Optimization of strategic defenses to provide specified post-attack production capacities

This paper presents a model for choosing a minimum-cost mix of strategic defenses to assure that specified production capacities for several economic sectors survive after a nuclear attack. The defender selects a mix of strategic defenses for each of several geographic regions. The attacker chooses an allocation of attacking weapons to geographic regions, within specified weapon inventories. The attack is optimized against any economic sector. This formulation allows the defense planner the capability to assess the results of the optimal defense structure for a “worst case” attack. The model is a mathematical program with nonlinear programming problems in the constraints; an example of its application is given and is solved using recently developed optimization techniques.     

Decision rules for attacking targets of opportunity

Frequently in warfare, a force is required to attack a perishable enemy target system - a target system where the targets are detected seemingly at random, and if not immediately attacked, will shortly escape from detection. A conflicting situation arises when an attack element detects a target of relatively low value and has to decide whether to expend his resources on that particular target or to wait for a more lucrative one, hoping one will be found. This paper provides a decision rule giving the least valued target that should be attacked as well as the resources that should be expended as a function of the attack element's remaining mission time.     

A duel complicated by false targets and uncertainty as to opponent type

An attacker, being one of two types, initiates an attack at some time in the interval [-T, 0]. The a priori probabilities of each type are known. As time elapses the defender encounters false targets which occur according to a known Poisson process and which can be properly classified with known probability. The detection and classification probabilities for each type attacker are given. If the defender responds with a weapon at the time of attack, he survives with a probability which depends on the number of weapons in his possession and on attacker type. If he does not respond, his survival probability is smaller. These probabilities are known, as well as the current number of weapons in the defender's possession. They decrease as the number of weapons decreases. The payoff is the defender's survival probability. An iterative system of first-order differential equations is derived whose unique solution V₁(t),V₂(t),…,V_k(t) is shown to be the value of the game at time t, when the defender has 1, 2,…, k,… weapons, respectively. The optimal strategies are determined. Limiting results are obtained as t→-∞, while the ratio of the number of weapons to the expected number of false targets remaining is held constant.     

一种通用型舰载防空硬武器火力优化算法?

针对当前武器优化分配算法缺少通用性，难以兼顾效率和时间的问题，提出了一种通用型舰载防空硬武器火力优化算法。该算法首先提取各舰载武器能够攻击的目标集合，然后对各武器的目标集合逐一进行时间分配，并计算对目标的毁伤概率，最终完成所有武器的分配。计算表明，该算法具有很好的通用性和实时性，可适用于较大规模舰载防空硬武器的火力优化分配问题。     

基于排队论的防空兵力部署优化模型

兵力部署优化问题是防空指控系统的重要研究内容之一。针对多型防空武器多层多区段混合部署问题,对异型空袭武器和防空武器基于作战效能标准化处理,基于排队论给出空袭武器的突防概率计算模型,将防空武器系统综合防御效能作为优化目标,建立多型防空武器扇形部署优化模型。仿真实验验证了优化模型的有效性和合理性,可为科学制定兵力部署方案提供参考。     

同类防空武器多层防御部署分析

在现代防空中,经常是防空武器多层部署进行防空,故需要对防空武器多层防御部署进行分析.针对同类防空武器多层防御部署的问题,运用排队论,建立了防御体系射击效能的数学模型.按照模型,通过实验仿真,对计算得到的实验数据进行分析,推测出同类防空武器的部署规律,并对防御体系应部署的适宜层数进行了一定的讨论.通过理论推导,证明了部署规律的正确性.最后建立了需求分析模型,运用部署规律对模型进行求解,通过对实例进行计算,给出了求解的基本步骤.     

Military support and transnational terrorism

Analysing the relationship between the provision of military support and the probability of becoming the target of a terrorist attack, this paper contributes to the literature on the causes of transnational terrorism. We find that deployment of military troops of country X in country Y increases the probability of a terrorist attack on citizens of country X by a terrorist group located in country Y. Exporting weapons to country Y seems to increase the probability of being attacked by the terrorists of this country Y as well. Deploying materials, however, does not seem to significantly influence the probability of attack. Including lagged values for our military support variables ensures that the causality direction is from military support to terrorist attacks. Moreover, these results indicate that while the effect of military deployment on the probability of attack lasts for more than 1 year, the effect is rather short-lived.     

