Terrorism in Nigeria

Using the Boko Haram terrorist group in Nigeria as a point of departure, this paper examines the implications of the operations of terrorist groups on the security and stability of states in West Africa. It predominantly utilises secondary sources of data. Findings indicate that the membership and operations of this terrorist group are spreading across the sub-region. This spread is consequent upon Boko Haram's collaboration with other terrorist groups within West Africa and beyond. This constitutes threats to the security and stability of states in the sub-region. Thus, the paper recommends, among other things: a thorough understanding of the operational strategies of terrorist groups by states and those involved in security policymaking in the sub-region; and for agreements to be reached among Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member states and their governments for collaboration in various areas in order to curtail transnational crime and terrorism, and reduce socio-economic inequality that generates aggressive behaviours among the less privileged.     

United Nations Security Council reform and the dilemmas of African continental integration

This article analyses the disunity among African states in terms of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform, and attributes it to the contest between South Africa and Nigeria. These two countries have been locked in a hegemonic contest for continental domination. To this end, the article notes that African unity, not in terms of protocol but on the basis of principles and cooperation, is sacrosanct in order for the African Union to make a significant contribution to the reform of the UNSC. It is asserted that the contest between South Africa and Nigeria has been symbolised by the continental leadership aspirations of the heads of state of both countries, and recommends that it be tamed through forging diplomatic and strategic partnerships between the ruling parties of these two countries. The influence of external actors on the African countries, particularly that of France, is underscored as a contributing factor in stalling the debate on the UNSC reform. It recommends that South Africa use its strategic partnership within the association of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), particularly Russia and China as permanent members of the UNSC, to influence the realisation of the reform debate.     

Ethnicity,class, and civil war: the role of hierarchy,segmentation, and cross-cutting cleavages

Why are some countries prone to ethno-nationalist conflict, whereas others are plagued by class conflict? This is a question that has seldom been raised and rarely been examined empirically. This paper presents a social-structural theory to account for the variable incidence of these two forms of political instability. These two types of conflict result from distinct principles of group solidarity – ethnicity and class – and since each individual is simultaneously a member of an ethnic group (or many such groups) and a particular class, these two principles vary in the degree to which they are mutually exclusive or cross-cutting. The degree of economic stratification between groups and economic segmentation within them shapes the relative salience of each principle of group solidarity in any society and is associated with a characteristic form of political mobilization. In places where between-group inequalities are high, and within-group inequalities low, ethnicity should be the dominant principle of group solidarity and serve as the primary basis of group conflict. By contrast, in countries where between-group inequalities are low, and within-group inequalities high, class is more likely to serve as the dominant principle of group solidarity, and conflicts along class lines are more likely. We test these conjectures with data in over 100 countries on cross-cutting cleavages, ethnic war, and class conflict. The results are supportive of the theory, and provide evidence that how groups are stratified and segmented in societies shapes the type of civil war.     

大中亚区域禁毒警务合作初探——以“金新月”毒品问题国际化为视角

面对“金新月”毒品问题日益国际化,在中亚各国复杂多变的政治、经济、民族、宗教背景下,迫切需要各方共同努力,创设、发展出一种更加灵活、高效、有针对性的禁毒合作机制,以应对该地区越来越严峻的毒品扩散问题及其引发的相关社会秩序危害。阐述了“金新月”毒情发展及其对周边国家的影响,分析了大中亚区域禁毒警务合作的必要性,探讨了大中亚禁毒警务合作模式的选择,以创设出一种立体的、全方位的、有较强执行力的区域禁毒合作模式。     

URBAN FORTRESSES

One of the consequences of the state's inability to protect the life and property of all its citizens—especially in developing countries—is the formation of private alternatives to crime prevention and control. Gated communities, or enclosed neighbourhoods, are one such popular alternative. This article compares the phenomenon of gated communities in two developing countries: South Africa and Brazil. Both countries are plagued by violent crime and share key human development indicators. The article also explores key issues that have been raised around gated communities in both countries. Gated communities can contribute to spatial fragmentation in urban areas, and reflect increased polarisation, fragmentation and diminished solidarity within society. By excluding other urban residents and people from surrounding neighbourhoods, gated communities can contribute to social exclusion, inhibiting the construction of social networks that form the basis of social and economic activities.     

REGIONAL TRAFFICK

That West African criminal networks have contributed to the growth of organised crime in Southern Africa is clear. Though often remarked upon, these networks are seldom understood. This essay assesses the information available on how these groups, mainly Nigerian, have penetrated and operated in the region. Technology, mobile phone and the internet, for instance, as well as a reliance on close-knit ethnic groups enable networks to expand their illicit activities very rapidly and at the expense of national law enforcement agencies. Affected by economic decline in Nigeria and blaming that decline on the West, some Nigerian networks view their crimes as justifiable and legitimate business. South Africa, since the end of apartheid is the main focus but Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Angola and Namibia are important points in the chain. Drug trafficking, advance fee fraud, kidnapping, cheque and credit card fraud, stolen goods and trafficking in humans are all part of the repertoire.     

