The financing factor in military trade

Available sources value transfers of weapons irrespective of whether they are paid for and how. Data from the U.S. indicates that the shares of arms given for free or on credit are high. If other arms exporters, all military aid and all credits used for military purposes are considered, which is done here on the basis of rough estimates and an opportunity cost model, the true cash costs of weapons in the year of the actual transfer are small. On the other hand, the financial burden of earlier arms imports via debt service has grown over time. It most probably exceeded the true cash cost of imports of arms in the late 1980s. Large differences between arms transfer data and the actual true costs of arms transfers means that analysis of the economic effects of arms imports without considering these financial aspects makes little sense.     

Is Russia a revisionist military power in the Arctic?

In contrast with a widespread perception of Russia as an expansionist power in the Arctic, this article argues that Moscow does not seek military superiority in the region. Rather, Moscow's military strategies in the Arctic pursue three major goals: first, to demonstrate and ascertain Russia's sovereignty over its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf in the region; second, to protect its economic interests in the High North; and third, to demonstrate that Russia retains its great power status and still has world-class military capabilities. The Russian military modernization programs are quite modest and aim at upgrading the Russian armed forces in the High North rather than providing them with additional offensive capabilities or provoking a regional arms race. The Russian ambitions in the Arctic may be high, but they are not necessarily implying the intentions and proper capabilities to confront other regional players by military means. On the contrary, Moscow opts for soft rather than hard power strategy in the Arctic.     

Financial versus human resources in the Greek‐Turkish arms race: A forecasting investigation using artificial neural networks

This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large, extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.     

Arming China: Major powers’ arms transfers to the People’s Republic of China

The rise of China has been fuelled by a massive military modernisation programme relying, in large part, on the acquisition of foreign military equipment. The question of how the world’s major powers define their arms transfer policies towards China is therefore crucially important. This article makes two original contributions. First, drawing on neoclassical realism, it proposes an explanatory framework integrating international and domestic factors to explain variations in major powers’ arms transfers. Second, based on a large body of elite interviews and diplomatic cables, it offers the first comprehensive comparison of American, British, French and Russian arms transfer policies towards China since the end of the Cold War.     

军事欺骗战法分析的数学方法-理论*

针对军事欺骗战法定量分析困难的问题，采用基于贝叶斯统计推断和博弈均衡分析的数学方法在理论上为解决此难题提供了一种可行的方法。该方法首先定义基本概率矩阵，然后根据贝叶斯原理为交战双方构造用于统计推断的主观概率矩阵，并在由两个主观概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链与实施军事欺骗机会之间建立了对应关系。再将此关系推广到基本概率矩阵，即是否存在实施军事欺骗的机会将由基本概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链决定。数学分析表明：对于2×2基本概率矩阵，这样的偏序链长度为3、总数为8，通过对这些偏序链的分析。可以为军事欺骗战法的研究和运用提供科学依据。     

战区一体化装备保障组织形式

针对未来信息化条件下作战中如何科学合理地组织战区装备保障力量的问题,借鉴外军经验,立足我军实际,从整体保障效能目标出发,区分诸军兵种一体、各层次各专业一体、军民一体3个层面,分别提出了三军联合保障、纵横联动保障、军地综合保障3类一体化装备保障组织形式。研究结果可为构建具有我军特色的＂大保障＂体制,加快提升战区部队体系保障能力提供理论指导。     

唐朝兵役制度和后勤制度变迁下的军事审计

唐朝是中国历史上最为强大的王朝之一,其军事实力可谓中国历史的巅峰。唐朝国祚在安史之乱后还延续了150余年,唐朝的兵役制度和后勤制度对其内外军事斗争及政权的发展和延续起到了重要作用。在军事审计的保驾护航之下,唐朝的兵役及后勤制度为其初期开疆拓土与后期定土戡乱均提供了有力支持。本文以唐朝历史的衍进为线索,以唐朝兵役制度和军事后勤制度的变迁为背景,剖析唐朝军事审计制度的特点与规律,详述军事审计主体、对象、方法、法规在这一时期的发展与变化,进而探究军事审计与兵役、后勤制度的关联,总结提炼出军事审计在国家兵役、后勤制度和国家安全方面发挥的重要作用,为现阶段军事审计更好服务于军事制度提供发展思路。     

