俄罗斯国防工业"军转民"的经验和教训

国防工业“军转民”一直是困扰俄罗斯多年的难题。如何合理解决原苏联遗留下的庞大的国防工业,改变军事经济畸形发展模式,如何在新的市场经济条件下保证国防工业在先进的工艺基础上进行结构改革,如何保持国防工业科技创新和产业发展能力,形成军民品市场良好对接机制是俄罗斯复苏经济遇到的主要障碍,也是俄罗斯经济融入世界经济一体化过程中不可逾越的壁垒。     

从俄罗斯在叙军事行动看其对军品贸易的影响

俄罗斯是全球第二大军品供应国,军品贸易在俄罗斯政治中具有独特地位,是俄罗斯地缘政治中不可或缺的部分。俄罗斯在叙利亚军事行动前,军品贸易受到了西方制裁打压的影响。在叙军事行动,不仅为俄罗斯军品提供实战检验的机会,也为俄罗斯争取到军事技术合作的潜在盟友。     

透视俄罗斯国防工业特点及其发展趋势

苏联解体后,俄罗斯国内政局动荡、国家经济萧条、国防经费投入锐减,在这种百般困顿的“夹缝”中俄罗斯对国防工业进行了大刀阔斧的调整和改革,确立了新的国防工业发展模式。其中有不少可圈可点的成功之处和鲜明特点,并呈现出强劲的发展势头,对我国国防工业发展模式的选择具有一定的启示。     

重振雄风的俄罗斯国防工业

俄罗斯的军事工业是俄罗斯维持国力和国际地位最重要的经济部门,冷战结束后,由于得不到国家的足够拨款和生产定单,整个行业处于债务重重、生产大幅下降的困境之中。虽然进行过数次重组改革,但收效均不理想。改革不但没有提高其国防工业的科研与产品的竞争力、建立有效的运行机制,反而使其科研试验和生产潜力受到严重破坏,俄罗斯在高技术特别是信息技术领域,己与西方国家拉开了很大距离。为了在激烈竞争中保住军事大国的地位,保护其国防科     

俄罗斯军品出口对国防工业影响的实证分析

为了验证俄罗斯军品出品对国防工业的影响,本文运用协整理论及Granger检验进行实证分析,得出俄罗斯国防工业是"以出口养军工"的结论.在此基础上,对俄罗斯国防工业今后的发展进行了初步探讨,以期对我国国防工业发展起到一定的借鉴.     

分分合合——俄罗斯国防科技工业历经艰难改革

普京曾指出，国防工业是俄罗斯经济的火车头。这一方面是普京基于俄罗斯所面对的国际、国内环境的基本判断；另一方面在普京看来，富国强兵是提高俄罗斯国家竞争力的重要途径。俄罗斯国防科技工业管理体制和运行机制的调整改革基本贯穿这一指导思想。     

市场经济冲击下的俄罗斯国防工业

原苏联为保持其世界超级大国的地位,建立了门类齐全、规模庞大的国防工业体系。苏联解体后,在市场经济冲击下,俄罗斯将如何动作?文章在分析原苏联国防工业的特点和俄罗斯国防工业面临的问题的基础上,着重介绍了俄罗斯国防工业采取的一系列对策。     

S－300PMU－1反飞机及反战术弹道导弹防空导弹系统

Ｓ－３００ＰＭＵ－１反飞机及反战术弹道导弹防空导弹系统俄罗斯“国防工业出口公司”供稿张志鸿摘译一、研制历史５０年代苏联国土的防空网几乎都是以Ｓ－７５（即ＳＡ－２,盖德莱）和Ｓ－１２５（即ＳＡ－３,果阿）防空导弹系列为基础的。它们主要对付的分别为中高空...     

“经济寒冬”下俄军费使用效果

受国力所限，俄罗斯难以与美西方展开全面军备竞赛；经济寒冬中，俄军费一直受国家经济能力的制约。然而，在与美国为首的西方长期斗争中，俄重点加强研制列装新式“杀手锏”武器，形成了俄罗斯特色的军事斗争战略，即基于“杀手锏”武器的俄式“不对称”军事战略。这种以“杀手锏”武器为基石的“不对称作战”军事战略使军费支出产生了效费比高、针对性强、威慑力大的良好效果。文章重点透视近年来俄罗斯国防科技创新、作战理念创新、战术战法创新的最新动态，进而剖析俄保持较高的军费效费比、成功开展对外博弈的重要举措和深层次原因，它们包括继承消化苏联大部分的国防工业基础、加快国防科技工业转型、强化国防科技自主创新、通过对外军贸和军民融合运筹军费来源等。     

俄罗斯加强对国防工业的调整

俄罗斯加强对国防工业的调整刘忆宁１９９６年以来,俄罗斯决策层集中进行了一系列的军事改革,其中对国防工业的调整主要有以下几方面。一、调整国防工业管理体制由多个国防工业部门的设置转向国家综合部门管理。１９９２年撤消了前苏联部长会议所属的９个国防工业专业职...     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.