装备预测与健康管理体系结构及关键技术

结合预测与健康管理技术（PHM）在降低装备保障维修费用方面的明显优势,介绍了预测与健康管理技术的内涵及特点,分析了PHM系统的开放式流程,并将该开放式流程应用于装备的故障诊断和预测中,提出一种基于PHM的预测与健康管理体系框架。在此基础上,对诊断与预测技术以及传感器配置算法等关键技术进行了详细阐述,介绍了采用的诊断和预测模型及算法。     

面向售后保障的导弹装备健康管理系统研究

随着战争向信息化、体系化、智能化方向发展,部队用户对导弹装备保障的需求从事后维修、定期维护向视情维修和智能保障转变,对导弹装备故障预测与健康管理提出了更高要求。通过开展导弹装备健康管理系统的需求分析,提出了面向导弹装备保障的系统总体架构、面向军厂复杂应用场景的系统物理架构和基于微服务的系统软件技术架构,采用结构化设计方法开展了系统功能模块结构设计,对系统关键技术进行了阐述和分析,并完成了面向试点型号的系统阶段性建设和应用。应用结果表明了本研究的可行性,可为其他型号装备的健康管理提供参考。     

部队装备管理信息化建设的系统动力学模型

装备管理信息化建设是信息化条件下部队科学管装建设的核心内容。在对部队装备管理信息化建设进行系统分析的基础上,运用系统动力学的理论和方法,从系统的内部结构着手,建立部队装备管理信息化建设的系统动力学模型。通过实例仿真分析,证明了研究方法的有效性和优越性,可以对建设过程中的基本规律进行探索,从而为部队装备管理信息化建设的科学、健康发展提供定量决策支持。     

数据挖掘在装备储存和使用过程中的应用研究

为了实现装备储存和使用过程中数据的共享与运用,揭示数据中隐含的价值、规律,辅助装备作战运用和管理保障决策,讨论了装备储存和使用过程中数据管理与运用存在的问题,设计了基于数据挖掘的装备储存和使用总体架构,分析了数据挖掘在装备储存和使用中应用所涉及的主要关键技术.     

装备预研管理数字化转型研究——数字孪生装备预研

数字经济时代,装备预研管理应积极面对数字化转型趋势,构建与数字经济发展相适应的管理体系。结合数字经济的变革属性,借鉴民口科技计划管理数字化实践经验做法,总结和分析当前装备预研管理数字化面临的主要问题及紧迫需求,提出未来装备预研管理发展的一种新范式——数字孪生装备预研,即利用数字孪生助力装备预研管理的数字化转型,并从组成、理想特征和能力、关键技术以及发展路径四个方面对数字孪生装备预研的概念内涵进行了深化阐述,以期对当前装备预研管理的创新起到参考和促进作用。     

面向武器装备全寿命周期管理的虚拟原型技术

武器装备全寿命周期管理是降低武器装备研制开发费用、缩短研制周期,提高新武器装备战斗力的主要技术途径。虚拟原型技术已经成为支撑武器装备全寿命周期管理的关键技术,贯穿到武器装备概念设计、研制开发、生产管理、测试评估、维修训练等全寿命过程。本文综合论述了虚拟原型技术的概念,应用与发展前景,并结合总装备部职能转变,提出了应用先进虚拟原型技术,制定科学高效的武器装备采办政策与工作流程的建议。     

面向信息化油料装备研发的网络化协同设计及其关键技术研究

分析了信息化油料装备研发的主要内容及其涉及的相关领域,阐明了产品网络化协同开发系统的基本内涵。提出了基于信息化技术、管理技术、设计技术、协同工作技术和支撑技术的油料装备网络化协同研发系统的技术体系。最后,对该技术体系中涉及的装备设计数据信息交换与数据管理技术,装备设计任务的分解与分配技术以及冲突与协商机制等关键技术进行了较为全面的论述。     

PLM系统在油料装备信息化建设中的应用研究

油料装备的信息化建设涉及战争需求、设计、制造、配送、服役、维护、退役等诸多方面,提出运用油料装备PIM(ProductLifecycleManagement)系统实现其全生命周期管理。着重探讨了油料装备PLM系统的体系结构和关键技术。     

细粒度预警装备领域知识图谱本体构建

针对预警装备领域知识图谱构建中数据组织非结构化、实体关系刻画不够细致、知识表示缺乏规范化表达等问题,基于Protégé本体构建工具,首先,将预警装备体系自上而下分为装备原理知识类、管理保障资源类和装备操作运用类等,并进行细化梳理,定义概念类并划分层次关系,提取出具体装备信息中的实体、属性、关系等知识单元;然后,对预警装备领域知识进行建模,探索出科学完整的细粒度预警装备知识表示框架,并以“远程预警相控阵雷达”为例,进行本体实例填充和可视化;最后,基于本体描述语言对预警装备本体进行了形式化表示。该本体为构建基于多源高质量数据的领域知识图谱奠定了语义基础,对实现大数据背景下装备能力画像、发展态势分析、装备故障诊断与健康状态管理等装备智能化管理保障和作战运用具有一定的实践指导价值。     

