潜射弹道导弹武器系统可信性评估

对潜射弹道导弹武器系统效能的构成要素之一可信性进行了分析和研究,给出了潜射弹道导弹武器系统可信性的评估方法和基本模型,并以示例说明。具体分析了战斗时间、可靠性、维修性、预备导弹数量等因素对潜射弹道导弹武器系统可信性的影响,指出了其实际应用意义。通过潜射弹道导弹武器系统的可信性评估,为潜射弹道导弹武器系统效能研究和作战使用等提供了依据。     

弹道导弹防御系统保障分系统作战效能评估

弹道导弹防御系统的保障分系统在很大程度上决定了主战系统和BM/C3I系统的作战效能是否能够完全发挥,故研究在复杂多变的作战环境下保障分系统的作战效能评估具有重大意义。提出了主体采用线性加权和法,综合信息熵法确定权重、公式法辅助专家打分法确定指标值来对保障系统进行作战效能评估的新思路。通过实例验证所建立模型的有效性和准确性。     

主战飞机维修保障效能评估方法

针对空军主战飞机维修保障效能难以评估的问题,首次提出了主战飞机维修保障效能评估方法。分析了飞机维修保障系统运行过程,按照"投入-产出"的原则,建立了主战飞机维修保障效能评估指标体系,运用信息熵理论和灰色系统理论,构建出了基于熵权和灰色聚类的评估指标赋权模型。结合实例验证了方法的正确性和合理性。     

潜射弹道导弹武器系统可用度的计算模型

武器系统的可用度是在武器系统启用前衡量其可用性的定量尺度.首先分析了潜射弹道导弹武器系统的组成,其次根据可用性理论对其可使用状态进行了确定,并给出了其可用度的计算模型,再次通过实例对模型进行了验证,最后对潜射弹道导弹武器系统的可用度在实践中的应用进行了探讨.     

弹道导弹防御系统效能分析与措施研究

简要介绍了弹道导弹防御系统的组成 ,提供了系统作战效能计算的主要思想、方法 ,给出了概率计算模型。根据分析结果 ,结合现代战争的作战方式和导弹防御系统的作战特点 ,提出了提高弹道导弹防御系统作战效能的技术和战术措施。     

基于改进ADC方法的陆基常规导弹主战系统作战效能评估模型

立足于实战对抗背景,运用改进的ADC效能评估模型,研究了陆基常规导弹主战系统的作战效能,其研究方法可为导弹武器作战系统的指标论证、工程研制和作战运用等提供相关理论依据.     

"后射"火控系统作战效能分析

采用攻防对抗作战仿真的计算机模拟方法,分析"后射"火控系统的作战效能,定量地反映出后射火控系统对提高战斗机作战效能的积极作用.首先建立效能结果向量的评估模型,然后基于该评估模型编制1对1近距作战效能分析软件,最后给出了用该作战效能分析软件评估后射导弹作战效能的评估结果.     

国外潜射导弹的现状和发展趋势(一)

潜艇是海军的主要突击兵力之一,随着现代科学技术的飞速发展,潜射导弹武器也得到飞速发展,使未来海战方式产生了深刻的变化。潜射导弹分为潜射弹道导弹、潜射巡航导弹、潜舰导弹和潜空导弹等类型。潜射弹道导弹现在世界上仅有美、俄、英、法与中国五个国家拥有弹道导弹核潜艇。在国家“三位一体”战略核武器结构中,弹道导弹核潜艇以其隐蔽性好、机动性和生存能力强而成为战略核威慑力量的中坚,是最有效的核报复力量。冷战结束后,     

苏联争夺战略上的优势

苏联近来在武器研制包括反导技术上采取主动,危及美国威慑力量的效能。华盛顿通讯——苏联正从美国手中争夺核武器优势,并危及美国弹道导弹威慑力量的效能。美国政府高级官员说,苏联采取了新的战略主动,使美国陆基洲际弹道导弹再也不能在遭到攻击时确保生存,并使美国洲际弹道导弹和潜射弹道导弹再也不能确保突破苏联主要目标区周围的反导防御。     

美国务院公布美国核武库数量

2011年12月1日,美国务院网站公布了美国核武器及运载工具的具体数据.根据公布的数据,截至2011年9月1日,美国部署的洲际弹道导弹、潜射弹道导弹所携带的核弹头,以及被计作部署的重型轰炸机所携带的核弹头总数为1790枚(按照新START条约,每架重型轰炸机无论其运载能力均按一枚核弹头计数),部署的洲际弹道导弹、潜射弹道导弹及重型轰炸机总数为822件,部署和非部署的洲际弹道导弹发射架、潜射弹道导弹发射架及重型轰炸机总数为1043件.     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.