Attributing Cyber Attacks

Who did it? Attribution is fundamental. Human lives and the security of the state may depend on ascribing agency to an agent. In the context of computer network intrusions, attribution is commonly seen as one of the most intractable technical problems, as either solvable or not solvable, and as dependent mainly on the available forensic evidence. But is it? Is this a productive understanding of attribution? — This article argues that attribution is what states make of it. To show how, we introduce the Q Model: designed to explain, guide, and improve the making of attribution. Matching an offender to an offence is an exercise in minimising uncertainty on three levels: tactically, attribution is an art as well as a science; operationally, attribution is a nuanced process not a black-and-white problem; and strategically, attribution is a function of what is at stake politically. Successful attribution requires a range of skills on all levels, careful management, time, leadership, stress-testing, prudent communication, and recognising limitations and challenges.     

Cyber War is Inevitable (Unless We Build Security In)

The information systems controlling our critical infrastructure are vulnerable to cyber attack. Cyber war is therefore inevitable unless we improve our cyber defenses. The only way to do this is by building security into systems at the design stage.     

More Attacks,Less Violence

A response to John Stone, Dale Peterson, and Gary McGraw on cyber war.     

现代海战中国外“矛”与“盾”武器的博弈

反舰导弹（矛）与舰载反导武器（盾）之间的斗争是现代海战重要格局之一。美俄二大军事大国在矛与盾的发展上,均以对方为假想敌,研究使自己的矛如何突防对方的盾,以及自己的盾如何拦击对方的矛。由于历史条件,国家政治需要和本国的技术优势不同,二国发展矛与盾的指导思想和设计准则,以及在攻防策略上都有很大不同。文章从深层次分析这些不同特点,并探讨它们的发展走向。     

微小RNA及其军事应用

微小RNA（miRNA）是一类小分子单链RNA,不编码蛋白质,但是通过抑制基因表达参与调控许多重要的生物学过程。最新研究发现。miRNA广泛存在于体液中,并且含量稳定。易于检测。其表达的变化可以作为一些非正常生理状态或者肿瘤等病理状态的分子标记。复杂战场环境及太空等特殊环境下人血清miRNA的表达谱可能是相关作业人员健康状态的指标．体液中miRNA的表达谱也可作为评价新型武器毁损效应的检测标志物。因此建立特定因素作用下人体液中miRNA的表达谱并建立快速小型化的检测装备。不仅可以服务于军事活动参与人员状态的监测。还能在武器装备研发中发挥重要的评估作用。     

装备技术体系的战略地位、发展特征及启示思考

装备技术体系是体系结构理论方法在装备技术领域的研究与推广,是指导一定时期装备技术实践的技术规范,对于牵引装备技术发展、支撑武器装备体系建设具有重要作用.文章系统梳理了装备技术体系的战略地位,深入分析了新世纪新阶段装备技术体系呈现出的发展特征,在此基础上研究提出了加强装备技术体系发展的思考建议.     

空降兵装备发展仿真实验研究

开展空降兵装备发展仿真实验研究,是促进空降兵装备快速发展的有效途径。提出了空降兵装备发展实验研究体系结构,在此基础上,重点对仿真实验研究的技术框架和模型体系的柔性设计进行了分析与研究,并对发展需求论证环境和作战运用研究环境的部署与运行方式进行了阐述,旨在为空降兵装备发展仿真实验研究的顶层设计及具体实现提供参考。     

对陆军武器装备建设发展的思考

为全面落实我军军事战略方针和军队建设发展规划纲要,进一步确立我军的战略目标和战略任务,以及军队建设的总方向与目标,提出了陆军武器装备建设存在的主要问题和陆军武器装备建设依据、建设标准和建设目标,强调按一体化联合作战样式建设陆军武器装备,并提出了陆军武器装备建设的相应措施。     

Nuclear Incoherence: Deterrence Theory and Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Russia

Russian reliance on its non-strategic nuclear arsenal has been an ongoing concern for security experts. What is the Russian de facto employment doctrine for this arsenal? This article argues that Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) have no defined mission and no deterrence framework has been elaborated for them. This study disentangles Russian thoughts and deeds about regional nuclear deterrence and the role of NSNW in it. Situating the Russian case in the comparative context, the article argues that establishing a coherent theater nuclear posture and streamlining it with the national level deterrence strategy is a demanding and frequently unfulfilled task. It is likely to remain as such for both current and prospective nuclear states that consider an asymmetrical deterrence posture.     

Aiming to Break Will: America's World War II Bombing of German Morale and its Ramifications

This article examines the implications of the proliferation of cyberwarfare capabilities for the character and frequency of war. Consideration of strategic logic, perceptions, and bargaining dynamics finds that the size of the effect of the proliferation of cyberwarfare capabilities on the frequency of war will probably be relatively small. This effect will not be constant across all situations; in some cases the advent of cyberwarfare capabilities may decrease the likelihood of war. On the other hand, the use of computer network attack as a brute force weapon will probably become increasingly frequent.     

