火箭助飞鱼雷对随机机动目标的射击效率仿真

为解决火箭助飞鱼雷的作战使用问题,需要确定它对随机机动目标的射击效率,通过对该雷空中及水下弹道的各阶段深入细致的分析研究,建立了火箭助飞鱼雷射击效率仿真模型.着重探讨了采用目标现在点射击方法,对随机机动目标的发现概率仿真计算模型,进行了实际仿真计算,并就一些主要参数对射击效率的影响做了较为深入的分析.仿真结果表明,所建立的射击效率模型符合火箭助飞鱼雷的实际,对进一步深入研究其作战使用诸多问题具有一定的参考价值.     

助飞鱼雷攻潜时两种引导定位方法误差分析

水面舰艇使用助飞鱼雷攻潜时,可以利用舰载声纳系统或舰载直升机吊放声纳系统分别对目标潜艇进行定位并引导舰艇攻击潜艇,本文建立了这两种目标定位方法的散布误差模型,并在仿真计算的基础上,比较分析了两种定位引导方法目标散布误差的优劣,为助飞鱼雷攻潜指挥决策提供了依据,对提高助飞鱼雷作战效能具有指导意义。     

飞航式助飞鱼雷指令修正时机仿真

为解决飞航式助飞鱼雷指令修正时机的选择问题,介绍了其对潜攻击过程及射击方法,分析了选择指令修正时机应考虑的主要因素,建立了飞航式助飞鱼雷作战仿真模型。通过仿真计算得到了指令修正时机的确定原则。提高了飞航式助飞鱼雷的攻潜能力,为制定与优化指令修正方案提供了理论依据。     

火箭助飞鱼雷攻潜试验方案研究

为贴近实战完成火箭助飞鱼雷攻潜试验,针对目标指示信息设备选择、目标靶的选择、射击方式解算等几个试验方案设计关键点对试验方案设计进行了分析,建立了影响攻潜效果主要因素的仿真计算模型,并给出了仿真计算结果。经海上试验检验,方案设计合理可行。     

火箭助飞鱼雷与空投鱼雷齐射攻潜射击方法

火箭助飞鱼雷与空投鱼雷齐射攻潜是水面舰艇中远距离攻潜的有效方法之一。由于火箭助飞鱼雷和空投鱼雷齐射的平台、弹道不同,为了有效的组织鱼雷的齐射,必须解决相关的问题。因此,从火箭助飞鱼雷与空投鱼雷的作战使用特点出发,首先探讨两雷齐射的定义及实施方法,其次通过计算机仿真研究了实施齐射时的直升机安全问题,并研究了两雷射击的间隔时间,拟合了计算公式。总之,此问题的研究对发挥水面舰艇中远距离反潜作战能力具有一定的意义。     

风对火箭助飞鱼雷入水点散布影响的仿真分析

火箭助飞鱼雷具有反应快、射程远、命中概率高等特点,对于提高水面舰艇部队反潜能力具有重要作用。作战海域气象环境因素对反潜作战的影响巨大,能否充分利用海洋环境条件,关系到搜潜器材能否及时、有效地发现潜艇目标,以及使用攻潜武器对目标实施准确打击。针对火箭助飞鱼雷攻潜实际过程,建立其入水点的散布误差模型和入水位置解算模型,并仿真分析作战海域的风环境因素对火箭助飞鱼雷入水点的影响。     

基于声诱饵对抗的火箭助飞鱼雷命中概率仿真

针对舰艇使用火箭助飞鱼雷与潜艇对抗的典型样式,分别建立了潜艇自航式声诱饵对抗声自导鱼雷模型、火箭助飞鱼雷对目标提前位置射击参数解算模型、鱼雷运动模型、潜艇机动模型和命中概率计算模型,采用模拟法计算了火箭助飞鱼雷单雷射击和双雷齐射的命中概率,总结了射击距离和潜艇航速对火箭助飞鱼雷命中概率的影响,研究结论可为火箭助飞鱼雷作战使用提供理论指导。     

火箭自导深弹空中段关键指标研究

文中依据火箭自导深弹的组成及攻潜过程,建立了相关仿真模型,在典型条件下,分别采用对目标当前点和对目标提前点两种射击策略,利用蒙特卡罗法仿真分析了弹箭分离高度、入水速度、溅落点散布误差和助飞段平均飞行速度等空中段主要指标对发现概率的影响。仿真结果表明：溅落点散布误差和助飞段平均飞行速度对发现概率影响显著,为火箭自导深弹空中段关键指标;溅落点散布误差控制在200m以内,助飞段平均飞行速度高于250m/s时,具有较高的发现概率。     

基于线导鱼雷弹道信息的目标机动判断方法

目标机动是目标应对鱼雷攻击的方法之一,研究目标机动自动判断方法有利于鱼雷命中目标.阐述了线导+尾流自导鱼雷射击控制模型,提出了采用的鱼雷弹道信息和目标机动判断方法,在一定条件下通过仿真验证了所提出的弹道信息在目标机动判断中的有效性.     

