特朗普政府太空防卫战略调整的动因、 特点与影响

面对太空领域变化的安全环境和自身实力的相对衰弱,特朗普政府对美国的太空防卫战略进行了重大调整。相比奥巴马政府的太空防卫战略,特朗普政府明确将太空作为新型作战域,加快天军建设,并以中俄为主要对手,联合盟友构建军民一体、内外联动的太空防卫体系。本文认为,特朗普政府对于太空防卫战略的调整凸显了美国欲加快太空武器化、谋求外空绝对军事力量优势的霸权企图。但这无疑会加剧目前愈演愈烈的太空"安全困境",将更多国家拉入"太空军备竞赛"的恶性循环中,对国际太空安全和全球战略稳定带来消极影响。展望拜登政府的太空防卫政策,其军事色彩会略微下降,但也将更重视技术积累和太空的开发利用。     

【邀请论文】特朗普政府太空防卫战略调整的动因、特点与影响

面对太空领域变化的安全环境和自身实力的相对衰弱,特朗普政府对美国的太空防卫战略进行了重大调整。相比奥巴马政府的太空防卫战略,特朗普政府明确将太空作为新型作战域,加快天军建设,并以中俄为主要对手,联合盟友构建军民一体、内外联动的太空防卫体系。本文认为,特朗普政府对于太空防卫战略的调整凸显了美国欲加快太空武器化、谋求外空绝对军事力量优势的霸权企图。但这无疑会加剧目前愈演愈烈的太空“安全困境”,将更多国家拉入“太空军备竞赛”的恶性循环中,对国际太空安全和全球战略稳定带来消极影响。展望拜登政府的太空防卫政策,其军事色彩会略微下降,但也将更重视技术积累和太空的开发利用。     

俄罗斯的太空安全观

太空被视为俄罗斯的国家总体实力与军事实力的象征。维护太空安全与太空力量的平衡，成为俄罗斯国家战略考虑的问题。面对美国太空武器化的政策，为保证其进出太空的自由和其太空战略利益，俄罗斯对此做出回应。一方面，联手中国等国家呼吁国际社会限制太空武器化；另一方面谋求“非对称反击”手段，发展相关反制武器，不让美国在太空武器领域一枝独秀。     

未来30年太空安全发展趋势及影响

“太空安全战略”专题编者按 组稿专家：杨乐平（国防科技大学空天科学学院教授、博士生导师） 近年来,以美国重建太空司令部与天军独立为标志,国际太空领域战略竞争与军事对抗日益加剧,太空前所未有地应用于军事与安全,太空安全也受到了前所未有的挑战。为了解未来太空安全发展和主要国家太空安全战略动向,深化太空安全战略研究,《国防科技》编辑部于2021年6月启动“太空安全战略”专题征文活动,国内相关学者积极投稿,经专家遴选,本期发表入选稿件6篇。来稿内容涵盖未来30年太空安全发展预测、美国太空安全最新发展、俄罗斯太空安全政策、欧盟太空安全政策、日本太空安全战略以及印度太空力量发展等主题,较为全面地反映了当前国际太空安全领域的最新发展与战略动向。从长远看,随着地球以外人类活动的增加、太空新经济蓬勃发展和太空创造财富规模不断扩大,水平大幅提升,太空将超越陆、海、空成为国家安全最重要的领域。从这个意义上讲,太空安全战略研究学术价值与影响较大,值得高度关注。     

美国太空网络融合——表现及影响

美国太空网络融合问题发源自科技自然发展和美国战略运筹的交会,是美国强化新域新质作战力量的新探索。通过对美国太空网络融合的概念实质、推动因素、效果影响进行阐述,得到如下结论：未来美国太空网络融合将给世界带来军事与安全、经济与商业的全维联动冲击,给国际太空安全带来新的危机与挑战。面对这样的形势,中国应该注重威胁判断、顶层布局以及太空网络融合的军事、商业和技术运作,并在新情境下的国际太空安全治理中承担大国责任,贡献中国力量。     

空间对抗：美国攻防并重

美国对空间的依赖导致美国面临着空间威胁，美军称其太空设备存在巨大的安全弱点，并正积极设法加强卫星对攻击和干扰的防御。正是因此，即使面临着国际社会的强烈反对，美国依然态度强硬地宣布“美国有权自卫，保护国家太空利益，并能够阻止对手使用敌对太空能力”。近年来，随着国际环境的变化，美国太空对抗的发展也呈现出了新的特点：调整了空间对抗的发展战略，提出了防御与攻击相结合的“太空反制”战略，空间态势感知与空间防御成为美国空间对抗的发展重点，探索与积累进攻性空间对抗技术，而不轻易发展实战武器。同时，进一步加强了确保太空优势的创新研究和试验，加快了新一代太空技术与平台的研发，决心构建绝对安全的太空屏障。     