Keeping the Peace After Partition: Ethnic Minorities,Civil Wars,and the Third Generation Ethnic Security Dilemma

This paper examines partition as a solution to ethnic civil wars and modifies the ethnic security dilemma, suggesting that strong state institutions are more important than demographically separating ethnic groups to achieve an enduring peace. The paper starts with a puzzle: if ethnic separation is required for peace, how do some partitions that leave minorities behind maintain peace? The paper compares post-partition Georgia–Abkhazia, which experienced violence renewal within five years of the partition, with post-partition Moldova–Transnistria, which maintained peace. Both countries had ‘stay-behind’ ethnic minorities. The paper also disaggregates and compares the territories within post-partition Abkhazia, which contain ethnic Georgians: Lower Gali experienced violence while neighboring Upper Gali did not. The paper argues that state institutions create an incentive for ethnic minorities to collaborate with the state, regardless of minority preferences, and this helps maintain peace. However, preferences become important where institutions are weak and members of the ethnic minority have the opportunity to defect; this increases the likelihood of violence. The results build on the ethnic security dilemma by specifying micro-mechanisms and challenging the theory's reliance on intransigent ethnic identities in explaining the causes of post-partition violence.     

Militarisation of cooperation against mass migration – the Central European Defence Cooperation (CEDC)

As a result of the migration crisis of 2015–2016, the management of mass migration and border control became militarised in Central Europe, and this process has also reshaped the dynamics of multinational defence cooperation in the region. Accordingly, while the so-called Central European Defence Cooperation (CEDC) was created by Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2010 to support NATO and EU capability development projects via defence cooperation, after the migration crisis it became the major Central European forum for military cooperation against irregular mass migration. Although many defence officials in the region are not necessarily enthusiastic about this development, the Central European political environment and also practical defence considerations pushed the defence ministries of CEDC countries towards deeper cooperation on border control, as well as better coordination with ministries of interior affairs on the national and the regional levels.     

HUMAN STABILITY AND CONFLICT IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: PART ONE

Human stability is rare in the Horn of Africa. The history of the countries of the Horn since the end of colonialism in the region has largely been one of violent repression and insurgency. Succession by peaceful election has been the exception. This paper looks at the internal conflicts in the Horn of Africa in terms of the balance of power between civil society and the state in the countries comprising the Horn. A relevant feature is the formation and disintegration of centralised states. Centralising states, affected by the lack of human stability which can lead to their fragmentation and demise, also contribute to the escalation of the crisis. The Horn of Africa, consisting of Djibouti, Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, is a region of Considerable Strategic importance, even to nations far beyond its borders because of its strategic location, its diverse religious and ethnic groupings and its significant agricultural potential.     

改革开放以来我国民族团结法制化、制度化在新疆的发展分析

民族团结法制化、制度化是指我国在促进各民族平等团结的社会买践中，逐步便民族团结的思想、政策转化为国家的一项法律或制度，使民族团结成为我国法律体系中的一项重要内容。改革开放以来我国已建立起了一个促进各民族和睦相处、平等团结的完备的法律法规体系，它包括以宪法为主干，以民族区域自治法为基础，以各项具体的法律、法规为补充的法律框架。这些法律、法规伴随着我国社会主义建设事业的不断发展而逐步完善，体现了我国政府对民族团结法制化、制度化建设的重视。本文将对我国改革开放以来民族团结法制化、制度化建设及其对新疆的影响作些探讨。     

The impact of political instability on the economic growth of ECOWAS member countries

This study contributes to the literature on political instability and economic growth by specifically investigating the impact of political instability on the economic growth of member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). West Africa is regarded as the riskiest sub-region within the African continent. To achieve this objective, this study employed panel data techniques (fixed effects and generalised method of moments) on a sample of 15 ECOWAS member countries for the period 2005–2012. The findings from the analyses showed that terrorism, poor governance, social unrest, youth unemployment, death rate and natural resource rent have negative relationships with economic growth. The findings and policy implications deduced from this study could not have been any timelier considering the recent escalation of instability in West African countries and their fragile growth prospects.     

