基于灰色神经网络的装甲器材需求量预测

分析了装甲器材需求量影响因素,将灰色预测与神经网络预测方法相结合,建立了装甲器材需求量预测的灰色神经网络计算模型。该模型具有灰色系统的少数据建模及神经网络的精度可控性等优点,能较好地解决目前装甲器材需求预测精度不高的问题,可为装甲器材管理部门制定订购、调拨计划提供决策依据。     

航空装备维修费用的组合预测模型

通过分析回归分析法,BP神经网络和加速遗传算法原理,针对BP神经网络的变异特性,运用遗传算法对其进一步修正,最终建立了适用于航空装备维修保障费用的BP网络组合预测时间序列输出模型,结合某型航空装备维修保障费用数据进行预测系统仿真,得出结果实际数据相比误差较小.结论说明,此方法具有更高的预测精度,有较好的实际应用价值.     

基于BP神经网络法的后勤装备零配件需求预测

精确的零配件需求预测,是实现后勤装备精确化技术保障的基本前提。影响后勤装备零配件需求量的因素具有非线性特征,而BP神经网络法对复杂非线性问题具有很好的适应性,因此可以运用BP神经网络法对后勤装备零配件需求进行预测。运用BP神经网络方法,通过M脚本文件编程建立预测模型进行实证分析表明,运用该方法建模对后勤装备零配件需求量进行预测是科学可行的。     

基于改进的神经网络的军械备件需求预测

针对当前军械应急保障中备件供应需求依据经验判断,从而导致保障不精准的现实问题,浪费应急保障资源,削弱部队战斗力.在对军械备件需求量进行分析时发现,军械备件需求符合间断型备件需求特征.基于改进的神经网络军械应急维修备件需求预测模型,利用神经网络模型的强大非线性函数的拟合能力,将间断型的备件需求分解为两步.最终,将两个序列预测结果综合分析,得出军械备件需求预测结果.根据改进神经网络预测模型,结合某单位某军械装备保障数据,用总体数据的4/5作为训练数据,1/5作为测试数据进行预测,实验结果表明,改进的神经网络预测模型预测精度优于其他预测模型,预测精度符合预期,可以为军械应急保障提供依据.     

基于灰色神经网络武器装备研制费用预测模型

提出了基于灰色系统理论与神经网络的武器装备研制费用组合预测模型,该模型首先采用灰色GM(0,N)模型对研制费用进行预测,利用LMBP神经网络对预测误差进行了模拟与修正,实例验证该方法具有较高的预测精度.     

军用航空机务维修人员安全知识结构评价研究

随着军用航空装备复杂性、安全性的提升,对广大机务维修人员安全知识结构提出了更高的要求。以某机务部队现状为依据,研究航空机务维修人员安全知识结构评价问题。利用工作分析法对航空机务维修人员的工作进行了深入分析,建立了航空机务维修人员安全知识结构指标体系,通过构建基于熵权的改进BP神经网络模型对建立的知识体系结构进行评价。以某单位实际调研数据为基础,利用MATLAB仿真实现了模型的训练和测试,对机务维修人员的安全知识结构进行量化分析,为机务人员的安全知识能力培养提供决策依据和参考。     

遗传神经网络在保障资源需求预测中的应用

针对现代战争条件下装备保障资源需求变化快,保障资源预测困难的问题,首先分析了影响装备保障资源需求的因素,根据实际情况选取了平均维修间隔时间(MTBM)、平均修复时间(MTBR)等8项影响装备保障资源需求的关键指标,然后将基于遗传算法(GA)优化的反向传播(BP)神经网络应用于保障资源需求预测中,构建了基于遗传神经网络的需求预测模型,最后利用1980年～2010年实际保障资源需求数据对模型进行了验证.验证结果表明,基于GA优化的BP神经网络预测模型有较快的收敛速度、较强的适应性和较高的预测精度,适用于装备保障资源需求预测.     

地空导弹发控系统寿命预测的组合模型

将灰色系统理论和BP神经网络有效地结合起来,建立了灰色BP神经网络的组合预测模型,并采用遗传算法对该模型进行优化。为了验证优化后模型的有效性,采用灰色BP神经网络的预测结果进行对比分析。实际数据的预测结果表明,优化之后的模型比单独采用灰色BP神经网络,具有更小的均方差(MSE,Mean Square Error),对发控系统剩余寿命(RUL,Remaining Useful Life)也具有更高的预测精度。     

基于BP和Hopfield神经网络的航空肼燃料保障安全评价

针对航空肼燃料保障安全评价的复杂性和非线性,提出并建立了基于BP和Hopfield神经网络的动态安全评价模型。在综合分析国内外肼燃料保障安全评价的基础上,针对航空肼燃料保障过程中出现的问题,构建并优化了指标体系,选取前馈神经网络中的BP网络和反馈神经网络中的Hopfield网络建立评价模型。在详细说明了BP和Hopfield神经网络的构建方法后,进行实例验证,并对预测效果进行了比较分析。仿真表明,两种模型都能正确评价安全保障状态。但在收敛速度、联想记忆功能方面Hopfield神经网络优于BP神经网络。将BP和Hopfield神经网络用于肼燃料保障安全评价过程中,具有适用性和可行性,对于航空肼燃料保障的安全建设与安全管理研究具有重要意义。     

Elman动态灰色神经网络在电磁发射系统状态预测中的应用

基于电枢运行过程中所受到的多物理场作用机理,采用灰色理论对出口速度进行线性预测,分析了灰色理论存在的不足和改进措施,提出了一种Elman动态灰色神经网络并进行了仿真分析,然后将结果与传统的灰色神经网络结果进行了对比试验。结果表明:新的Elman动态神经网络预测方法具有较高的预测精度,可以为轨道式电磁发射系统连发决策、有效预防轨道烧蚀提供技术支撑。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.