Brothers in arms,yet again? Twenty-first century Sino-Russian strategic collaboration in the realm of defence and security

2014–2015 were years of turmoil for strategic relations, with Sino-Russian relations emerging as a particularly interesting set of ties to observe. This article asks whether recurrent Sino-Russian exhortations of friendship are mirrored by their strategic alignment in the defence and security realm, half a century after the end of the Sino-Soviet pact during the communist era. We examine the arms trade between the two countries and with regional partners, but also the recent pattern of bilateral and multilateral military exercises, as a combined test of the security and defence relationship. We are able to show that the image of friendship that both Moscow and Beijing like to promote, while apparent at the UN Security Council and within the BRICS group, remains constrained by rivalry in high-tech segments of the arms industry and by lingering concerns about the prospects of peer interference in their shared regional vicinity.     

军事法基市原则的反思与重构

军事法的基本原则是军事法律规范规律性的体现 ,是军事法制定的基础 ,是军事法适用的准则。军事法基本原则的概念及其特征如何 ?军事法基本原则的体系如何构建 ?军事法应该包括哪些基本原则 ?军事法的每个原则的具体内涵应该是什么 ?这些都是值得军事法学界予以关注和探讨的重大学术问题     

近年来军事法学若干基础理论问题研究述论

军事法学基础理论研究水平的高低,直接反映了这一学科理论创新发展的程度.基础理论研究的不断深化,有助于促进学科理论体系趋于成熟和完善.近年来,军事法学基础理论研究不断深入发展,在诸多方面取得了重要研究成果.军事法学研究者围绕军事法的概念与调整范围、军事法的独立部门法地位、军事权、军事法体系以及军事法学研究方法等学科基础问题进行了富有成效的创新研究,有力提升了军事法学理论研究的学术水准,将军事法学研究推进到新的发展阶段.     

Strategic hedging in Indonesia’s defense diplomacy

With the rapid pace of regional arms modernization and unresolved territorial disputes, Indonesia is increasingly susceptible to the impact of emerging great power rivalry in Asia-Pacific. Rather than pursuing a robust military build-up, Indonesian policy-makers assert that diplomacy is the country’s first line of defense. This article argues that defense diplomacy serves two agenda of Indonesia’s hedging strategy – strategic engagement and military modernization. This way, Indonesian defense and security officials seek to moderate the impact of geopolitical changes while maintaining the country’s defensive ability against regional uncertainties.     

人工智能在各军事强国的发展

世界主要军事力量认识到人工智能这一新科技的影响力,并积极置身于这一新的发展机遇。文章从公开的报道的信息来源,整理分析中、美、俄、以四国的军事人工智能发展现状。研究表明,人工智能技术作为当今科技热点,正在以前所未有的方式影响我们生活的方方面面,也深刻的改变着军事领域的作战方式、作战理论。     

How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons

Many observers anticipate “arms races” between states seeking to deploy artificial intelligence (AI) in diverse military applications, some of which raise concerns on ethical and legal grounds, or from the perspective of strategic stability or accident risk. How viable are arms control regimes for military AI? This article draws a parallel with the experience in controlling nuclear weapons, to examine the opportunities and pitfalls of efforts to prevent, channel, or contain the militarization of AI. It applies three analytical lenses to argue that (1) norm institutionalization can counter or slow proliferation; (2) organized “epistemic communities” of experts can effectively catalyze arms control; (3) many military AI applications will remain susceptible to “normal accidents,” such that assurances of “meaningful human control” are largely inadequate. I conclude that while there are key differences, understanding these lessons remains essential to those seeking to pursue or study the next chapter in global arms control.     

