编队舰空导弹对空拦截综合模型研究

以水面舰艇编队防空为背景,用数学分析法和计算机模拟法对编队防空中预警直升机的配置和探测模型、舰载雷达的探测模型、编队对空导弹的抗击方法、编队对目标的射击能力、转火能力、杀伤概率等问题进行了研究,建立了火力方程等有关数学模型,为定量分析和优化编队对目标的作战能力提供了依据。     

驱护舰编队对海攻击火力运用

针对驱护舰武器装备的发展,结合现代海上进攻战斗的新特点,对驱护舰编队对海攻击时的阶段划分、火力运用等问题进行了分析,提出了驱护舰编队对海攻击火力分配的原则和火力运用方式,并就确保编队的火力运用提出了引导保障、电磁保障应遵循的战术原则,对部队作战与训练具有一定的参考应用价值。     

弹炮结合目标防空部署方案优化评估

针对弹炮结合目标防空,选取主攻方向角、有效杀伤重叠区、有效火力范围、抗干扰能力、兵力机动能力、圆周遮蔽角、抗击概率、被掩护目标的安全性和火力密度9个评估准则,提出了弹炮结合目标防空部署方案的优化模型和评估方法.     

防空、反潜作战中舰载设备生存能力的定量评估算法

防空、反潜作战是当前海上编队面临的最重要的作战样式之一,研究舰载设备在海战中的生存能力,对于提高水面舰艇可持续作战能力具有重要作用。采用定量评估方法来研究舰载设备的生存能力问题,基于水面舰艇编队典型防空、反潜作战防线模型,给出了详细的数学计算模型。     

攻防对抗仿真中高炮火力单元射击指挥模型

在分析高炮火力单元射击指挥过程的基础上,着重对高炮火力单元射击指挥仿真中的目标搜索模型与杀伤效果评估模型进行了深入探讨和构建。在实现高炮杀伤效果评估方面,运用蒙特卡罗方法构建了符合实际、满足仿真粒度要求的高炮着发射与空炸射击毁伤概率计算模型。实际应用表明:模型满足仿真可信度和实时性要求,对开展地面防空作战仿真具有一定的借鉴意义。     

信息化条件下单炮多发同时弹着研究

信息化条件下,炮兵火力打击的强度对炮兵火力打击效果的影响呈指数函数递增,集中火力依然是炮兵战斗的首要原则,也是提高火力打击效果的首要手段,炮兵火力打击的速度与强度结合创造决定性效果.分析了信息化条件下单炮多发同时弹着的目的和用途,给出了实现多发同时弹着的约束条件,讨论了弹道计算模型和同时弹着方案的确定方法,并以某155mm自行火炮为例进行了多发同时弹着的计算与分析,论证了单炮实施多发同时弹着的可行性.     

空袭火力体系规模的数理判断

准确判断敌人空袭火力体系的规模是防空作战争取主动的基础.从解析敌方对我方保卫目标进行空袭兵力需求量的分析入手,通过从空袭某类目标所需出动的作战飞机数判断空袭火力体系的规模;从空袭某类目标所需发射的巡航导弹数判断空袭火力体系的规模,对从定性与定量角度研究空袭火力体系规模具有重要意义.     

合成坦克分队最佳火力分配模型

实际战斗中敌我双方均以多兵种进行交战,在兰切斯特方程基础上,利用不同作战单位的相对作战指数,以及各种作战单位之间的交战强度、掩护强度和循环交战强度,建立合成坦克分队最佳火力分配算法,并应用该算法定量计算二对二作战中坦克分队火力最佳分配的方案,为定量研究合成坦克分队火力运用打下了基础。     

THEORY AND APPLICATION TO THE US MILITARY

An ever‐growing share of defence R&D expenditures is being dedicated to the development and fielding of integrative technologies that enable separate individual systems to work in a coordinated and synergistic fashion as a single system. This study explores the optimal defence budget allocation to the development and acquisition of weapon systems and to the development of integrative technologies. We develop a suitable optimization framework, and then use it to derive the optimal budget allocation and analyse its properties. Finally, we use US defence budget data to calibrate the parameters of the model and provide a quantitative measure for the apparent US military supremacy.     

组合建模的海上机动目标群威胁预警方法

根据海上机动目标运动特性,提出用灰色模型与自回归时序组合建模方法构建机动目标运动预测模型.依据此模型对双方火力控制区的变化进行预测,最后给出了海上机动目标威胁预警仿真系统的实现思路.解决了陆基常规导弹对抗海上机动目标群的作战保障工程的部分问题,具有较强的军事应用价值.     

物元理论在优选对地打击目标中的应用

优选对地打击目标是现代信息化战争条件下联合作战对地火力协调中心在计划火力时的首要任务。旨在从目标的重要性、可靠性、射击紧迫性及对其射击时自身被发现的机会四个因素入手,举例证明如何构造物元模型,做到定性与定量相结合,对于编制炮兵C4I系统计划火力软件具有一定的参考价值。     

舰艇编队作战系统的武器目标分配问题

设我方m艘战舰,对方n个来袭目标.运用灰色局势决策求得目标对各个战舰产生的威胁值排序;再用模拟退火算法,参考目标威胁,单舰根据自身装载的火力发射进行初步武器分配;最后将分配结果传送至融合中心,应用大系统理论的分解协调法,协调武器分配,使得我方武器对本批目标的打击概率最大.仿真基于VC++编程实现,具体分析了算法及思想的可行性.     

