装备保障战备评估指标体系的建立

装备保障战备评估是一个新的概念,建立装甲装备战各评估指标体系是装备管理中的一项重要工作,通过介绍战备、评估、战备评估的概念,分析了建立装备保障战备综合指标体系的必要性,围绕装备、器材、人员、设备、维修、战备方案、战备训练、战备设施等几个方面的内容,论述了建立装备保障战备评估体系步骤和方法,实现战各工作的全程量化管理.     

海军装备技术体系中的系统成熟度评价方法研究

采用系统成熟度评价方法能够有效控制武器装备研制的技术风险。文章详细阐述了海军装备技术体系中的系统成熟度评价需求,总结了国内外系统成熟度评价的研究前沿和应用情况,分析了系统成熟度评价的算法模型,提出了与我军装备发展过程相适应的评价等级定义,为系统成熟度评价方法的推广应用提供了参考。     

武警部队后勤战备物资储备节点选址模型的构建

部队后勤战备物资储备节点是后勤战备物资储备的核心。着眼于武警部队后勤战备物资保障实际,结合物流节点选址的基本理论,构建了武警部队后勤战备物资储备节点的一元和多元选址模型,讨论了选址模型的应用思路。既是拓展武警部队后勤保障理论的有益探索,也能为武警部队后勤战备物资储备管理提供很好的决策依据。     

装甲机械化部队装备战备工作评估研究

根据装甲机械化部队装备战备工作指标要素建立了装甲机械化部队装备战备工作评估指标体系,采用简明层次分析法对装备战备工作的各项指标进行权重评估,将装备战备工作指标分为灰色指标与模糊指标,对于灰色指标采用三角白化权函数灰色评估,对于模糊指标采用模糊综合评估的方法,实例证明采用该方法对装备战备工作指标评估合理有效。     

面向任务的模块化战备方案修订及运用模式

针对当前信息技术发展的推进及部队使命任务的拓展和转型实际,对模块化战备方案研究现状进行了深入分析,面向作战任务,从任务、组织、专业和装备4个方面对模块化的战备方案进行了构建,对战备方案的运用流程进行了描述,而后以特种部队为案例,介绍了具体的模块组成,并引入反恐怖作战行动案例进行了合理性验证。通过模块化战备方案规划,保证不同情况任务模块的构造能力和组合能力,提高了战备方案的灵活性、适用性和可靠性。     

基于支持向量分类的装备完好性预测模型

对抗的战场环境和任务的变化，越来越需要装备战备完好性来保障作战行动。保持或提高装备战备完好性是装备保障的核心和中心工作。利用基于结构风险最小化的支持向量分类（Support Vector Classification，SVC）方法对装备的战备完好性进行了预测，提高了机器学习方法的预测能力。并以车辆装备发动机的技术状况数据为实例，建立了预测模型，通过参数选择，提高了模型预测的正确率、命中率等指标。结论表明：支持向量分类方法是预测装备战备完好性的有效方法。     

Supercritical carbon dioxide as a new working medium for pneumatic launch: A theoretical study

Compared with the conventionally gaseous or liquid working media, the specific internal energy of supercritical carbon dioxide (SCD) is higher at the same temperature and pressure, and the critical temperature of carbon dioxide is close to room temperature, making SCD a potential new working medium for pneumatic launch. To analyze the feasibility of this conception, an analytical model of a pneumatic catapult is established on basis of the conservations of mass and energy. The model consists of a high-pressure chamber and a low-pressure chamber connected by multiple valves, and there is a movable piston in the low-pressure chamber that can push an aircraft to accelerate. The effects of the launch readiness state of SCD in the high-pressure chamber, the initial volume of the low-pressure chamber and the valve control on the movement of the aircraft are analyzed. It is found that there is a restrictive relation between the temperature and pressure of the launch readiness state of SCD, i.e., there is a maximum allowable launch readiness pressure when the launch readiness temperature is fixed. If this restrictive relation is not satisfied, the working medium in the low-pressure chamber will drop to its triple point within a few milliseconds, leading to a launch failure. Owing to this restrictive relation, there is an optimal launch readiness state of SCD with the highest working capacity for any allowable launch readiness temperature. The pressure of the low-pressure chamber will decrease significantly as the initial volume increases, leading to a decreased acceleration of the aircraft. The ac-celeration can be controlled below a critical value by a designed sequential blasting technique of multiple valves. The calculated results show that a 500 kg aircraft can be accelerated from 0 to 58 m/s in 0.9 s with 36 kg of carbon dioxide. This research provides a new technique for the controllable cold launch of an aircraft.     