美国国防战略述评

为巩固全球领导地位和保障全球安全,美国从四个方面构建核心国家利益：第一,保障美国、美国公民及美国盟国的安全：第二,构建充满活力和机会的国际经济体系促进美国经济的创新及长足发展：第三,尊重美国本土及世界的普世价值：第四,由美国领导国际秩序,迎接全球挑战,加强合作,促进和平与安全。     

剖析美国“数字地球”计划

1998年,美国副总统戈尔提出了“数字地球”的概念。其根本目的是为其实现“全球到达”、“全球存在”、“全球作战”的全球霸权服务。为早日实现这一目的,美国积极推动和倡导实施“数字地球”计划。200HD年2月,美国航天飞机“奋进号”在太空执行了“雷达地形测绘使命”,完成了地球     

太空安全问题论略

冷战结束后，越来越多国家进入太空，太空轨道拥挤和太空碎片增多，太空安全出现新情况：航天器相互碰撞和碎片撞击航天器的几率增加。美国为谋求制天权，力图使太空武器化，拒绝有关禁止太空部署武器条约的谈判。为了对抗美国的霸权，一些国家也在开始研发、试验新太空武器，导致太空安全困境的再次出现和进一步恶化。未来太空安全取决于美国的态度和国际社会的努力。     

美国太空作战理论的演变历程

自进入太空开始,美国依据国际环境和科学技术的发展变化,其太空战作战理论也在不断进行调整,以便更好地服务于国家安全。按照战略侧重点的不同,美国太空作战理论长期演变和发展的过程可分为美苏冷战、全球反恐和重回大国竞争三个时期,先后出现了“太空控制学说”“太空庇护所”“新边疆”等理论,在开发和利用太空的能力不断提升过程中,“太空控制”理论逐步占据了主流,共同形成了较为完整的太空作战理论体系。     

谈奥巴马时代美国的联合国政策

奥巴马对联合国政策的调整，反映出奥巴马政府全球外交和安全战略的需要，体现了实用主义外交风格。较之于其前任，奥巴马将更加重视联合国维和行动，并让联合国更多地参与解决包括伊拉克和阿富汗在内的热点问题。奥巴马的联合国政策面临挑战，联合国仅仅是奥巴马实现美国国家利益的手段之一。     

ADVANCED US CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

The Obama administration has made a great effort to increase the role of advanced conventional weaponry in US national security thinking and practice, in part to help reinvigorate the global nuclear disarmament agenda by reducing the role played by nuclear weapons in the US defense posture. However, such a strategy is fundamentally flawed because increases in US conventional superiority will exacerbate US relative strength vis-à-vis other powers, and therefore make the prospect of a nuclear weapon-free world seem less attractive to Washington's current and potential nuclear rivals. Consequently, it is highly likely that the impact of efforts to increase US advanced conventional superiority through ballistic missile defense and a conventional “prompt global strike” program will ensure that the Obama administration is adopting a pathway to nuclear abolition on which it is the sole traveler for the foreseeable future.     

ALTERNATIVE NARRATIVES FOR ARMS CONTROL

The efforts of President Barack Obama and his administration to restore the United States as a driving force of multilateral arms control and nonproliferation negotiations are commendable, yet the lack of progress on such issues over the last eight years has ensured that U.S. policy has not kept pace with changes in the geostrategic environment and the evolving security agenda. Meanwhile, an alternative agenda has been articulated by non-Western countries. This article focuses on the arms control perspectives of Non-Aligned Movement states and others that have begun to embrace the idea of “disarmament as humanitarian action.” It explores this idea in the context of recent initiatives and argues that if the Obama administration wants to make progress on its arms control and nonproliferation priorities, it should consider a multifaceted approach that incorporates this emerging alternative agenda.     

The Finger on the Button

Taiwan's international status is such that the country's ability to trade and to supply certain goods and technologies remains its primary means of practicing diplomacy and asserting international influence. U.S. pressure to conform to international nonproliferation standards has made the issue of export controls a troubling one for Taiwan. Limiting Taiwan's economic relations affects its ability to sustain itself economically and to maintain productive relations with other nations. On the other hand, as a recipient of U.S. high-technology transfers and security assurances, Taiwan cannot ignore the directives of the United States. The article focuses on this dilemma and how a shift in power to the Democratic Progressive Party is affecting Taiwan's choice between placing limitations on its global economic power or risking being cut off from U.S. technology and losing U.S. security assurances. In order to address this challenge properly, Taiwan will need to reassess its fundamental economic and security interests.     