装备保障知识管理系统中的知识处理方法研究

装备保障知识管理系统是实施装备保障知识管理的重要技术手段,结合业务流程研究其关键技术有着非常重要的意义。基于业务流程的知识组织思想,建立了装备保障业务模型框架,包括组织模型、过程模型、控制模型和信息模型。改进了基于角色的访问控制模型,使用户访问权限与本职工作关联;将拉取和推送两种模式相结合,实现了装备保障知识供应的快速性和智能性。     

READY,SET, TRACE

Tracing small arms and light weapons has been identified as an important component in reducing the illicit trafficking of weapons to regions of conflict as well as use in violent crime. At the national, regional and international levels policy makers and practitioners are working to make tracing more effective. This article outlines some of the key elements of an effective tracing regime and reviews where areas of agreement currently exist. It concludes with observations on some of the challenges facing countries as they try to implement these systems and respond to the problem of illicit arms trafficking.     

基于扩张观测器的三维有限时间收敛导引律

为了保证视线角速率在弹目碰撞前收敛到零附近的较小邻域内从而达到准平行接近的状态,本文基于自抗扰控制的不确定性估计补偿思想,应用反演控制方法设计了一种考虑导弹自动驾驶仪二阶动态特性和目标机动的三维有限时间收敛导引律。根据有限时间收敛控制理论,严格证明了系统的有限时间收敛特性;为抑制量测噪声,将传统跟踪微分器进行改进并应用于扩张状态观测器与反演控制的设计中。仿真结果表明:在自动驾驶仪响应延迟情况下,所设计的导引律能够导引导弹在有限时间内精确地拦截高速机动目标;改进的跟踪微分器精度高、响应快;基于改进跟踪微分器的扩张观测器估计效果理想。     

Consumer drone evolutions: trends,spaces, temporalities,threats

ABSTRACT

While the drone has become synonymous with the War on Terror, the asymmetric iconography of the battlefield is shifting. Commercially available off-the-shelf (COTS) drones are increasingly prevalent features of global battlefields, employed by non-state actors in both visualising such spaces, and the directing and inflicting of harm. As such usage increases, so too do concerns around their evolving adoption, adaptation, and potential portability into homeland spheres. While cognizant of the range of positive drone applications, it is asserted that drones nonetheless remain simultaneously bound to an inverse potential for exploitation. In examining drone risk, this article approaches the consumer drone through a series of sites and spaces through which it is technically and socially constructed. Reflecting upon industry innovation, community-driven experimentation, and evolving airspace – it calls for greater attention to the drone’s malleability, arguing that understandings of COTS drones must remain attentive to both drone potential and potential drone threat.     

COOPERATION,SIGNALS, AND SANCTIONS

This paper uses game theory and modeling to address the role of incentive structures and information dynamics in nuclear inspections. The traditional argument is that compliant states should be willing to allow inspections to prove their innocence, while proliferating states are likely to impede inspections. This argument does not take into account the historical variation in inspection, signaling, and sanctioning behaviors. Using a game theoretic analysis and model, it is shown that the separation of proliferators from nonproliferators only occurs when the likelihood of proliferation is high and punishment costs are moderate. The model assumes that states can choose how much to cooperate with inspectors and must pay opportunity or secrecy costs when inspections are effective. The results are tested against a set of real-life cases, providing support for the claims of historical variation and the model's deductive propositions.     

Drones,spies, terrorists,and second-class citizenship in Pakistan

This essay reviews seven recent books and reports that focus upon the use of US armed drones in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). This essay synthesizes a historical account of the program, critically interrogates key arguments and evidence advanced by the authors, and draws attention the particular problems that confront those who live in the FATA and the second-class citizenship that the Pakistani state has bestowed upon them for reasons of domestic and foreign policy concerns. This review essay does not intend to be the final word on any of the ongoing policy debates. But it does hope to enable a wider audience to take part in these important deliberations.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Ethnicity,class, and civil war: the role of hierarchy,segmentation, and cross-cutting cleavages

Why are some countries prone to ethno-nationalist conflict, whereas others are plagued by class conflict? This is a question that has seldom been raised and rarely been examined empirically. This paper presents a social-structural theory to account for the variable incidence of these two forms of political instability. These two types of conflict result from distinct principles of group solidarity – ethnicity and class – and since each individual is simultaneously a member of an ethnic group (or many such groups) and a particular class, these two principles vary in the degree to which they are mutually exclusive or cross-cutting. The degree of economic stratification between groups and economic segmentation within them shapes the relative salience of each principle of group solidarity in any society and is associated with a characteristic form of political mobilization. In places where between-group inequalities are high, and within-group inequalities low, ethnicity should be the dominant principle of group solidarity and serve as the primary basis of group conflict. By contrast, in countries where between-group inequalities are low, and within-group inequalities high, class is more likely to serve as the dominant principle of group solidarity, and conflicts along class lines are more likely. We test these conjectures with data in over 100 countries on cross-cutting cleavages, ethnic war, and class conflict. The results are supportive of the theory, and provide evidence that how groups are stratified and segmented in societies shapes the type of civil war.