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A dynamic multi-stage decision-theoretic approach is introduced to establish the optimal offset and its incidence, the contract price arising from bargaining, and the scale of the acquisition. A new rationale is suggested for offsets in terms of their role as an insurance devise. Results are derived for the pricing of delivery contracts subject to offset claims and their national security implications. It is shown that the national security is strictly convex in the offset transaction. As to the incidence of the offset, the offset claim is shown to be capitalised in the delivery price. The bargaining price is shown to depend on the value of the product to be delivered for the national security, the relative negotiation power of the contracting partners and the social cost of public funds. The analysis highlights the expectation effects of offsets on the bargaining price and the scale of delivery. The results aid in explaining why offsets are widely used in procurement contracts for defence materiel. As they contribute to the national security, they should be allowed to survive and not be denied under competition laws. 相似文献
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针对古代战争研究与当今国防建设缺乏关联的问题,首次就钓鱼城保卫战经典战例对我国现代国防建设的启示意义作了研究。分析钓鱼城城池选址"独"与"险"的地理关系、筑城布局内容和多层综合防御体系这三者对战争胜利的关键影响,提出在当前国防工程规划与建设中借鉴其成功经验的观点,并从工程宏观选址、多城池防御的联防体系及军民联合的防御模式等三方面就其经验和启示意义进行归纳与总结。 相似文献
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Robert Czulda 《Defense & Security Analysis》2020,36(2):201-217
ABSTRACTThe paper’s goal is to analyses the potential of the Iranian defence industry, including both research-and-development and production capabilities. It is argued that, despite official statements about the great power and sophistication of the Iranian defence industry, in reality its capabilities are very limited and cannot meet the operational needs of the Iranian armed forces. At the same time, it is argued that many official releases, which are abundantly available in the Iranian press and often unthinkingly repeated by the Western media, do not present the real and value of military products, but are rather a tool for deception and propaganda. 相似文献
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Leandro Bolzan de Rezende Paul Blackwell Marcos Degaut 《Defense & Security Analysis》2018,34(4):385-409
ABSTRACTWith the world’s ninth largest economy and comprising nearly 60% of South America’s GDP, 47% of its territory, and 49% of its population, Brazil has become a regional power and an important actor in world affairs over recent decades. This scenario has led the government to re-evaluate its role in the world order, resulting in the enactment of the National Defence Policy, whose objective was to consolidate the country as a regional power while at the same time addressing national security issues, promoting economic development through a series of defence programmes, restructuring the defence industrial base, fostering innovation through technology and knowledge transfer to Brazil, and indigenous research and development. However, the policy’s implementation suffers from several challenges discussed in this article, which may test the capability and competence of Brazilian policymakers, military, industrialists, and other individuals and organisations involved in its implementation. 相似文献
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Adam D.M. Svendsen 《Defense & Security Analysis》2015,31(1):58-73
This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain. 相似文献
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John Arquilla 《Journal of Military Ethics》2013,12(1):80-87
For many years after its introduction in the early 1990s, the cyberwar concept - which outlined a new mode of conflict that would emphasize disruption of information systems and flows - was given little credence. Over the past several years, however, cyberwars of both irregular and somewhat more conventional types have erupted (e.g., see respectively Estonia in 2007 and Georgia in 2008). Global awareness of cyberwar has risen sharply, and many nation-states are preparing their defenses, as well as their capabilities for mounting offensive operations. The American military's declaration in 2011 that cyberspace is a 'warfighting domain' highlights a need to explore the ethical implications and nuances of cyberwar. This article finds that classic jus ad bellum constructs come under great pressure from cyberwar, while jus in bello concerns may prove more manageable. Another key theme is that disproportionate attention is given to the notion of employing cyberwar 'strategically' (i.e., to strike directly at other nations' infrastructures), where its use is less likely to achieve 'victory' and is more problematic ethically. Instead, a focus on the application of cyberwar techniques in battle may lead to shorter, less bloody, 'more ethical' conflicts. 相似文献
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互联网的发展加速了权力分散,对我国的国家安全尤其是文化安全维护提出了新的问题。当前,我国社会进入新时代发展阶段,社会主要矛盾发生重要变化。与互联网尤其是网络文化安全有关的风险和挑战不断增多,互联网已经成为文化安全斗争的主战场。如何直面挑战,着力维护网络文化安全,提出队伍建设、舆论阵地和平台建设、维护手段、思维和素养、机制和法规建设的对策方法。 相似文献
