颠覆性技术的发展与抢占新“三大革命”战略制高点

当前,世界新一轮科技革命、产业革命和军事革命交织前行,为发展颠覆性技术提供了难得的机遇。适应世界新"三大革命"发展浪潮,结合我国加快推进经济发展方式和战斗力生成模式双重转变的要求,应关注发展事关国家长久战略安全的颠覆性技术,发展引发武器装备重大创新发展的颠覆性技术,发展孵化培育战略性新兴产业的颠覆性技术,为实现我国经济社会可持续发展和实现国家持久安全提供新的引擎。     

论颠覆性技术与军事理论创新的辩证法

技术决定战术，军事技术历来是战争领域最活跃、最具有生命力的因素。当前，以军事智能为特征的颠覆性技术已成为推动新一轮军事革命的强力引擎，它改变了原有战争样式和形态，使战争制胜机理发生复杂而深刻的变化。军事理论作为战争实践的先导，必须首先把握、科学预测和有效评判新技术对战争带来的影响，才能发挥出理论的牵引作用。古往今来的历次战争实践表明，军事理论与技术之间往往不是并行发展的，而是相互错位、交替向前的。谁能在错位的当口抢占先机，缩短错位周期，谁就能提前形成代际优势或代差，赢得战争主动。因此，必须充分认清军事理论创新与颠覆性技术之间的关系，找准军事理论与颠覆性技术错位的原因，运用科学方法，加强理技结合，把颠覆性技术内化于军事理论，达成超越对手的“理论突袭”。     

关于颠覆性技术发展的理性认知

随着美国揭开第三次"抵消战略"重点发展对象的面纱,研发"颠覆性技术"已成为主要军事大国获得技术优势的手段。当前世界新一轮科技革命、产业革命、军事革命交织并行,给颠覆性技术提供了难得的良好机遇。但当我们看见颠覆性技术引领时代新型武器装备潮流发展的同时,也应理性看待其背后潜藏的风险。通过概述总结颠覆性技术研究现状,分析其推动的科技内生性变革,从本质上对其进行理性认知。研究表明,发展颠覆性技术必须积极作为,谨慎对待。     

颠覆性技术发展面临的挑战与对策

颠覆性技术是大国军事博弈的战略需要和提升国家科技创新能力的重要途径,可引发作战样式和战争形态的根本性变革。目前,世界主要国家纷纷确立其军用颠覆性技术重点发展领域,甚至开展技术竞赛,意图抢抓科技创新机遇,掌握战争主动权。然而,颠覆性技术从研发到战斗力转化的每个环节都充满了未知和风险,需客观分析其未来发展可能面临的挑战,并思考相应对策。     

基于人工智能的智能化战争形态发展研究

经过60多年的发展,人工智能对人类生产生活各方面都产生了巨大影响。近年来,随着世界各国大力推进军事智能化建设,人工智能向军事领域渗透的步伐逐步加快,引发军事领域新一轮变革,推动战争形态向智能化战争的新方向演变。本文采用文献分析和实例研究的方法,深入剖析了人工智能技术对智能化战争形态发展的影响;将智能化战争划分为算法战争阶段和类脑化战争阶段两个阶段,并从基本概念、发展现状、作战样式等角度进行了细致分析。通过分析算法战争的局限性及类脑领域快速发展的趋势可以看出,世界各国、各科技企业均十分重视脑科学与类脑智能相关研究,智能化战争未来将从当前的算法战争阶段进入到类脑化战争阶段。     

颠覆性技术对武器装备发展的影响及思考

当今世界,科技创新蕴含着无限机遇和巨大挑战,颠覆性技术发展必将对武器装备建设产生深刻影响。文章从对颠覆性技术的基本概念探讨出发,分析了颠覆性技术对武器装备发展的影响,研究了主要大国发展颠覆性技术的主要做法,最后给出了推进我国颠覆性技术发展的几点思考。     

论科技革命影响军事领域的基本途径与机理

筹划和指导战争必须高度关注科学技术对战争的影响。科技革命影响军事领域的基本途径,主要包括:引发综合国力消长,改变国际战略格局与力量对比;孕育新的利益空间,开辟拓展军事斗争范畴与维度;催生新的作战手段,推进作战方式和战争形态的演变;塑造新型军事人才,提升人员从事与驾驭战争水平;推进军事组织形态创新,优化军队编制体制与作战编成;激发军事理论创新,催化引领战争和军事长远发展;变革装备研发模式,塑造新型国防与科技工业体系等。应充分挖掘和利用其基本规律,推进我国新军事革命走向深入。     

国外国防科技改革先进经验及启示建议

正当前,新一轮科技革命持续推进,智能制造、人工智能、量子信息、大数据等前沿科技飞速发展,全球科技创新热度持续走高。世界主要国家纷纷把国防科技作为制胜未来战争的关键领域,不断推出国防科技改革创新举措,持续增强国防科技创新活力和能力。借鉴国外国防科技改革先进经验,提出对我国国防科技改革的建议,对我国国防科技发展主动适应时代之变、改革之变,在新一轮国防科技竞争中占得先机具有重要意义。     

颠覆性技术成为大国军事博弈的制高点

在人类波澜壮阔的战争舞台上,颠覆性技术催生的新型武器装备描绘了一幅幅惊心动魄的画卷,写下了无数激动人心的篇章。基于颠覆性技术的新型武器装备推动着战争形态根本改变,催化着军事思想的激烈绽放,影响着作战体制的深刻变革     

【邀请论文】美军未来司令部探析——成立背景、主要职能与未来前景

新一轮科技革命的快速发展正推动战争形态从信息化向智能化演进。美军作为二战后始终位列世界第一的军事力量，正在积极设计未来战争以应对当前的“大国竞争”，2018年刚刚成立的陆军未来司令部正是在这一背景下产生的。未来司令部隶属于美国陆军，主要负责美陆军新型武器装备的研发、未来作战概念创新以及新兴军事科技的测试和应用。成立两年以来，未来司令部已经拥有了一套完善、严密的组织架构，创造了包括C5ISR作战概念在内的一系列理论成果，在空基导弹、远程精确火力系统等新型作战装备上也取得了众多进展。本文基于大量前沿文献研究，廓清了未来司令部的组织架构，总结了其主要职能，并对这一新设司令部的发展前景进行了展望和预测，期望能够为推进军队现代化和未来化建设提供有益启示。     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.