蚁群算法及其在火力分配问题中的应用

火力分配问题是指用一定数量的武器对一定数量的目标进行打击,如何根据武器性能和目标特性等一系列的因素,制定打击计划,使打击效果最好,满足打击需求,是我二炮部队火力运用专业的研究课题之一.火力分配问题是NP难题,经典的求解算法存在指数级的时间复杂度.采用蚁群优化算法,对该问题进行了研究.     

制导炸弹--一种重要的空袭兵器和应对措施

根据越南战争、海湾战争和科索沃战争的战例,阐述了制导炸弹的主要战术技术特点,认为制导炸弹是未来空袭作战重要兵器,是中低空中近程地(舰)空导弹的重要目标,拦截制导炸弹是地(舰)空导弹应该着力研究的问题.论证了中低空中近程地(舰)空导弹拦截制导炸弹的可行性,并提出了应开展的专项技术研究课题.     

对地攻击机攻击阶段的作战效能分析模型

讨论了机载空对地武器可攻击区、攻击机首攻概率及最大发现目标概率的确定方法,建立了在目标区存在敌防空系统时攻击机作战效能分析的顶层数学模型.     

防空导弹对目标拦截的模糊二元对比排序

确定对空袭兵器的拦截次序是防空导弹火力分配的重要内容.定性分析和定量计算相结合,利用模糊数学中的模糊二元对比排序法确定防空导弹对多个目标拦截的优先次序,先对模型进行描述,给出模糊相似关系矩阵及相应的计算方法,再以4种空袭兵器为作战对象,运用模型进行计算,得出直观的目标拦截排序结果,变模糊的、复杂的问题为直观的结论.为指挥员科学分配防空火力,最大限度地发挥防空导弹的制空效能奠定基础.     

A NEW STANDARD FOR PREEMPTIVE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST WMD THREATS

International law clearly requires an imminent threat of attack as a justification for the preemptive use of military force. However, the standard definition of an imminent threat was derived centuries before the development of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons or ballistic missiles and other delivery systems that can reach their targets in a matter of minutes. Any use of force to alleviate threats posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) prior to tactical warning of the actual launch of such weapons falls into the legally and ethically controversial category of “anticipatory self-defense,” leaving decision makers potentially liable to prosecution for war crimes. Effective and ethical enforcement of nonproliferation therefore demands a standard for imminence of threat broad enough to allow military action as a last resort but sufficiently restrictive to prohibit indiscriminate action against suspected WMD programs. Following a critical review of selected literature and cases on preemption, the author proposes a new standard for preemptive military action: the existence of operational WMD, or a clandestine program to develop WMD, in contravention of international law. The author discusses the implications of this new proposed standard, which at the time of writing would permit preemptive attack against WMD-armed terrorist groups but prohibit it against all states except Iran and possibly North Korea.     

基于正交实验设计的UAV编队配系优化方法

针对多无人机执行对地攻击作战任务的背景,建立了编队对地攻击模型,提出了基于正交实验设计的编队配系优化方法。在考虑多机协同作战因素下,构建了编队目标分配的基本模型;以探测、识别和杀伤为基本过程,构建了攻击过程模型;以空袭方付出代价、防空方毁伤程度和作战效率为依据,构建了目标函数模型,分析了模型中中间变量与目标函数之间的关系;利用正交实验设计原理,研究了编队配系优劣的评价方法。实例分析表明,该方法能够在已有的资源约束条件下,给出编队的最优配系方案。     

基于遗传算法的装备使用保障费用灰色组合预测

针对目前对武器装备寿命周期费用估算建模难以实施的情况,以准确预测武器装备寿命周期费用的主要组成部分—装备使用保障费用为出发点,依据装备使用保障费用的特点建立了装备使用保障费用的灰色组合预测模型,指出了用蚁群算法优化组合权系数的不足,并提出了新的优化方法—遗传算法。最后,结合实例验证说明了该模型的预测效果优于蚁群优化的方法,为准确估算武器装备寿命周期费用提供了依据。     

