Layered defense of deceptively based ICBMs

The basing of ICBMs is a fundamental problem of defense analysis. Deceptive basing and antiballistic missile defense are two of the methods available to attempt to insure that there are ICBMs surviving after undergoing an attack. This article treats tradeoffs among missiles, silos or shelters, exoatmospheric interceptors, and endoatmospheric interceptors. Most of the analysis deals with 200 missiles, the number of MX missiles which were recommended to be moved among the 4600 shelters of the Multiple Protective Shelter (MPS) deployment, though some variants in the number of missiles (from 115 to 400) are also treated here. The basic reference point of the analysis is the provision of 1000 ICBM warheads delivered in a second strike. The combination of exoatmospheric interceptors and endoatmospheric interceptors is referred to as “layered defense.” Warheads are destroyed by interceptors after the warheads separate from the missile which carries them. Exoatmospheric interceptors are assumed to achieve a non-nuclear kill, while endoatmospheric interceptors are assumed to achieve either a non-nuclear or nuclear kill, depending on the technology available to both sides. Exoatmospheric interceptors may be capable of protecting value targets against the warheads of a second strike. To the extent that this can be achieved, they facilitate a first strike with relative impunity and hence are destabilizing. This article explores various layered defense topics.     

Did Star Wars Help End the Cold War? Soviet Response to the SDI Program

The Strategic Defense Initiative was a U.S. missile defense program that played a very prominent role in the U.S.–Soviet relationships in the 1980s and is often credited with helping end the Cold War, as it presented the Soviet Union with a technological challenge that it could not meet. This article introduces several official Soviet documents to examine Soviet response to SDI. The evidence suggests that although the Soviet Union expressed serious concerns about U.S. missile defense program, SDI was not a decisive factor in advancing arms control negotiations. Instead, the program seriously complicated U.S.–Soviet arms control process. SDI also failed to dissuade the Soviet Union from investing in development of ballistic missiles. The Soviet Union quickly identified ways to avoid a technological arms race with the United States and focused on development of advanced missiles and anti-satellite systems to counter missile defenses. Some of these programs have been preserved to the current day.     

美国的战区导弹防御及其核心系统

主要介绍了美国战区导弹防御的发展过程及其 4个核心系统 ,即“爱国者”PAC - 3、海军区域导弹防御系统、陆军战区高空区域导弹防御系统、海军全战区系统。     

美国导弹防御系统的发展动向分析

介绍了美国导弹防御系统的发展历程以及装备的研制、改进情况,指出了在现代战争中发展美国导弹防御系统的优势和重要性,重点探讨了国家导弹防御系统NMD、美国战区导弹防御系统TMD、海军全战区弹道导弹防御系统NTW、海军区域导弹防御系统NAD的性能及其特点,最后论述了美国导弹防御系统的发展动向分析,美国导弹防御系统的未来的防御手段,主要是新型的定向能武器和动能武器。     

反导动能拦截武器的现状与发展研究

介绍了动能拦截弹在弹道导弹防御中的应用,分助推段拦截、中段拦截、末段拦截对美国发展的动能拦截武器进行了详细说明。介绍了动能拦截弹的组成,给出了动能拦截器的关键技术,对动能拦截器技术的发展进行了阐述。     

The impact of the us strategic defence initiative on the space race

This paper models the space race between the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War using time series econometric modelling. The analysis shows that, post the Vietnam‐war era, military considerations play a key role in explaining the behaviour of US space expenditure. In particular, the US Department of Defense (DoD) Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) of the early 1980s is shown to result in a changing structure of the space race. This is expected to continue in the future with the current anti‐ballistic missile (ABM) programme and the withdrawal of the US from the ABM treaty of on space militarization.     

"标准-3"拦截弹对机动弹头的拦截有效性分析

以"标准-3"拦截弹的多次拦截试验情况为参考,根据其能力及试验中的表现,分析其总体设计方案和各项性能参数,建立数学仿真模型.在研究海基导弹防御指挥控制流程、拦截弹动力学模型和仿真算法的基础上,对拦截具有机动突防能力的弹道导弹目标进行仿真分析.获得拦截弹对机动突防目标拦截有效性的仿真结果.分析仿真结果可知,拦截弹对机动弹头的拦截能力有限.     

