Financial versus human resources in the Greek‐Turkish arms race: A forecasting investigation using artificial neural networks

This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large, extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.     

Defence industry in Iran – between needs and real capabilities

ABSTRACT

The paper’s goal is to analyses the potential of the Iranian defence industry, including both research-and-development and production capabilities. It is argued that, despite official statements about the great power and sophistication of the Iranian defence industry, in reality its capabilities are very limited and cannot meet the operational needs of the Iranian armed forces. At the same time, it is argued that many official releases, which are abundantly available in the Iranian press and often unthinkingly repeated by the Western media, do not present the real and value of military products, but are rather a tool for deception and propaganda.     

To free or not to free (ride): a comparative analysis of the NATO burden-sharing in the Czech Republic and Lithuania

ABSTRACT

The recent rise in the defence budgets among the NATO members reawakens the free-riding dilemma. This article provides an analysis of the defence spending of two new member states, the Czech Republic and Lithuania. Based on the free-riding theory, we explain why some of the new NATO members decide to increase their defence budgets (Lithuania), and others do not (Czech Republic). In contrast to the majority of works which focus either on the US as the biggest spender or on the “old” members of the Alliance, we explain under what circumstances some of the small European states who became new NATO members started to increase their defence budgets even though they do not have to, and the literature suggests that free-riding is easier. In the process, we identify three crucial factors that in?uence the decision-making process in this regard: the level of threat perception, economic situation, and the US pressure.     

防空作战指挥信息化研究

防空信息化建设与作战,是整个建设信息化军队、打赢信息化战争、机械化与信息化复合跨越式发展进程中的重要组成部分,而防空作战指挥信息化又是防空信息化的重要内容。从防空作战指挥信息化的时代需求、主要特征、发展重点三个方面作以探讨,为防空信息化建设与发展提供思路和借鉴。     

Remaking the military industrial relationship: A French‐American comparison

Defense industrial complexes in leading Cold War nations have downsized and reallocated resources to other productive activities in the 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the experience of two key countries ‐ the US and France. Comparing the two countries, we find similar outcomes in budgetary retrenchment and large firm restructuring but marked differences in the pace of downsizing and diversification among small and medium‐sized firms. We hypothesize that three sets of contextual differences may explain these differences: 1) institutional differences in the way that the State bureaucracies ‐ the Pentagon and the French Délégation générale pour l'armement (DGA) ‐ oversee defense industrial matters, 2) differences in military industry ownership and firm size patterns, and 3) differences in the regional distribution of defense industrial capacity and associated regional policies. In closing, we note that the two countries’ defense industrial complexes are becoming more alike and speculate on the significance of invidious competition and interactions between them. We address briefly the future of French/American arms industrial competition and cooperation, given the trend towards transnational security arrangements and defense industry globalization     

飞机武器系统作战效能分析研究的进展

阐述了飞机武器系统的组成、作战任务、作战效能分析等发展概况。在此基础上就飞机武器系统作战效能分析研究进行了综述 ,并指出了飞机武器系统作战效能分析的发展趋势     

VXI Plug & Play : 一种组建测试系统的理想规范

介绍了对推动ＶＸＩ技术发展具有重要意义的ＶＸＩＰｌｕｇ＆Ｐｌａｙ系统联盟成立的背景以及ＶＸＩＰｌｕｇ＆Ｐｌａｙ规范的主要内容,制定规范所遵循的原则和要求,对ＶＸＩＰｌｕｇ＆Ｐｌａｙ发展前景做了展望,说明了虚拟仪器软件结构的框架,并初步探讨了组建一个自动测试系统的方法和步骤以及如何利用ＶＸＩＰｌｕｇ＆Ｐｌａｙ设计仪器驱动程序。     

纳米科技与现代国防

阐述了纳米科学与技术当前的国内外发展趋势,并论述了其在现代国防军事技术方面的潜在应用.     

Mandated defence offsets: can they ever deliver?

Defence offsets are elements of defence procurement deals additional to the primary content. Offsets are usually expected to yield technological or industrial benefits to the purchasing country (e.g. countertrade, technology transfers, or additional jobs) and military buyers often require suppliers to make offsets available “cost-free.” The authors argued previously that such strategies achieve little of value to buyers that lack market power and are unnecessary otherwise, since purchasers with the market power to extract more value for money from foreign suppliers can do so anyway. This article also focuses on the supply side of offset deals. The USA is the world's largest defence offsets supplier but the US government opposes offsets demands as economically inefficient and trade distorting. Even if offsets are inefficient and trade distorting, they may still benefit a materiel-exporting country such as the USA as they may induce exports and create associated benefits for the offsets provider.     

影响指挥员军事决策的因素分析

现代高技术条件下的局部战争,军事活动的节奏明显加快,作战空间跨域扩展,战场态势复杂多变,尤其是当重大危机发生时,对军事决策的时效性提出了更高要求,指挥员必须能够及时、果断、有效、准确地定下作战决心。指挥员军事决策的有效性不仅受主观因素的影响,还受客观因素的影响。通过对影响因素的分析,提出提高指挥员军事决策能力的有效途径,为军队指挥人才培养提供合理建议。     

Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey

This paper provides a country survey of the Turkish defence economy. Turkey is a member of NATO alliance and is strategically located between Europe and Middle East. Moreover, Turkey has a high defence burden and high economic growth. The first part of the survey presents a brief economic background of Turkey, its armed forces, the defence industry, its modernisation and trends in Turkish defence expenditure. The rest of the paper focuses on the relationships between defence spending and economic growth. The effect of defence spending on economic growth is econometrically estimated using a supply side model. Both externality effects and the size effect of defence spending are estimated for Turkey. The study concludes that defence expenditure stimulates economic growth while externalities from the defence sector to the rest of economy are negative for Turkey.     

Causal analysis of Australian economic growth and military expenditure: A note

Chowdhury (1991) applied Granger causality methods to military expenditure and economic growth series in 55 developing countries. This note applies a similar approach to Australia and finds no causal relationship between military expenditure and growth in either direction.     

基于装备水平和知识的空中作战效果分析

分析了按作战效果进行空军武器装备需求分析的三种常用方法的特点,建立了一种全自动化解算模型,比较完整地讨论并描述了根据装备水平分析作战效果时需要考虑的关键因素,总结了需要使用的相关军事知识,并给出了表达方法,研究了推理机制。构建了各种战斗类型的效果评估模块,实现了软件系统并应用于一个重要课题研究,取得了比较理想的效果。     

混合攻击机机群在空战中的最优控制策略

研究了混合攻击机机群在对由截击 -歼击机机群组成的敌国土防空系统进行突防过程中的最优控制方法 ,以攻击机的最小突防损失为战效指标 ,给出了其最优控制策略。