A DEMAND-SIDE APPROACH TO FIGHTING SMALL ARMS PROLIFERATION

Small arms and light weapons (SALW) can be used and re-used as long as demand for them exists. They often outlast fragile peace agreements and fuel post-conflict crime. Local-level approaches to fighting SALW proliferation focus on reducing the demand for guns and promoting alternative methods of conflict resolution. Policy-makers, whose aim should be to address the structure within which SALW circulate, have failed to adequately address the demand side of the market. Governments, aid organisations, and regional and international bodies have concentrated their efforts to stem SALW proliferation in the realm of manufacturers and suppliers on one hand and responses to violent conflict on the other, thus failing to articulate and use the wide range of possible interventions.     

TRENDS AND MARKERS

Cambodia is a typical example of a post-conflict country where the lack of easily available data to guide policy design is one of the fundamental challenges to be addressed. While Cambodia has benefited from sustained Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) collection and destruction programmes since 1998, these have not been accompanied by any data analysis on the impact of gun proliferation and use or on these destruction programmes. In 2005, the Small Arms Survey (SAS) collected data on firearm morbidity and mortality spanning the last ten years. The objective was to develop methods that can be used for data generation in countries without systematic data collection. Using hospital admissions records and a review of the main English newspaper, the data shows that collection and destruction programmes have made a significant difference to human security in Cambodia. The study also reveals that even where no official data is available in a country, researchers can often derive useful indicators.     

C2组织行为分析及测试问题描述

针对C2组织闭环测试需求,分析了C2组织的组成要素及要素的数据属性,从C2组织的行为主体或对象角度划分C2组织行为为全局行为和局部(或个体)行为,描述了C2组织的行为过程,提出了C2组织测试的问题及问题的描述。     

The “yellow rain” controversy: Lessons for arms control compliance

Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam recently announced that they are launching nuclear energy programs, and Malaysia and the Philippines soon may follow suit. As a result, by 2020, at least three states in Southeast Asia could possess latent nuclear capabilities—the option to pursue military applications of dual-use nuclear technology. Analysis of the nuclear programs, domestic proliferation pressures, and the external threat environment in Southeast Asia leads the authors to conclude that the nuclear intentions of states in that region are entirely peaceful and the probability of future nuclear breakout there is low. However, this finding does not justify complacency. In the long term, the benign outlook for regional security may change, and in the near term weak regulatory regimes present serious challenges to nuclear safety and create opportunities that non-state actors may exploit. To minimize these risks, the authors recommend creating a “proliferation firewall” around the region, which would combine strong global support for Southeast Asian nuclear energy programs with innovative regional multilateral nuclear arrangements.     

THE PROLIFERATION SECURITY INITIATIVE

The Asia-Pacific is emerging as a critical region in the fight against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is an aggressive global strategy designed to interdict the transport of these weapons and associated technologies. However, some observers have suggested that the Asia-Pacific has given the PSI a less than enthusiastic reception. The authors posit a more sanguine view. They caution against taking such a holistic approach to the region. Asia does not speak with one voice when it comes to security, and opposition to the PSI is not as widespread nor deep-rooted as may have been anticipated. In addition, the PSI's informal structure encourages flexibility, enabling states to participate in certain activities while eschewing others that may be technically or politically untenable.     

序列近似优化方法及其在火箭外形快速设计中的应用

针对序列近似优化方法在代理模型构造与采样策略等方面的不足,基于采样点局部密度,引入与局部密度成反比的样本点影响体积概念,通过优化总影响体积确定径向基函数最优核宽度,满足序列近似优化过程不同规模、非均匀样本条件下的函数近似需要;建立潜在可行域最大距离加点准则,并与潜在最优加点准则结合平衡算法的探索能力与开发能力;建立三步收敛判定准则;构建改进序列近似优化的算法流程。对于Golinski减速器的优化设计问题,算法在目标函数调用42次后便搜索到全局最优解,体现了其良好的全局寻优能力与搜索效率。以"天航二号"火箭为例,建立其外形优化问题数学模型,所提优化方法在调用原始计算模型165次之后便搜索到全局最优解,大大提高了设计效率,同时飞行试验也表明设计结果满足要求。     

混合遗传算法及其在运载火箭最优上升轨道设计中的应用

运载火箭最优上升轨道设计问题是一类终端时刻未定、终端约束苛刻的最优控制问题,经典算法求解这类问题时收敛性差、局部收敛等问题表现得比较突出。针对上述问题,将具有良好全局收敛性的遗传算法应用到运载火箭最优上升段设计问题求解中,为了提高遗传算法的收敛速度和克服早熟问题,结合遗传算法和单纯型算法的优点,设计了两种混合遗传算法。计算结果表明,所设计的混合遗传算法是求解复杂问题的有效全局优化方法,可以成功地解决一类终端时刻可变飞行器最优控制问题。     