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Kenneth Boutin 《Defense & Security Analysis》2018,34(3):232-248
ABSTRACTIn analysing trends in Chinese defence engagement and their impact on defence development in African states, it is important to consider both China's changing policy priorities and its capabilities for the provision of defence support. China's international ambitions and its economic development contribute to its emergence as a key supporter of defence capability development in Africa, occupying a crucial niche as a provider of support, particularly arms transfers, appropriate to evolving local requirements. The economic and politico-military imperatives driving China's engagement of Africa, which stem from its economic reforms and re-emergence as a great power, are facilitating defence modernisation by accelerating the introduction of modern arms in substantial quantities. The commercial importance of arms exports and the growing importance of strategic ties strongly situate China to help sustain processes of defence capability development in African states over the long term. 相似文献
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对赛博空间和赛博战概念进行解析,研究了赛博安全、赛博空间、赛博力量、赛博作战等领域所面临的威胁与挑战,认为赛博优势和赛博能力决定了一个国家在下一轮军事和综合国力较量中的地位。从国家赛博安全战略、信息基础设施建设和赛博力量建设等方面,给出了应对赛博空间威胁与挑战的思考与策略。 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThe aim of the current study is to discuss which particular factors Russia considers as sufficient deterrent capabilities and whether the national defence models implemented in the Baltic countries have the potential to deter Russia's military planners and political leadership. Whilst the existing conventional reserves of NATO are sizeable, secure, and rapid, deployment is still a critical variable in case of a conflict in the Baltic countries because of the limited range of safe transportation options. However, whilst the Baltic States are developing their capabilities according to the priorities defined by NATO in 2010; which were updated after the invasion of Crimea in 2014, Russian military planners have meanwhile redesigned both their military doctrine and military forces, learning from the experience of the Russo-Georgian war, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other recent confrontations. Accordingly, there is a risk that the efforts of the Baltic countries could prove rather inefficient in deterring Russia. 相似文献
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Christian Leuprecht Joseph Szeman David B. Skillicorn 《Contemporary Security Policy》2019,40(3):382-407
Cyberspace is a new domain of operation, with its own characteristics. Cyber weapons differ qualitatively from kinetic ones: They generate effects by non-kinetic means through information, technology, and networks. Their properties, opportunities, and constraints are comparable to the qualitative difference between conventional and nuclear weapons. New weapons and their target sets in a new domain raise a series of unresolved policy challenges at the domestic, bilateral, and international levels about deterrence, attribution, and response. They also introduce new risks: uncertainty about unintended consequences, expectations of efficacy, and uncertainty about both the target’s and the international community’s response. Cyber operations offer considerable benefits for states to achieve strategic objectives both covertly and overtly. However, without a strategic framework to contain and possibly deter their use, make state and non-state behavior more predictable in the absence of reciprocal norms, and limit their impact, an environment where states face persistent attacks that nonetheless fall below the threshold of armed conflict presents a policy dilemma that reinforces collective insecurity. 相似文献
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张青 《武警工程学院学报》2014,(5):21-24
国家安全委员会具有“内外兼备”的基本职能,即：将维护国家安全与创新社会治理、创新有效预防和化解社会矛盾体制、健全公共安全体系等内政事务并列并举,在维护国内安全稳定方面也肩负重任。它较之现今的“国安领导小组”更为广泛和重要,是一个应对有别于国家日常工作之外的应急的危机管理机构,是应对可能的、突发的、潜在的对国家安全、利益构成威胁的前瞻性机构。 相似文献
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杨坤 《中国人民武装警察部队学院学报》2014,30(11):73-77
当前,边境安全形势复杂、训练理念陈旧、部队勤训矛盾突出、训练内容与安排不合理、训练保障能力有限等主客观因素,制约着公安现役部队非战争军事行动训练的开展,对公安现役部队形成非战争军事行动战斗力构成了挑战。树立科学的非战争军事行动训练指导思想与理念,创新训练方法和手段,优化训练内容,加强教员队伍建设和训练基地建设,是改进非战争军事行动训练的有效对策。 相似文献
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The past decade has seen substantial shifts in Swedish security policy and major change in the domestic debate about NATO. For the first time, all of the right-of-centre “alliance parties” are calling for a full NATO membership, and popular support for NATO has increased. Yet public opinion contains ambiguities and paradoxes that complicate the picture. At the same time as support for NATO has increased, the public is overwhelmingly for continued military non-alignment. Drawing on previous research, longitudinal data from national surveys, and other sources on defence and security issues, this article aims to increase our understanding of the development and change in Swedish public opinion on NATO. A key argument is that Erving Goffman’s theatre metaphor, combined with neo-institutional decoupling theory, to a large degree can help understand the public opinion paradox. 相似文献