Country Survey I–Military Spending in India 1

After a brief survey of the Indian economy, we survey the supply and demand of military expenditures in India over the last four decades. The causes of military expenditures appear to include regional rivalries and protracted conflicts, but it has proven difficult to delineate these with empirical models. The effects of military spending in India on economic growth appear to be benign, despite much speculation to the contrary. However, the opportunity costs of defence spending are shown to be considerable. We conclude with speculation about the role of debt and debt servicing in retarding future economic growth in India. We also speculate about the potential for the creation of a war economy in India.     

The impact of military spending cutbacks on economic activity in an incentive‐wage two‐sector aggregative economy∗

We examine the theoretical outcomes of disarmament on economic activity in a two‐sector model of endogenous equilibrium unemployment rate. Three main shocks are analyzed: Exogenous cutbacks in military spending on the capital good and employment, and a reduction in public sector debt. The first shock is contractionary for equilibrium employment if the capital‐goods producing sector is relatively labour‐intensive but expansionary under the alternative factor intensity assumption. The second shock is contractionary for employment under either relative factor intensity assumption. If Ricardian equivalence fails, a reduction in public sector debt is likely to expand long‐term employment (JEL E24).     

Using the Feder-Ram and Military Keynesian Models to Examine the Link Between Defence Spending and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka

This study uses the Feder-Ram model in conjunction with the military Keynesian model to examine the nexus between defence spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka. We find that the Keynesian aggregate demand model is better suited to analyse the link than the Feder-Ram model for the case of Sri Lanka. Based upon our results we expect a higher economic growth rate in Sri Lanka if more public resources are diverted from the defence to civilian sectors of the economy, now that the war between the government and separatist guerrillas has come to an end. However, recent post war events cast doubt upon whether a diversion of sources from military to non-military spending will actually occur. We conclude that the sanguine predictions of our economic analysis are entirely dependent upon the political decisions of the Sri Lankan government for their realization.     

Dissolution of an Empire: Insights from the İstanbul Bourse and the Ottoman War Bond

During the transformation period of the Ottoman Empire leading to the Republic of Turkey, many conflicts took place between 1918 and 1923. These conflicts interrupted the servicing of the Ottoman war bond. The reimbursement likelihood of this bond was related to the outcomes of First World War and the hostilities. This paper analyses the impacts of First World War and hostilities on the risk assessments regarding the Ottoman war debt, using manually collected data on the price of the Ottoman war bond traded at the ?stanbul bourse between 1918 and 1925. The empirical results imply that the defeat of the Bulgarian army and the peace offer of Austria-Hungary were associated with the increasing premium demanded by investors of the bond. The victories of the Turkish National Movement and the peace offer of the Allies to end the hostilities by 1922 positively affected the likelihood of the servicing of the debt.     

Military Spending,Conflict and External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa

The damaging economic effects of the debt crises on Africa in the late 1980s encouraged considerable research on the determinants of external debt in developing economies. Although sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) debt was cut by two-thirds by 2008, through two debt relief programmes, debt in the region has since been rising at an increasingly rapid pace. This study provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of external debt in SSA over the period 1960–2016, using dynamic panel methods. It also considers two potentially important factors that have received relatively little attention. One is military spending, rarely considered, despite a number of well-publicised scandals over the procurement of unnecessary and expensive high-tech weapons systems. A second, is the possibility that the countries studied have been involved in conflict. The empirical results point to a positive impact of military spending on external debt, but with some evidence of heterogeneity across the countries. Furthermore, findings indicate that the positive effect of military expenditure on debt becomes more marked in countries that have been affected by conflict. These results imply that policies to improve security and reduce military spending could be beneficial in reducing external debt and, potentially, improving economic performance in the region.     

A lost work of El Lobo: Lieutenant-Colonel Charles T.R. Bohannan's unpublished study of guerrilla warfare and counterinsurgency in the Philippines, 1899–1955

Charles Ted Rutledge Bohannan (1914–1982) became an integral agent of US counterinsurgency operations during the early Cold War, contributing to both the success of the COIN effort to defeat the communist Huk insurgents in the Philippines and the stalled COIN efforts in Vietnam. In the early 1960s, he wrote a short and compact analysis of the US and Filipino experience of guerrilla warfare, from the Philippine–American war until the defeat of the Huk Rebellion. It was never published. Reprinted here, Bohannan's analysis of lessons learned makes a substantial contribution to the history of American ideas of unconventional warfare by an expert who contributed these lessons to the successful defeat of an insurgency in South East Asia.     