美国国防部资助的实验室体系架构

美国国防部管理或委托管理的实验室散布在大学、联邦资助的研发中心和直属科研机构中，是美国国防科技创新体系的一支重要力量。文章从科研经费、人员规模、研究特色等方面对这些实验室进行分类介绍和分析，勾勒出其体系架构，以期对我们布局和建设以国防科技研发为核心任务的实验室、中心等科研机构提供参考。     

Minimum deterrence and missile defenses: what's new,what's true,what's arguable

Minimum deterrence is a compromise, or halfway house, between nuclear abolition or nearly zero and assured destruction, the dominant paradigm for strategic nuclear arms control during and after the cold war. Minimum deterrence as applied to the current relationship between the United States and Russia would require downsizing the numbers of operationally deployed long-range nuclear weapons to 1000, or fewer, on each side. More drastic bilateral Russian–American reductions would require the cooperation of other nuclear weapons states in making proportional reductions in their own arsenals. In addition, US plans for European-based and global missile defenses cause considerable angst in Russia and threaten to derail the Obama “reset” in Russian–American relations, despite the uncertainties about current and plausible future performances of missile defense technologies.     

美国国防太空力量发展的动向及应对 ——基于对美国2020年《国防太空战略》的解读

发展国防太空力量是美国谋划大国竞争的战略支点。特朗普政府执政以来,为捍卫一超独霸的太空地位,加速推进太空军事化进程,已制定《国家太空战略》,签署新的太空政策指令,成立第六军种“天军”。2020年6月,美国公开最新版《国防太空战略》报告。本文对其梳理分析以研判美国国防太空力量发展动向,并运用网络调研法搜集近年美国政府部门关于国防太空力量发展的权威政策文本及知名智库的深度研究报告。在此基础上,把美国2020年最新版《国防太空战略》作为中心文本,以文献分析法归纳美国国防太空力量发展的动因、目标及行动计划。中国作为负责任的发展中太空大国,应当积极借鉴并应对美国2020年《国防太空战略》：内强素质,提升国防太空军事技术硬实力;外树形象,在国际场合积极推动太空和平利用的政策议程。     

弹道导弹防御中多目标拦截的策略

多目标拦截是弹道导弹防御的重大难题,也是目前美国导弹防御系统所遇到的最大的技术难点。在将多目标问题分为单弹头攻击和多弹头攻击2类问题的基础上,结合美国的相关研究计划,分别针对核爆炸防御、助推段防御、先进的目标识别器和多拦截器防御等多目标拦截策略进行了分析研究。     

美军“爱国者”导弹武器系统维修保障研究

美国及其他军事强国都将导弹武器系统维修保障作为每年国防投入的重点内容之一,维修保障也已成为国外军工企业拓展军品产业链、保障企业持续获得收入的重要业务之一。“爱国者”导弹武器系统作为美军防空的主战装备,研究维修保障主要做法能够揭示美军导弹武器系统维修保障状况。从“爱国者”导弹武器系统的两级维修体制、陆军延寿计划两大方面分析其维修保障的主要做法及未来发展趋势,对于持续提升我军导弹武器系统维修保障水平具有重要参考价值。     

The rise and fall of counterproliferation policy

The US government initiated a Defense Counterproliferation Initiative to address the concern that, in the post-Cold War years, the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons would be widespread and create a significant challenge to the US military’s combat operations. In particular, non-nuclear states might use chemical or biological warfare agents against US forces with the belief that nuclear weapons would not be used against them in retaliation. Following the events of September 11, 2001, defense strategy and policy shifted to a wider view of the threat of adversarial use of “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD) and the term “counterproliferation” was replaced by “combating” or “countering WMD.” Over time, the Defense Department increasingly moved away from counterproliferation principles with the detrimental effect of losing capabilities that US forces still need for contemporary adversaries. This shift has been aggravated by other US government agencies’ use of “counterproliferation” in lieu of what would have been termed “nonproliferation” activities in the 1990s. The loss of clarity within the US government on these terms has led to the inability to focus the “whole of government” on this significant national security challenge. To alleviate this challenge, the US government needs a top-down initiative to refocus policy on the distinctly different aspects of WMD with respect to military combat operations, combating terrorism, and homeland security.     