火力分配综合效率指标计算方法研究

针对传统计算火力分配综合效率指标方法的局限性,在确定空袭兵器威胁度和防空火力单元射击有利度的基础上,结合实际作战的不同情况,介绍了一种计算火力分配综合效率指标的新方法。通过算例,证明了该方法的可行性。     

War and rumours of war,do improvements in space technologies bring space conflict closer?

Combat in near-Earth orbit is emerging as a more realistic possibility. The argument here is that changes in space technologies combined with a sea change in political rhetoric is bringing the possibility of military conflict in space technologies. This movement reflects a generational shift as the original decisions regarding military conflict in space are now being reassessed by a generation who did not experience World War II or the Cold War. For these, the sanctuary approach to space activities is not as persuasive and new enhanced space technologies bring the possibility of victory or at least survival possible during a conflict in space.     

Establishment,simulation and verification of firepower safety control model

On a narrow warship platform, the coordinated use of shipborne weapon systems may cause firepower conflicts, which seriously endangers the ship safety. Meanwhile, with directed-energy weapons mounted on ships, firepower conflicts between weapons become a “high probability event”. Aiming at the problem of firepower safety control, based on the research about the collision probability model of air crafts and space targets and according to the cone of fire model of conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons, this paper solved the firepower conflict probabilities between conventional weapons as well as between conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons respectively using the methods of probability theory, and established the firepower safety control model. Then the calculation of firepower conflict probability was carried out using the dimensionality reduction method based on the equivalent conversion of polar coordinates and the power series method based on Laplace transform. The simulation results revealed that the proposed model and calculation methods are effective and reliable, which can provide theoretical basis and technical support for resolution of firepower conflicts between weapons.     

The future of the defence firm: the case of the UK aerospace industry

The focus of this paper is the future of the defence firm within the context of the UK aerospace industry and its supply chain. The analysis considers aerospace markets and the aerospace industry in the UK before assessing the future of the defence/aerospace firm as a case study. The paper concludes that its future in terms of the strategic and important aerospace industry is uncertain. The corporate governance of the defence firm will have to change to reflect the hollowing‐out of the firm as the industry experiences significantly less vertical integration. The emphasis of the future defence/aerospace firm will be on ‘buy’ and not necessarily ‘make’. There will also be fewer independent defence aerospace firms as horizontal integration will occur across air, land and sea platforms as well as civil and defence aerospace firms. Indeed, conglomerate integration may even occur with cost pressures and market forces ensuring that merger activity goes beyond defence and aerospace into wider manufacturing industries and, in some cases, service industries in global markets.     

Defending Australia in the digital age: toward full spectrum defence

Australian defence strategy is disjointed and incomplete. Some would say that it is non-existent. Either way, this paper argues that Australia’s underwhelming approach to defence is the product of a crippling geographically focused strategic dichotomy, with the armed forces historically having been structured to venture afar as a small part of a large coalition force or, alternatively, to combat small regional threats across land, sea, and air. However, it is argued that Australia can no longer afford to drift between these two settings and must take measures to define a holistic “full spectrum defence” strategy and develop capability to fight effectively and independently across all domains of the twenty-first century-battlespace: land, sea, air, space, and the cyber realm.     

基于贝叶斯混合博弈的空袭火力资源分配决策模型

从博弈论的角度出发研究空袭火力资源的分配问题,针对空袭编队和防空火力单元攻防对抗过程中存在的不确定性、静态性以及动态性,建立基于贝叶斯混合博弈的空袭对抗火力分配模型。通过构造贝叶斯混合博弈树,采用逆向回溯法分别建立不同的博弈分析模型,利用混合粒子群算法求解那什均衡。仿真结果表明:以博弈论为背景研究空袭作战火力分配问题,符合真实的作战坏境,有效性好,有较高的理论应用价值。     

多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配优化研究

对多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配问题进行了研究。首先对多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配问题进行了描述,在此基础上建立了基于最大化资源剩余价值目标函数的多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配模型,分析了求解该模型的难点,提出了基于文化基因的多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配问题文化基因求解算法,最后应用实例验证了模型的有效性,并对算法进行了对比分析。试验结果证明,合理制定多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配方案,对于提升防御效能具有重要意义。     

一种确定火力单元配弹数界的方法

通过分析当空袭目标持续进攻时,防空导弹武器系统的一个火力单元配弹数对其射击效能的三方面的影响,得出火力单元的配弹数是影响其射击效能持续发挥的关键因素;以射击效能为基准,从概率的角度,以空袭目标突防时的配弹数为界限,给出了一种火力单元配弹数界的确定方法.