Does Military Spending Explode External Debt in Pakistan?

This paper investigates the effect of military spending on external debt in case of Pakistan for the period of 1973–2009. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration is used to examine cointegration among the variables. The ADF, P-P, and ADF-GLS unit root tests are applied to test the integrating order of the variables. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and error correction method regressions are used to investigate the marginal impact of military spending on external debt in the long and short run. Our findings indicate the existence of cointegration that confirms the presence of a long-run relationship among military spending, external debt, economic growth, and investment. Further, our results reveal that a rise in military spending increases the stock of external debt; an increase in investment also increases external debt; however, there is an inverse effect of economic growth on external debt. An implication of the findings reported herein is that there is a need to formulate a comprehensive economic policy for curtailing external debt in case of Pakistan.     

Fighting a Just War in the Midst of an Unreasonable International Strife: World War I and the Collapse of the Central European System of the Triple Imperial Dominion

ABSTRACT

This article constitutes an attempt to demonstrate the complexity of factors affecting the legitimate acquisition and reasonable exercise by a political community of the right to war as specified in the just war criteria of jus ad bellum. To achieve this purpose, a brief analysis is presented of the intentional participation in World War I of thousands of Polish volunteers forming military units deployed by the Central Powers on the Austrian-Russian front. Considered in light of the standard principles of just war, the military enterprise of the Polish Legions, as they were called, turns out to be a paradoxical instance of warfare which, while being part of a state-to-state aggression, must be deemed compliant with all the principles in question. As a means of explaining this paradox, a modification of the concept of justified intervention is proposed, embracing military efforts aimed at the ultimate defeat of all the (unjustly) warring parties operating within a given territory. In consonance with the classic just war approach, it is also argued that the justification for such an intervention is essentially dependent on its being initiated by, or attributable to, an unquestionable state agent acting in defence of the state’s basic prerogatives.     

A Re-assessment of the Japanese Armaments Production During World War II*

Abstract

This paper examines the nexus between the Japanese strategy and economic–industrial mobilization during the period 1937–1945. From 1937 to December 1941, the country was engaged in a land war of attrition in China. This war requested an immense amount of resources and was associated with armaments procurement strategy with emphasis in the army. However, the Japanese strategic vision assumed that the state was strong enough to engage in one land war against China and in a naval war in the Pacific simultaneously. The basis of Japanese strategy was a utopia. Making things worse, the naval war in the Pacific was conducted against the most industrialized powers in the world [the US and the British Empire (Britain, Australia, India, etc.)]. Finally, the internal Japanese industrial mobilization was associated with immense errors in armaments production (absence of economies of scale and scope, limited raw materials, etc.). Under these circumstances, the defeat was an expected outcome.     

THE DEFENCE SPENDING–EXTERNAL DEBT NEXUS IN ETHIOPIA

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of defence spending and income on the evolution of Ethiopia’s external debt over the period 1970–2005. Using the bounds test approach to cointegration and Granger causality tests, we find a long run and a causal relationship between external debt, defence spending and income. Defence spending had a positive and a significant impact on the stock of external debt while income had a negative and a statistically significant impact on external debt. Our findings suggest that an increase in defence spending contributes to the accumulation of Ethiopia’s external debt, while an increase in economic growth helps Ethiopia to reduce its external debt.     

基于 SD 的战时装备维修器材消耗预测模型

从影响战时装备维修器材消耗的主要因素入手,基于系统动力学方法构建了战时装备维修器材消耗的SD模型。通过对模型的运行与仿真得到了装备维修器材的消耗数据,验证了模型的适用性和方法的可行性,为科学预测战时装备维修器材消耗、做好维修器材保障工作提供了新的方法指导。     

基于SD的战时装备维修器材消耗预测模型

从影响战时装备维修器材消耗的主要因素入手,基于系统动力学方法构建了战时装备维修器材消耗的SD模型。通过对模型的运行与仿真得到了装备维修器材的消耗数据,验证了模型的适用性和方法的可行性,为科学预测战时装备维修器材消耗、做好维修器材保障工作提供了新的方法指导。     

MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SRI LANKA: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

In this paper, we employ a VAR analysis to examine the nexus between military spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka which, due to the civil war there, has witnessed a significant increase in military spending over the last three decades while also recording healthy economic growth. The study finds that, compared with non‐military spending, military spending exerts only a minimal positive impact on real GDP. Over a 10‐year period, a 1% increase in non‐military spending increases GDP by 1.6%. In contrast, military spending only increases GDP by 0.05%, suggesting that the economic benefits for Sri Lanka from a sustained peace may be considerable.     