水面舰艇对鱼雷防御决策仿真分析

如何对来袭鱼雷进行防御成为水面舰艇对潜防御作战的重中之重.根据世界主要海军国家普遍装备的火箭助飞声诱饵的使用原理、基本战技性能,结合"线导+声自导"鱼雷的作战过程,仔细分析了水面舰艇对抗鱼雷的作战态势,通过大量的仿真计算得出火箭助飞声诱饵的最佳使用方式以及舰艇的机动方法.     

20世纪90年代印度军事变革综述

高新技术在军事上的广泛应用,特别是西方军事强国大力推进新军事变革,对印度的军事发展产生了重要影响.印度一直认为军队是实现国家战略目标的主要手段之一,军队建设的指导方针必须为其国家战略、军事战略服务.印度的军事战略目标是:以实力为后盾,控制弱小邻国,遏制东北部邻国,排挤大国对南亚和印度洋事务的干涉,巩固其在西亚的既得利益,积极争当世界军事强国.为实现这一战略目标,印度在20世纪90年代制定了"适当控制数量,重点加强质量,进一步提高战斗力"(转引自尹承魁、刘映国:<新军事革命对印度军事发展的影响>,载<教学研究资料>1999年第12期)这一未来军队建设的指导方针,积极迎接新军事变革的挑战,大力加强军队现代化建设,全面提高打赢未来战争的能力.20世纪90年代印度军事变革的经验,值得汲取和借鉴.     

Stationary (s,s) policies for a finite horizon

In the finite-horizon stochastic (s, S) inventory model with periodic review the parameters of the optimal policy generally vary with the length of the horizon. A stationary policy, however, is easier to implement and may be easier to calculate. This paper studies optimal stationary policies for a finite horizon and relates them to optimal policies through their relation to optimal stationary policies for an infinite horizon.     

20世纪六七十年代中国战备的回顾与思考

20世纪六七十年代,新中国面对严峻的国家安全形势,曾进行了一场大规模的战备.这次战备以"早打、大打、打核战争"为指导思想,将战备工作在一个相当长的时期内摆在全党、全军乃至全国各项工作的中心地位,并制约国家各项工作的安排和开展,与一般意义上的战备相比显示出特殊的复杂性.因而,这一时期的战备备受争议,可谓众说纷纭、褒贬不一.     

Anarchy’s anatomy: Two-tiered security systems and Libya’s civil wars

ABSTRACT

No issue deserves more scrutiny than the mechanisms whereby popular unrest unleashes civil wars. We argue that one institution – two-tiered security systems – is particularly pernicious in terms of the accompanying civil war risk. These systems’ defining characteristic is the juxtaposition of small communally stacked units that protect regimes from internal adversaries with larger regular armed forces that deter external opponents. These systems aggravate civil war risks because stacked security units lack the size to repress widespread dissent, but inhibit rapid regime change through coup d’état. Regular militaries, meanwhile, fracture when ordered to employ force against populations from which they were recruited.     

Hizbullah’s Shaping Lebanon Statehood

Abstract

Since the end of the civil war in 1990, the Lebanese second Republic has experienced a dual security governance in the southern borderland region. Up to the Syrian military withdrawal in 2005, the territorial and functional ‘areas of limited statehood’ between the State and Hizbullah worked as a cooperation. After the Syrian withdrawal, various forms of cooperation appeared, raising the theoretical interest for the ‘mediated state’ framework. It is conceptualizing the cooperation between the state and the non-state actor as an interdependency – with case study ranging from the marking of the Blue Line to the struggle against the jihadists groups.     

The FARC’s militaristic blueprint

This article intends to explain the outstanding sequence of success and failure exhibited by the FARC, the main Colombian guerrilla since the 1980s. It claims that such sequence is unintelligible unless the adoption by the FARC of a militaristic organizational blueprint at its 1982 7^th Conference is taken into account. By building itself like an army, the FARC could boost its combat capacity, maintain its structural integrity, and develop powerful mechanisms that held the whole structure together. At the same time, the militarization of the FARC also entailed significant risks and costs like political isolation and high personnel turnover. After describing the militaristic blueprint, the article compares the FARC with other irregular forces that operated in the Colombian context – a comparison which is important to understand the specificity of the FARC trajectory, as well as the benefits and costs involved in it. The analysis highlights the critical role of organizational dimensions in the explanation of civil war outcomes, and suggests that at least for some problems organizational dynamics should be observed at a low level of granularity.     

Reforming China’s defense industry

ABSTRACT

Even with sizable economic inputs, access to foreign technologies, and considerable political will, China, up until the late 1990s, experienced only limited success when it came to the local design, development, and manufacture of advanced conventional weapons. Not surprisingly, therefore, reforming the local defense industry in order to upgrade its technology base and manufacturing capabilities and to make armaments production more efficient and cost-effective has long preoccupied the Chinese leadership. The fact that most of these efforts had little positive impact on the country’s military technological and industrial capabilities only encouraged Beijing to experiment with additional reforms in the hopes of finally getting it right.