基于马尔柯夫过程的武器系统目标分配问题决策分析

将防空作战中武器系统目标分配决策作为一个在动态随机系统中实现最优化的问题,并用马尔柯夫过程理论进行建模分析,提出新的算法并运用Matlab编程;通过对实行不同策略时武器系统长期平均效能的分析比较,指出在目标分配问题上仅靠原有的静态线性规划决策方法是不够的,还必须考虑动态随机对抗过程本身的特性.     

基于马尔柯夫过程的自行炮兵机动作战研究

针对信息化条件下机动作战对炮兵提出的新要求,根据炮兵战术理论和实际作战流程,应用马尔柯夫模型对自行炮兵机动作战转移决策进行了研究,建立了评定自行炮兵实施火力支援时的机动作战效能模型,反映了不同作战强度下自行炮兵能够有效进行火力支援的时间均值,最后通过仿真计算得出了可供参考的相关战术结论。     

大闭环控制射击系统分析

射击系统的工作过程是用一阶马尔柯夫过程描述的,并导出了均方误差闭.环控制最佳线性滤波器。同时用对比开环系统和最佳线性校正过程的性能方差和自相关性的方法,对其可能的改进进行了评价。     

柴油机磨损寿命的灰色马尔柯夫模型预测

基于灰色系统理论,将灰色ＧＭ（１,１）预测模型和马尔柯夫预测模型的优点结合起来,形成一个灰色马尔柯夫预测模型,拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围。特别地,这种模型的预测结果比其它随机波动性较大的数据到模型的预测结果精确得多。对柴油机磨损寿命进行预测,取得了令人满意的结果。     

多机协同多目标攻击空空作战系统研究

主要研究了实现多机协同多目标攻击空空作战的关键问题--多机协同多目标攻击空空作战的空战决策,设计了空战决策算法,并对整个决策系统进行了仿真.然后,设计了多机协同多目标攻击空空作战系统,将空战决策,导弹攻击区判断,导弹攻击融为一体,并进行了仿真.仿真结果验证了空战决策算法的正确性.     

强机动目标的非线性滤波器设计

本文应用Kalman 滤波技术,研究了一套适用于航空火力控制系统的机动目标状态估值算法。文中将目标加速度模型假设为既有依赖状态的系数,又能自动适应目标机动的二阶高斯——马尔柯夫过程。采用非线性滤波理论,对非线性耦合的目标相对运动模型没有强行解耦和线性化,而是直接进行滤波。最后就估值精度滤波收敛速度和目标机动变化的适应性等方面进行了大量的数字仿真。仿真结果表明本文所设计的非线性滤波器具有良好的性能。     

机场目标遭袭后飞机升降能力仿真评估方法

以机场目标的飞行场地为主要研究对象,通过作战仿真的手段,建立了机场目标起降能力评估模型.该模型以单位时间内起降飞机的数量作为衡量机场起降能力的指标,通过仿真作战过程中机场目标各子目标的毁伤状态和毁伤情况,动态地评估作战过程中任意时刻机场目标的起降能力.模型对作战指挥和火力分配有重要的辅助决策作用.     

基于蒙特卡罗方法的防空导弹作战模拟

以现代防空作战为背景,运用蒙特卡罗方法建立了防空导弹武器系统拦截空袭目标流的数学模型,编拟相应的计算机程序对其防空作战过程进行了仿真模拟.通过仿真结果对武器系统在不同目标流强度下的性能进行了分析,为指挥员做出科学、准确的决策提供了一定的参考.     

基于马氏过程的目标发现率分析

针对目标发现率的变化规律问题,提出了一种从作战过程出发、基于马氏过程状态转移的研究思路.根据“侦察→信息处理与决策→火力打击”的一般作战过程,建立了状态转移方程,推导了目标发现率的解析表达式并求解之.     

基于分布式排队网络的防空战术协同模型

分析了多个防空火力单元的作战过程,将战术BM/C3的控制协调决策抽象为决策策略。建立了多个火力单元协同作战的排队网络模型,并运用SPN理论对排队网络的运行机制进行了强有力的描述,有效地体现了防空作战过程中的威胁评估、目标分配等战术决策过程。这将为建立大型复杂排队网络,模拟仿真战役层面防空作战过程奠定基础。     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.