The Radford Bombshell: Anglo-Australian-US Relations,Nuclear Weapons and the Defence of South East Asia, 1954-57

This article looks at the emergence of nuclear planning assumptions within the South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) during the mid-1950s. It does so by examining US strategic concepts for the defence of the treaty area, and the ways these produced major problems for the Australian Government as it switched the emphasis in its defence policy toward a permanent commitment of forces to the South East Asian mainland. At the same time, Britain was struggling to reconcile its membership of SEATO with the need to effect economies in defence spending that would not alarm their Australian Commonwealth partners. As dissatisfaction within SEATO grew, both the US and Britain moved toward a more overt acceptance of nuclear planning assumptions that would reassure their allies without producing a greater call on their resources.     

Stranglehold: The Context,Conduct and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China

The mounting challenge posed by China's military modernization has highlighted the need for the United States to analyze its ability to execute a naval blockade. A blockade strategy is viable, but it would be limited to a narrow context: the United States would have to be engaged in a protracted conflict over vital interests, and it would need the support of key regional powers. The United States would also need to implement a mix between a close and distant blockade in order to avoid imperiling the conflict's strategic context. If enacted, a blockade could exact a ruinous cost on the Chinese economy and state.     

The Republic of Korea and Its Navy: Perceptions of Security and the Utility of Seapower

Abstract

Understanding the development of Republic of Korea (ROK) seapower is central in exploring the evolution and nature of its security consciousness. This article aims to examine how the wider East Asian maritime sphere has influenced ROK perceptions of its own security and how such perceptions have come into conflict with the needs of maintaining its deterrent capabilities within the peninsular context. In doing so it concludes that for the ROK seapower has been an expression of wider engagement and international developing security concerns but that it is curtailed and influenced by the realities of the threat from the North.     

高层体系结构(HLA)的开发与构建

从ＤＩＳ的局限性及不足出发,简要说明了构建和开发ＨＬＡ的可行性和必要性;重点论述了ＨＬＡ的结构、规则、接口规范、对象模型模板（ＯＭＴ）及ＳＯＭ 和ＦＯＭ 的构建步骤     

“E体化”军事物流的建设与发展

根据未来高技术战争和信息技术的发展趋势,提出了建设"E体化"军事物流的宏观战略构想,论述了"E体化"军事物流的理论内涵和现实意义,明确提出了"E体化"军事物流的战略目标以及目标实现的关键基础体系.     

加强顶层设计,促进我军装备管理信息化建设又好又快发展

在综合分析我军装备管理信息化建设现状的基础上,借鉴国内外信息化建设经验,阐述了加强装备管理信息化建设顶层设计的重要性和必要性,分析论述了顶层设计的总体框架及主要内容,提出了强化顶层设计应把握的基本原则.     

Visions of the Enemy from the Field and from Abroad: Revisiting CIA and Military Expectations of the Tet Offensive

As the January 1968 Tet holiday approached, CIA analysts and American commanders in South Vietnam developed more accurate conclusions about communist military strategy than did intelligence analysts at CIA headquarters. Besides valuing different types of intelligence, General William Westmoreland, Lieutenant General Frederick Weyand, and CIA analysts in Saigon also placed greater emphasis on new information about communist military strategy than did CIA analysts at Langley. These different reactions to information highlight reasons why military commanders and intelligence analysts stationed in the theater of operations might develop more accurate conclusions about enemy military strategy than intelligence analysts stationed at their national headquarters.     

The next step in Somalia: exploiting victory,post-Mogadishu

From 2006 to 2011, al-Qaeda's East African proxy, al-Shabaab, served as the de facto ruling party of Somalia despite the efforts of the internationally recognised Transitional Federal Government (TFG). During these five years, a violent struggle between al-Shabaab and the peacekeeping force of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) resulted in thousands of dead civilians, hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons and a strategic environment inhospitable to reconciliation, recovery or development. By 2012, AMISOM was able to break the deadlock and force al-Shabaab from Mogadishu and Kismayo. In order to continue the momentum, the African Union and other partner nations must support the TFG in neutralising al-Shabaab throughout Somalia and providing good governance to its constituents. Al-Shabaab's revenue streams must be shut down and its offensive capability must be degraded while the strategic environment is shaped to ensure that conditions conducive to a revival do not exist. Failure to do so will likely see Somalia continuing to produce Islamist extremists and pirates to menace international maritime traffic in the western Indian Ocean, destabilise East Africa and adversely impact millions.     

兵团城镇化建设与经济发展的思路

文章系统分析了城镇化建设的意义,兵团在城镇化建设过程中得到制约因素及其存在的问题。提出了兵团城镇化发展的思路和城镇化对兵团经济发展的作用。