VERIFIABILITY,RELIABILITY, AND NATIONAL SECURITY

The rejection of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) by the U.S. Senate in October 1999 could have been avoided, and the consequences of that vote still loom in the minds of supporters of the treaty. President Barack Obama has embraced the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons, and a key element of the Obama administration's arms control agenda is delivering on U.S. CTBT ratification. In order to secure the two-thirds majority in the Senate necessary to ratify the treaty, senators that remain skeptical of nuclear disarmament must also be convinced that the entry into force of the CTBT is in the national security interest of the United States. This article provides an analysis of the issues surrounding U.S. CTBT ratification divided into three segments—verifiability of the treaty, reliability of the U.S. stockpile, and the treaty's impact on U.S. national security—and concludes that CTBT ratification serves the security objectives of the United States. The CTBT constitutes an integral component of the multilateral nonproliferation architecture designed to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and it constrains the qualitative development of nuclear weapons, thereby hindering efforts by states of concern to develop advanced nuclear weapons.     

美军太空安全与应急响应发展研究

鉴于美军的太空作战走在世界前列，从顶层设计、信息网络、态势感知、作战应用等方面分析了美军太空安全体系的建设现状，重点指出了其在太空安全应急响应方面的发展趋势和启示，对我国太空安全研究具有参考作用。     

Measuring Military Professionalism in Partner Nations: Guidance for Security Assistance Officials

The U.S. spends billions of dollars in its security cooperation program to develop “professional, accountable, and capable security forces” in other nations, part of a grand strategy to improve global stability and counter violent extremism. Despite its great investment in professionalizing foreign militaries, however, the U.S. has no functional definition of military professionalism – a term that until now has been considered too vague and multi-faceted to operationalize. In this article, the author seeks to remedy this oversight, drawing from twenty years of security cooperation fieldwork in Latin America and Africa, as well as a vigorous literature review, to define four important components of military professionalism: (1) formal military education and vocational training, (2) military subordination to elected civilian officials, (3) knowledge and practice of the law of armed conflict and human rights law, and (4) a clearly established program of professional military ethics. This article provides guidelines for U.S. and European officials who work with partner nations to develop more professional military forces and, in particular, for officials managing security assistance programs with developing countries.     

非对称相互依赖下的美日军事同盟机制分析——以奥巴马政府“重返亚太”为视角

2012年1月5日,美国国防部发表了《保持美国的全球领导地位:21世纪的防务重点计划报告》,在"重返亚太"战略的战略背景下,重点针对美国未来的军事力量结构、全球部署态势、军事战略目标等进行了重新规划。新军事战略调整对整个国际格局和地区性大国产生深远影响。随着美国重返亚太的战略调整,军事上的相互依赖程度体现在美日同盟之间尤为突出。本文仅从军事战略角度,运用《权力与相互依赖》中部分理论对其调整下的美日军事同盟机制进行分析。     

FOUNDATIONS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY: PREPARING TO KEEP THE PEACE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

Since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the continent of Africa, particularly Greater East Africa, has played an increasingly signifi cant role in United States (US) national security strategy. Transnational security threats and political authoritarianism continue to plague the region, creating calls for greater US and international involvement. Before reacting to the situation, however, it is prudent to pause, reflect, and understand that the United States developed strategic relations with nation-states in the region well before contemporary concerns for international terrorism and ungoverned spaces entered the strategic lexicon. Toward a more comprehensive understanding of Greater East Africa's strategic history, this paper examines the core strategic relationship in the region, US-Kenya relations, its origins and implications, and offers policy recommendations that will affect future international security.     

美军航天力量发展走势分析

美军一直奉行全球战略极度依赖天基信息支援。美军航天力量在夺取制天权,确保战时进入、利用太空自由,为海外军事行动提供信息支撑方面发挥决定性作用。美军认为航天领域颠覆性技术的应用将会迅速而深刻地颠覆传统战争规则,是应对新兴国家军事威胁,实施第三次"抵消战略"的核心技术。美军高度重视航天力量装备规划、体制编制、理论研究和人才培养的创新发展。研究近年来美军航天力量的建设发展重点,可以透过其一系列的航天力量发展规划,得出美军航天力量发展战略和走势,具有强的启示性。