ peace. Furthermore, a test of the effect of interstate conflict on democracy should be done at the national (or monadic) level of analysis; but James et al. perform a dyadic analysis. In a monadic test using vector autoregression, we find that disputes make no contribution to explaining the character of regimes. Even with their dyadic method, their finding that peace promotes democracy is not robust Including a crucial control variable, the ratio of militarily relevant national capabilities, that James et al. omitted, dramatically alters their findings.     

Why do they serve? Changes and differences in motives of Danish soldiers deployed to peace-keeping and peace-enforcing missions

This paper investigates what motivates young people to volunteer for peace-keeping or peace-enforcing missions and how their motives change between pre- and post-deployment. Data include information about social and military background, and motives for more than 600 soldiers, 444 of whom answered the survey both before and after deployment. Soldiers are deployed to different missions under the same circumstances. To conceptualize motives among soldiers, we use factor analysis and find three factors: challenge, self-benefit, and fidelity. Challenge represents an occupational orientation; fidelity, an institutional orientation; and self-benefit, a desire for adventure. Exploiting the within-subject design of our data, we find that pre- and post-deployment motives vary significantly according to the type of mission and soldiers’ previous experiences (first-timers or experienced soldiers). Our results suggest that after the mission, peace-keepers are generally more disappointed than peace-enforcers. Our results also show that self-benefit motives are important for younger soldiers with only a high school education, and that this group usually serves as peace-enforcers during their gap year.     

求和平,促发展,谋合作

中华民族历来热爱和平。中国人民深刻认识到,只有通过和平方式实现的发展才是持久、牢靠的发展,也才是既有利于中国人民也有利于世界各国人民的发展。中国将坚定不移地走和平发展道路,既通过争取和平的国际环境来发展自己,又通过自己的发展来促进世界和平。中国将坚持对外开放的基本国策,广泛开展国际合作,不断优化投资环境、开放市场,同世界各国实现互利共赢。事实证明,中国的发展不会妨碍任何人,也不会威胁任何人,只会有利于世界的和平、稳定、繁荣。求和平,促发展,谋合作     

看出来,站出来,豁出来

看出来,站出来,豁出来杜渺中央电视台在《新闻联播》中报道,大庆的群众称赞油田的共产党员平时能看出来,关键时刻能站出来,危险关头能豁出来。这三句看似平常的话,却道出了共产党员应有的条件和品德,道出了共产党员在群众中的崇高威望。“共产党员平时能看出来”,...     

抓住机遇,不负众望,创造辉煌!

党的“十六大”报告中指出“纵观全局,21世纪头20年,对我国来说,是必须紧紧抓住并可以有所作为的战略机遇期。”这是党中央对我国面临的国际形势做出的一个重大判断。这个判断关系到国家改革和发展大局。江泽民同志在“十六大”报告中对于国防科技工业的各方面工作提出了“深化国防科技工业体制改革,坚持寓军于民,建立     

小兵上大课,然后,之然后

兰空高炮某团军官集训课常。台上口若悬河讲课的是戴着"拐"的一名小兵;台下专心记着笔记的是扛着"星"的一群军官。这是怎么回事呢?请看——小兵上大课——军事大比武的意外"收获""12号方向搜捕目标","好,好……报告目标捕住",高低炮手比武场地口号洪亮;开闩,装弹,拉闩,装填手比武场地选手们鼓足了劲地猛拼;雷达方舱     

每天,有梦,有三千米

总是有这种感觉,往往当你专心于某件事的时候就忘记了时间。通常我都会去田径场跑上三千米。     

四参数寿命分布S(α,β,λ,μ)

本文提出一个具有密度函数 (α>0,β≠0,λ>0,μ≥0)的四参数寿命分布S(α,β,λ,μ),然后证明了它的一些基本性质,据形状参数对(α,β)的不同取值,找出了失效率λ(t)关于时间t的五种变化规律:不变;递减;递增;先增后减;先减后增,并显示出不变失效率是其余四种失效率当(α,β)→(1,1)时的极限。