浅析俄罗斯军事刑罚制度对我国的启示

我国军事刑法与俄罗斯军事刑法都分别在本国的普通刑法中用专章加以规定,相似之处很多。在军事刑罚方面,俄罗斯有很多专门针对军人、军事犯罪的特别刑罚很值得我国借鉴。对比中国和俄罗斯两国的军事刑罚,找出我国在军事刑罚方面的不足之处,借鉴俄罗斯军事刑罚制度中的可取之处,完善我国的军事刑罚制度,使之更适应我国军事、国防的发展需要,有利于预防军事、军人犯罪,提高我国军队战斗力。     

功能性军事体能训练与心理训练结合运用探索——以新兵体能训练为例

在军队改革的大环境下，军事训练从难从严向实战化聚焦将成为日常训练的常态，而体能训练就是其中最为基础和重要的训练。但是，现阶段的军事体能训练仍然存在着训练理论不系统、训练方法不科学、相关心理指导和心理训练缺乏等弱点，从而造成体能训练成绩提升缓慢、训练损伤居高不下的问题。本文运用功能性军事体能训练和心理训练相结合的方法，从新兵体能训练着手，对其进行身心干预，旨在增强心理适应能力、提高训练成绩、减少训练损伤，为提高部队实战化训练水平打下基础。     

军事院校强化训练阶段学员训练损伤的分析与预防

军事院校强化训练期间学员承受着大强度的训练任务,从生理机能角度来说,伤病难以避免,严重的损伤会造成训练的滞后,对学员的身心造成一定的负面影响.研究这一阶段训练损伤发生的机理、特点以及预防措施,成为近年来军事院校军事训练探索的一个重点.通过归纳分析强化训练阶段学员常见损伤的原因、类型,提出了有效的预防措施,以期达到减少学员训练损伤的目的。     

先秦兵书军事装备用语例释

军事装备的发展对军事思想、作战方式和手段,以及军队组织结构的变革具有重大影响。先秦时期多部兵法著作中涉及到了大量的军事装备用语。在对先秦兵书军事装备用语的例释研究中,可以使我们从感性上升到理性体会古典军事装备用语的独特魅力。     

The impotence of conventional arms control: why do international regimes fail when they are most needed?

Amid tensions with the West over Ukraine, Russia pulled out of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe in March 2015. The Russian case is another example of a country disengaging from conventional arms control when relations with other member states deteriorate. This raises an important question: can arms control regimes aimed at preventing conflict survive periods of tension and preserve peace? This article argues no. It demonstrates that the prospect and stability of conventional arms control regimes depend on healthy international relations. In times of tension, governments rely on military institutions for advice and absorb military biases incompatible with arms control. Therefore, these regimes fail when most needed and are impotent as instruments of peace. Beyond conventional arms control, the article hints at the fragility of nuclear agreements such as the 2015 Iran deal and the 2010 New START between the United States and Russia.     

军事供应链不确定性产生机理研究

军事供应链中不可避免地存在不确定性。构建了军事供应链不确定性产生机理的概念模型,从需求、供应、环境三个方面分析了军事供应链不确定性产生的原因,同时,对军事供应链中可能存在的各种不确定性进行了讨论,明确了加剧不确定性影响的因素是军事供应链系统的复杂性。具体表现为军事供应链成员交互关系的复杂性和军事供应链网络结构的复杂性。提出正是由于这两个原因的存在,对军事供应链的保障性能产生了巨大的影响。     

军事欺骗战法分析的数学方法-应用

针对军事欺骗战法定量分析困难的问题,采用基于贝叶斯统计推断和博弈均衡分析的数学方法,在理论上为解决此难题提供了一种可行的方法。该方法首先定义基本概率矩阵,然后根据贝叶斯原理为交战双方构造用于统计推断的主观概率矩阵,并在由两个主观概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链与实施军事欺骗机会之间建立对应关系,再将此关系推广到基本概率矩阵,即是否存在实施军事欺骗的机会将由基本概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链决定。对理论成果的初步应用表明：通过分析由战场情报信息构成的基本概率矩阵的偏序链,可以科学地运用军事欺骗和反军事欺骗战法。