曲率分析的变分辨率数字高程模型建模算法

传统的数字高程模型一般采用规则网格划分以简化建模过程,因其网格密度缺乏对地形变化的自适应性而不能兼顾地形表达的准确度和地形数据的冗余度,导致其在车辆动力学仿真等领域的应用有所局限。针对这一问题提出一种基于曲率分析的随机节点分布建模方法,其数据节点的密度根据种子节点周围的局域曲面曲率变化而相应变化,实现了在复杂、曲率较大的地形区域自动生成高分辨率数字节点集,而在平缓、曲率较小的区域实现低分辨率的节点分布。在获得此种节点集的基础上,利用Delaunay三角剖分结合三次多项式插值算法,得到满足高精度和低数据冗余度的变分辨率数字高程模型。利用传统规则网格地形模型与所提出的变分辨率数字高程模型对同一个用于星球车动力学仿真的复杂野外地形进行对比,验证了变分辨率算法的有效性。     

结合全局与局部信息的主动轮廓分割模型

针对传统的基于区域的主动轮廓模型在分割灰度不均匀图像和噪声图像存在效果不佳的问题,提出结合全局项与局部项的主动轮廓分割模型。全局项由CV(Chan-Vese)模型的保真项构成,局部项的构建考虑局部区域信息的同时引入反映图像灰度特性的局部熵信息。依据图像灰度的特点,选择合理的全局项和局部项参数,并加入正则项保证曲线在演化过程中保持平滑,保障分割结果的可靠性。通过变分水平集方法最小化能量泛函,依据梯度下降流迭代更新水平集,完成曲线演化。采用模拟图像和实际图像进行实验分析,结果表明,所提出的结合全局项和局部项的主动轮廓模型可以高效地分割噪声严重以及灰度分布不均匀的图像。     

基于区域的小波变换图像压缩

由于小波变换的全局分解性,因而并不适用于固定形状（或对象）的图像分解。为了解决这个问题,本文提出了基于感兴趣区域的小波变换（RWT）,在计算复杂度上与现有算法相比有所减小。由于RWT算法仅仅处理原始图像中的区域部分,因而与传统的小波变换相比,它的计算复杂度要小的多。实验结果表明,图像中的任何区域都可用RwT算法分解,用R册逆运算完全重构。此外,在压缩比相同的情况下,由于RWT算法产生较少的高频的信息,因而要比形状自适应小波变换实用。     

含气膜孔涡轮叶片寿命可靠性设计优化中的网格参数化方法

为了自动实现含气膜孔涡轮叶片寿命的可靠性设计优化,减少其有限元计算时间成本,提出了含气膜孔涡轮叶片的非结构局部网格参数化方法.该网格参数化方法将叶片划分为参数化区域和非参数化区域,分别设计非参数化区域的网格以及参数化区域的网格控制点,更新气膜孔的形状和位置后,保持非参数化区域的网格不变,重构参数化区域的网格.相比于结构...     

基于粒子滤波的活动轮廓模型视频跟踪(英文)

跟踪变形目标包括假定目标的全局运动和时间方程的局部变形。粒子滤波算法依靠参数化法选择,但是不能处理曲线的拓扑变化。活动轮廓模型是独立参数化,可以比较好地适应拓扑变化。基于上面两个方法的局限性,将上述两种方法相结合,运用于变形目标的跟踪。实验结果证明,该方法有很强的鲁棒性,对部分遮挡的物体有很强的适应性,证明了该方法的有效性。     

TURKEY'S NUCLEAR COMEBACK

As worries have grown about global warming and the sustainability and price of fossil fuels, the demand for nuclear energy has increased, and nuclear power is increasingly viewed as a reliable and clean resource. However, the so-called nuclear renaissance coincides with an international security environment in which the norms of nuclear nonproliferation seem to be eroding. Turkey, a non-nuclear weapon state, plans to generate nuclear power to meet future energy demands, but it is aware of and concerned with regional proliferation trends. Questions have also been raised regarding Ankara's rationale for using nuclear energy, as well as its potential motivations and capabilities regarding future proliferation. This article will provide an overview of Turkey's nuclear energy history and plans, as well as the proliferation-related questions that could arise; it will also look at the domestic debate on nuclear energy and Turkey's status as a non-nuclear weapon state.     

二维约束点集Delaunay三角剖分算法研究

在已有算法基础上,提出了任意二维约束点集Delaunay三角剖分的新算法,算法仅在局部产生少量新点,并在局部对三角剖分进行修改,便可保证整体三角剖分符合Delaunay性质.     