概率分布模型的飞机战备完好率评估与预测

飞机战备完好率是军用飞机战斗力的重要体现.在分析目前部队常用的飞机战备完好率算法缺陷的基础上,建立了基于概率分布的飞机战备完好率计算模型,该模型体现了飞机任务可靠性、维修性与战备完好性之间的关系.以某型飞机为例,通过分析飞机任务可靠度,利用飞机可靠性、维修性、保障性及作战训练任务的历史统计数据,依据概率分布模型对飞机的...     

Scheduling prowler training

The U.S. Navy Prowler aircraft is designed for electronic surveillance and countermeasures. In this paper, we describe the problem of scheduling Prowler crew training, and we present two integer programming models to solve it. The first model maximizes the number of aviators trained above 75% in each mission area, subject to the available number of flights, over a single month. The second model distinguishes peacetime from mobilization, and minimizes the number of flights done in mobilization subject to the available number of flights in peacetime. Our models distinguish different types of crew and allow more than one qualification to be earned on a given flight. We give numerical results using real data, comparing our results to the actual readiness of a squadron. We found that crew readiness of Prowler squadrons can be increased by 10%, simply by better scheduling. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 289–305, 2003.     

Minimizing reductions in readiness caused by time-phased decreases in aircraft overhaul and repair activities

The Navy is often required to conduct personnel planning studies, A recent study on the assessment of effects of personnel reductions at the various aircraft Overhaul and Repair Activities (O & Rs) of the Bureau of Naval Weapons was carried out by one of the writers of the present paper. The methodology was systematic but relied on informal, judgmental decision procedures rather than on formal models incorporating optimization. Later study of the problem resulted in the approach described herein. The paper addresses this question: How can a personnel reduction in the Navy's aircraft O & Rs be distributed among activities with minimum reduction in readiness? A two-stage procedure involving linear programming models is developed. Solutions involve either extensions of aircraft overhaul cycles or a combination of such extensions with reductions in aircraft inventories.     

基于战备完好率的军用飞机维修费用需求确定方法

军用飞机维修费用需求与战备完好率要求密切相关,为保持飞机一定的战备完好率水平,必须投入一定的维修费用。维修费用投入多,则维修设备齐全,维修人员维修能力高,维修备件充足,飞机故障修复时间短,战备完好率高;维修费用投入少,会造成维修设备短缺,设施破旧,维修人员培训不到位,维修备件供应不足等各种问题,直接影响战备完好率水平。     

From Domestic to Regional: The Civil War Conundrum and the Cases of Syria and Algeria

This paper seeks to answer a simple question: When do regional powers get involved in civil wars? Some civil wars see a significant involvement of regional actors, while others show a remarkable level of isolation. What explains this difference? This research answers this question by looking at two case studies: the Algerian civil war (1991–2002) and the Syrian civil war (2011–up to date). The paper identifies and develops five factors of regional involvement. These are: capabilities, regional dynamics, country’s relevance, regional security issues/containment and domestic–external links. civil wars are today one of the most prominent and deadly forms of conflict, and this paper contributes to understanding the important but understudied issue of regional involvement.     