Systems analysis and planning-programming-budgeting systems (PPBS) for defense decision making

Systems analysis office titles have permeated both government and business organization charts in recent years. Systems analysis as a discipline, however, even though increasingly accepted, has eluded precise definition. For the most part, it has been loosely described as “quantitative common sense” and “the general application of the scientific method.” Emphasis is placed upon the application of eclectic disciplines to a wide variety of problems. Concepts and techniques have been drawn heavily from economics, mathematics, and political science. In the Department of Defense, systems analysis has been used extensively in the evaluation of weapon systems during the last 9 years. During the 1960's, it provided the underlying concepts for the control system PPBS (Planning-Programming-Budgeting System). This article traces the origins of systems analysis within the Department of Defense and describes and analyzes the application of the technique. Although there always exists disagreement, it is generally accepted that the origin of systems analysis coincided with the inception of R. S. McNamara's administration of the Department of Defense. McNamara organized the Systems Analysis office under Mr. Charles Hitch, who had previously developed many basic systems analysis concepts at project RAND. From Hitch's basic concepts, the approach became increasingly sophisticated in evaluating complex weapons systems. Coincidently, the organizational procedures for implementing systems analysis also evolved. Under the current Department of Defense administration, the new organizational procedures emerging are contrasted with the old.     

A trajectory for homeland ballistic missile defense

The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is intended to protect the US homeland against limited attacks from intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles. It has succeeded in intercepting target missiles and can engage a threat launched from North Korea or the Middle East, targeting any point in the USA. Nevertheless, high-profile struggles and program changes related to homeland ballistic missile defense (BMD) continue to make headlines. The most significant struggle has been a string of three straight intercept test failures over five years, followed by the recent successful intercept test in June 2014. This article first briefly reviews the current threats of concern. It then examines homeland BMD policy objectives, followed by the current major technical issues in supporting these objectives and, then, the likelihood of negating a warhead. Finally, it highlights major considerations that should be part of the trajectory the US government takes moving forward.     

俄罗斯空天防御教学训练设备发展与问题研究

俄罗斯按照建设航天力量的需求，积极研究现代空天防御教学技术设备。俄罗斯空天防御教学训练设备可帮助受训者利用所获得的知识与能力，在准备和完成实践任务时在不同系统设备间实现不同级别的综合协同，将实现结构和软件的模块化。俄航天兵使用空天防御教学训练设备的经验对军队空天防御专业人员训练具有重要的借鉴意义。本文分析了俄罗斯空天防御教学训练设备现状，研究了朱可夫空天防御军事学院一体化空天防御自动化控制系统教学试验模型的构成、原理、作用和应用，总结了俄罗斯空天防御教学训练设备在国家标准、教学法、工效学和组织方面存在的主要问题及解决办法，以期为军队空天防御教学训练设备发展提供参考。     

美国空间军事系统发展新动向

综述了美国在军事空间技术新的发展动向,包括美国空军的“空间军力加强、空间军力应用、空间支援、空间对抗”四大空间军事任务区,快速响应空间,新的空天进攻飞行器,军事小卫星运载器,军事小卫星,导弹防御先进技术等的发展动态。分析了军事空间技术的发展趋势。     

反舰导弹发展趋势分析及其末端防御

分析了现代反舰导弹的特点(包括超声速反舰导弹的弱点)及未来发展趋势,论述了当前国外反导防御的手段及新思想,指出末端防御的重要性。主要讨论了目前防空反导系统存在的困难及火控系统存在的局限性,总结了反舰导弹末端具有的弱点(红外特征明显、速度过大不易机动等),从系统的角度论述了末端拦截反舰导弹的可行性及需研究的新技术。     

2010年美国弹道导弹防御系统发展现状与趋势

2010年美国弹道导弹防御系统发展发生重大变化。从导弹防御发展策略入手,总结略有不同的一体化导弹防御系统建设进展,并结合一年来美国导弹防御系统发展动向,分析未来导弹防御系统的发展趋势。     

US paramilitary programs in comparative perspective: CIA,the US Army Special Forces,and the question of organizational form

Assumed in the long-standing debate over which agency, CIA or the Department of Defense, should conduct US paramilitary operations is the idea that these organizations’ paramilitary programs are fundamentally the same kinds of things. This article questions that assumption by investigating the organizational forms underlying these agencies’ paramilitary programs in four empirical cases drawn from South Vietnam and post-9/11 Afghanistan. A typology is constructed around two identified organizational forms: “franchising” for CIA vs. “company ownership” for the US Army Special Forces. Different paramilitary organizational forms are found to have significant operational implications that should inform the paramilitary transfer debate.