基于区域分割的光学显微结核杆菌图像分割算法*

为了提高结核杆菌目标的分割精度,本文提出了一种基于区域级的光学显微结核杆菌图像分割算法。首先,通过顶帽-底帽变换增强彩色图像对比度,然后融合图像局部特征和全局信息计算图像梯度,在此基础上利用分水岭算法实现对图像的初始分割;对分割区域采用相邻区域最大相似度准则进行合并,从而得到完整的目标区域;最后根据结核杆菌图像的特点,通过分析结核杆菌目标区域的颜色特性,采用多阈值分割的方法滤除区域中的杂质,实现对结核杆菌目标的分割。实验结果表明,本算法可以分割出目标对比度低以及饱和度过低的结核杆菌目标,并且对不同染色背景的图像均能取得较好的分割结果。     

The only choice is both choices: balancing assurance and coercion in nonproliferation-focused alliance-management strategies

ABSTRACT

Conventional theories of alliance management often overemphasize the utility of either assurance or coercion in preventing allied nuclear proliferation. Historical analysis reveals that prioritizing either of these two tactics to the exclusion of the other is inadvisable. A strategy that focuses solely on security guarantees or coercive threats is likely to encourage an allied state to pursue a hedging strategy, in which the client state continues to clandestinely develop its own nuclear capabilities while remaining underneath its patron’s defensive “umbrella.” This article introduces a new framework for understanding the effectiveness of nonproliferation-focused alliance-management strategies. By exploring the cases of West Germany and South Korea, the article concludes that the best way to prevent allies from pursuing nuclear weapons is to combine assurance with coercion. This establishes an incentive–punishment relationship that limits an ally’s motivation to develop nuclear weapons. These conclusions have particular salience today, as conversations over nuclear-weapons development have become increasingly normalized in Germany and particularly in South Korea. The United States’s capacity to influence its allies’ nuclear behavior is currently being eroded through the degradation of both patron credibility and client dependence, weakening the long-term viability of the global nonproliferation regime.     

图像跟踪系统中机动目标预测的实现

针对装甲车上的图像跟踪系统,提出了一种机动目标预测方法.将目标的运动分解为两部分,即全局运动和局部运动,并根据各自的动态特性分别进行预测.以局部运动预测为重点,通过对机动目标跟踪技术的研究,建立起性能优良的跟踪滤波器,并将其扩展到预测滤波器中对目标的未来运动状态进行预测,从而提出了"交互式多模型预测算法".仿真结果表明,该算法具有预测精度高、自适应能力强的特点,同时给出了计算方法.     

VORONOI图的无人机航路快速初始规划

在分析VORONOI图的性质与威胁代价函数的基础上,针对航路的初始规划提出了一种先局部优化后进行全局优化的算法,从而避免在航路全局优化时陷入局部极小点的危险.通过对一个简单算例的分析,阐述了这种规划方法的合理性和快速性,给出了其对应的伪代码.它可对其他各种航路规划算法的边界条件进行初始预处理,快速确定初始可选航路集的解,缩短航路规划的时间;针对某阵地航路规划的仿真结果表明了该算法的有效性,初始的航路集有效地避开了威胁配置较密集的地方,同时尽量以较短的航路接近目标.     

Jumma insurgency in Chittagong Hills Tracts: how serious is the threat to Bangladesh's national integration and what can be done?

Bangladesh, otherwise a homogeneous society, confronts a serious tribal insurgency in its southeastern Chittagong Hill Tracts region. Before signing a Peace Accord in 1997, the tribal groups, known as Jummas, who constitute 1% of the nation's population but occupy about 10% of its territory, fought insurgency battles for over two decades demanding recognition of their ethnic identities and autonomy of their region. The highly controversial Accord, however, still remains largely unimplemented, and often it evokes fears of secession. This article argues that a probable secession of the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) may not be in the best interests of the Jummas or the people of Bangladesh; and a pragmatic resolution of the issue may lie with granting full functional autonomy to the Jummas in a constitutionally protected reservation area.     

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons: how safe is safe enough? Transparency versus opacity

Due to expanding and increasing religious extremism and terrorism coupled with political instability in Pakistan, most western observers believe that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not secure and could be taken over by terrorists. This would have adverse implications for the region and for global peace, especially for the security of USA and Europe. This article argues that this perception is based on a flawed understanding and knowledge of how Pakistan's command and control setup has evolved and operates. Pakistan's nuclear weapons are as safe as any other state's nuclear weapons. Pakistan has also been active in supporting and participating in global efforts to improve nuclear safety and security. Over the years, Pakistan has been quite open in sharing information regarding how it is improving its command and control system with western governments as well as scholars. This article argues that the steps Pakistan has taken to secure its nuclear weapons are adequate and that Pakistan would continue to further strengthen these measures; however, it is the expanding religious extremism, terrorism and anti-Americanism in the country which make the international perception of Pakistan extremely negative and then seep into the perception of Pakistan's nuclear weapons safety and security.