合成分队火力分配协同决策模型研究

针对合成分队火力分配效率和科学性不高的问题,采用协同决策思想对合成分队火力优化分配方法进行了研究。针对合成分队的作战特点提出了3种模型:建立了攻击力量类型相同的多种准则的火力分配模型,建立了攻击力量类型不同的基于双层规划的火力分配模型,建立了具有上级指定任务的分队内和分队间的火力协同分配模型,并对相关模型进行了实例仿真验证。提出的这3种模型能够解决合成分队在火力分配中的协同决策问题,可提高作战指挥决策的实时性和科学性。     

A defense allocation problem with development costs

In this paper, the mathematical model for the allocation of resources among a general mix of percentage vulnerable and of numerically vulnerable weapon systems is presented and solved. Percentage vulnerable systems consist of mobile weapons which are difficult to locate, but relatively easy to destroy once located; numerically vulnerable systems comprise easily located fixed base weapons which are difficult to destroy. The distinguishing feature of this analysis is the inclusion of development costs. The theory of max-min is extended as necessary to solve this problem. References are provided to a sequence of earlier versions of this problem.     

A Doctrine without Dogma

ABSTRACT

In No Use: Nuclear Weapons and U.S. National Security Policy, Thomas M. Nichols calls for a constructive rethinking about the history of nuclear weapons and the attitudes that have grown up around them. Despite dramatic reductions since the end of the Cold War, the United States still maintains a robust nuclear triad that far exceeds the needs of realistic deterrence in the twenty-first century. Nichols advocates a new strategy of minimum deterrence that includes deep unilateral reductions to the US nuclear arsenal, a no-first-use pledge, withdrawing US tactical nuclear weapons from Europe, and ending extended nuclear deterrence for allies. The weakest part of his argument eschews nuclear retaliation against small nuclear states that attack the United States, opting instead to use only conventional weapons to guarantee regime change. He admits this will entail enormous cost and sacrifice, but cites the “immorality” of retaliating against a smaller power with few targets worthy of nuclear weaponry, which totally ignores the massive underground facilities constructed to shield military facilities in many of these states. Despite this, Nichols's thoughtful approach to post-Cold War deterrence deserves thoughtful consideration.     

PREVENTIVE ATTACKS AGAINST NUCLEAR PROGRAMS AND THE “SUCCESS” AT OSIRAQ

Advocates of the preventive use of force against emerging nuclear, biological, or chemical programs often look to the allegedly successful 1981 Israeli airstrike against Iraqi nuclear facilities at Osiraq. According to the conventional wisdom, this attack may have prevented Iraq from going nuclear before Operation Desert Storm in 1991. This article assesses the claim that the 1981 attack substantially delayed Iraqi acquisition of nuclear weapons, both by revisiting older debates and by introducing new evidence from Iraqi scientists. The article casts doubt on the conclusion that the attack was successful for three reasons: (1) the reactor itself was not well equipped to generate plutonium for a nuclear weapon; (2) illegal plutonium production would likely have caused a cutoff in the supply of nuclear fuel and an end to weapons activities; and (3) the attack may have actually increased Saddam's commitment to acquiring weapons. These conclusions have implications for the Bush Doctrine, as the lack of success in 1981 casts doubt on the possible success of future attacks against nuclear programs.     

Survival and effectiveness of a weapon system against a superior force (guerrilla warfare)

Stochastic models are developed for a weapon system which attacks at a certain rate, but withdraws when attacked (guerrilla warfare). The models yield as output the distributions and mean values in closed form of the survival period and number of attacks made. As input are, for the weapon system, attack rate or amount of ammunition and time horizon, and, for the opponent, kill rate and probability of killing the weapon system, given the opponent has been attacked (strike back performance of the opponent). One model allows, however, for strike back also by the weapon system, when attacked by the opponent. This model is then used to determine, when the weapon system should strike back. The models are based on the Poisson and the binomial processes. Consistency among the models is shown and an example is provided.     

相依目标群系统火力分配问题分析与解法

本文中讨论由若干个相依目标群组成的平面点目标系统的火力分配问题。对于武器型号相同的情形,得到了“边际毁伤递减原理”和“循序最优方案即全局最优方案”等结论,并在此基础上提出了问题的解算方法。对于武器型号不同的情形,提出了“循序最优枚举法”,并得出有关结论。