基于改进主成分分析法的装备战备水平评估研究

为了科学、合理地评估装备战备水平,构建了装备战备水平评估指标体系,并提出了基于改进的主成分分析法的装备战备水平评估模型及算法。改进的算法不仅消除了指标量纲和数量级的影响,还能包含原始数据的全部信息,在原始变量转变为主成分过程中,反映了主成分权数的计算综合评价值,在指标权重选择上克服了主观因素的影响,客观反映了各指标因素间的现实关系。并通过引入实例,证明该方法实现了更加快捷、直观地对部队装备战备水平进行评估,有利于正确地引导部队装备战备建设的方向。     

以任务成功性为中心的维修决策方法与应用

为解决传统的基于状态检测与故障诊断、以装备战备完好性为中心的维修决策方法的不足,提出了以任务成功性为中心的维修策略.并以某型自行火炮为例,建立了反映其任务成功性的评估指标体系.指出了传统模糊评判方法存在的不足,提出了考虑系统参数时变的动态模糊综合评判方法,对于给定训练和作战任务的成功性进行了评估.以确定能否执行任务,任务成功性是多少,以便在执行任务前预先实现视情预知维修,确保任务的顺利完成.     

战时野战通信装备随机备件优化方法

随着模块化技术在军事领域的广泛应用,通信装备的战场抢修通常采取换件修理的方式。针对战时野战通信装备随机模块化备件的配置问题,建立了装备战备完好性和费用约束的优化模型,并给出了遗传算法的求解过程。通过实例分析表明该方法能够在战时为装备配置数量合理的备件,使装备备件在满足战备完好性的基础上携行量最少。     

A dynamic nonlinear constrained optimal replacement model

A stochastically constrained optimal replacement model for capital equipment is constructed. Each piece of capital equipment, or machine, is characterized by its age and “utility” or “readiness” class. The readiness of a machine at any age is a stochastic function of its initial utility class and its age. The total discounted replacement cost of several replacement streams, each commencing with an initial machine, is minimized with respect to the replacement age and initial utility class of each machine, subject to a readiness constraint stating the lower bound on the expected number of machines in each utility class at any time. A general solution procedure is outlined and a specific case is solved in detail.     

Research communication security in the 90s: A view from the UK

This paper develops a methodology for measuring the capital value of military assets in monetary terms. We distinguish between two military capital measures. One measure, called the value of military capital (services) summarizes the value of military defense assets during a particular year. A comparison of the capital‐services value of U.S. and Soviet tactical combat aircraft is provided for the period 1970–1984.

One feature of the capital‐services measure that makes it particularly interesting is that its size can be compared with such military expenditures as operating and support. While these latter expenditures reflect the readiness of a defense establishment, the relevant capital‐services measure reflects force structure and modernization.

A second measure, called the value of military capital (wealth), summarizes the military benefits obtained from defense assets over the remainder of their service lives. This measure depreciates the capital as it ages, and is useful for comparing military wealth with other types of wealth in the economy. We provide this measure for the U.S. military capital stock for 1925–1984.     

导弹装备战备完好性评估模型

针对当前对导弹战备完好性水平缺乏系统性评估,给导弹装备管理决策带来极大困难,难以适应当前转型建设导弹装备保障要求的问题,在对现役导弹装备任务剖面分析的基础上,对影响导弹战备完好性的重要参数使用可用度进行了研究,给出了基于可用性理论的导弹装备使用可用度评估方法和模型,根据部队导弹装备服役的相关信息,对该模型进行了评估验证,经验证,该方法可有效地分析导弹使用可用度,研究结论对于提升导弹装备战备完好性具有一定的借鉴意义。     

美国GMD系统成熟度评估研究

美国地基中段防御(GMD)系统虽然于2004年底完成了初始部署,但是目前仍然没有完全移交给军方,而由美国导弹防御局负责管理和维护.通过对GMD系统进行成熟度评估,得出其发展状态仍然处于系统发展和验证阶段.     

论保障性设计与装备战备完好性的提高

阐述了装备保障性和战备完好性之间的相互关系;通过指标分析,论述了装各保障性设计过程要与装备保障资源的最后生成建立联系,能使指标影响设计,设计过程进行阶段性验证,以达到在设计过程中提高装各战备完好性的目的.