关于新疆民族关系的基本思考

新疆地处祖国的西北边陲,占有重要的地理位置,是我国一个重要的历史民族区,有着悠久的历史,民族关系十分复杂。新疆民族关系处理的好坏,直接影响着社会稳定和经济发展及祖国的边防安全。本文从民族关系的一般情况入手,分析了影响新疆民族关系的各种因素,进而分析了新疆民族关系的发展趋势。     

Making sense of the Southern African Development Community

SADC has a poor record in advancing peace and security in Southern Africa. Many identify poor policy frameworks and weak technical capacities as the major obstacles. Laurie Nathan goes beyond these easy explanations in his important new book on SADC. Absence of common democratic values and reluctance to surrender state sovereignty are key factors preventing SADC from making progress according to this book. This article argues that Nathan overstates the case and that there are real prospects and potentials for making further progress in regional cooperation. The lessons from the history of European integration also points to the important role of regional leadership. South Africa, in coalition with other likeminded countries, may still be in a position to move the SADC project forward.     

MODERN-DAY SLAVERY?

Hundreds of thousands of African men, women and children are being forced into situations of labour and sexual exploitation both on the continent and abroad every year. Internationally, trafficking in persons has been identified as a serious threat to human security and development by governments, pressure groups and the UN. But for many African governments, the problem has only recently been acknowledged. This article, the first in a two part series on the issue, outlines the types and extent of trafficking in Africa, with a focus on West and Central Africa. Contributing factors, in particular the high profit margins and low risk of arrest and conviction, are reviewed as well as the impact on human rights, public health, community and family development and the growth of organised crime. The second article in the series will consider successful strategies and international programmes, with a focus on the lessons learned for Africa from West Africa.     

An overview of conflict in Africa in 2014

Violent conflict escalated in Africa in 2014, with five sub-Saharan states – the Central African Republic (CAR), Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan – accounting for an estimated 75% of all conflict-related deaths on the continent. This paper provides an overview of the five major sub-Saharan African conflicts in 2014 and considers the underlying causes and dynamics in the Seleka/anti-Balaka conflict in the CAR, the Islamist threats of Boko Haram and al-Shabaab in Nigeria and Somalia, the civil war in South Sudan, and the long-running conflict between Sudan's government and southern and Darfuri rebels. The paper unpacks the general trends evident in these conflicts and the implications for the settlement thereof, including the targeting of civilians, ethnic and religious mobilisation and the state as epicentre of violence. The paper concludes with a brief look ahead to 2015.     

Defense spending and economic growth across the Taiwan straits: a threshold regression model

This paper employs both linear and non‐linear models to investigate the relationship between national defense spending and economic growth for Taiwan and China. Using data from 1953–2000 on defense spending, GDP, import, export and capital, we find that China's defense spending leads that of Taiwan. There exists the phenomenon of an arms race between both countries when official Chinese data are used. On the one hand, feedback relations prevail between economic growth and defense spending growth in Taiwan. On the other hand, China's national defense is found to lead economic growth.     

SECURITY BRIEF

September 11 2001 precipitated the introduction of anti-terrorism legislation in most states and enhanced cooperation between states around the world. Africa may not have witnessed many incidents of international terrorism on its soil, yet the continent has, in the post 9/11 era, often been referred to as the ‘breeding ground of terrorism’ or the conduit for international terrorists. The assumption that countries with weak governments and failing economies (as in most of the continent) seems to be one of the factors that earned Africa this negative image. While the validity of the assumption is debatable, it is clear that prosecuting cases of terrorism is fraught with legal intricacies. This article deals with the difficulties involved.     

新疆双语教育背景下的少数民族传统体育文化传承与发展研究

本文在文献研究的基础上,以新疆少数民族的双语教育为背景,论述了新疆少数民族传统体育文化在经济、体育全球化中所面临的传承与发展困境、双语教育的文化传承的功能哮怍用,以及双语教育和少数民族体育文化的传承关系。本研究认为,双语教育是促进新疆少数民族传统体育文化传承与发展的重要途径,掌握双语,不仅促进地域、民族、国与国之间的民族体育文化学习、交流与合作,而且也为新疆少数民族传统体育文化的创新与发展提供了必要条件。     

What determines military allocations in Africa: Theoretical and empirical investigations

This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the determinants of military spending in Africa. It specifies a formal model and uses time‐series and cross‐sectional estimations to ascertain the reasons behind variations in military allocations across and within 40 African countries during 1960–1991. The differences in military expenditures appear to reflect a complex of economic, political, and strategic factors at both national and international levels. Strategic considerations are, however, found to be the most important factors in most African countries.     

MICRO-DISARMAMENT IN WEST AFRICA

This article explores the proliferation of illicit small arms and light weapons in the West African sub-region and efforts by the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to deal with the problem through the ECOWAS Declaration of a Moratorium on the Importation, Exportation and Manufacture of Small Arms and Light Weapons in West Africa. The paper analyses the degree of compliance with the Moratorium by four ECOWAS member states, namely, Ghana, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Mali.