Military spending and budget deficits: the impact of US military spending on public debt in Europe (1988–2013)

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between military spending and sovereign debt in a panel of 13 European countries. In particular, under the assumption of the interdependence of military spending between US and European countries, we analyse whether US military spending affected European sovereign debt in the period 1988–2013. The empirical estimation is based on different steps: (i) a unit root test; (ii) an Arellano–Bond panel estimation and a linear fixed effect model; and (iii) a FMOLS estimation to highlight the long run relationship between debt and relevant variables. General results highlight that debt burden of European countries is: (1) positively associated with US military burden and (2) negatively associated with average military burden of other European countries.     

Does military expenditure increase external debt? Evidence from Asia

This article empirically explores the effect of military spending on external debt, using a sample of ten Asian countries over the years from 1990 to 2011. The Hausman’s test suggests that the random-effects model is preferable; however, both random-effects and fixed-effects models are used in this research. The empirical results show that the effect of military spending on external debt is positive, while the effects of foreign exchange reserves and of economic growth on external debt are negative. For developing countries caught in security dilemma, military expenditure often requires an increase in external debt, which may affect economic development negatively.     

Community preferences,insurgency, and the success of reconstruction spending

Existing theory on counterinsurgency does not adequately explain persistent insurrection in face of the reconstruction work currently underway in Afghanistan and Iraq. We starkly depart from the literature by developing a simple model of reconstruction allowing misalignment of occupier spending with community preferences. Insurgency arises endogenously as a result of the mix of spending rather than its level. Occupier insistence on its preferred path of reconstruction may lead to fewer projects of any kind being completed. In equilibrium, the occupier may accept an endogenous insurgency to achieve a preferred project mix, or be constrained in its choice even when no insurgency occurs.     

A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL FOR ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND GOVERNMENT DEBT IN THE EU

This paper examines the impact of military spending on general government debt in the enlarged European Union (EU) countries. For this purpose, we use panel data analysis and provide estimates from a dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) panel model. The dynamics are found to be important and the results suggest that military expenditures do have a large positive impact on the share of general government debt in the EU.     

Foreign aid fungibility and military spending: The case of North Cyprus

The present article examines if the foreign aid to North Cyprus is fungible and if it is in a long-run equilibrium relationship with military spending using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing procedure from 1977 to 2007. The results suggest that neither tax revenues nor public expenditures are in a long-run equilibrium relationship with foreign aid. However, strong evidence emerges that defence expenditures are in a long-run equilibrium relationship with foreign aid, and that the latter seem to cause the former.     

空军武器装备体系作战能力聚合模型

在现代高技术条件下的局部战争中,武器装备体系效能发挥的大小决定着一场战争的胜负.因此通过对空军武器装备体系作战能力的分析,以求探索一种可行的体系整体作战能力评估的思路.在分析空军武器装备体系作战能力指标聚合关系以及处理方法的基础上,引入了"与"和"或"两种逻辑门实现对作战能力指标体系聚合模型的描述,并结合模糊层次分析法对空军武器装备体系作战能力进行聚合.结合实际算例,该方法取得了较好的效果.     

The Morale Maze: the German Army in Late 1918

The state of the German Army’s morale in 1918 is central to our understanding not only of the outcome of World War I, but also of the German Revolution and, indeed, through the pernicious ‘stab-in-the-back-myth’, on Weimar politics and the rise of the Nazis, too. This article presents new evidence from the German archives, blended with statistical analysis, to show that the morale of some units held up better than previously thought almost to the end, and thus to suggest three things. First, it proposes that some historians have placed too much reliance on English-language sources alone, such as British Army intelligence reports, which have various flaws as evidence. Second, it argues that, while historians have increasingly moved away from generalisations about German morale, this process has further to run. Third, it suggests that no single tipping point can be identified, and that morale alone does not provide a sufficient explanation for battlefield defeat. Indeed, much of the data can only be explained if the tactical realities of the war in late 1918 are clearly understood.