解禁“武器出口三原则”的日本向何处去——日本近期防卫政策调整动向

2011年底大幅放宽＂武器出口三原则＂以来,日本加紧防务政策调整,大力扩充军备,发展自主国防工业,高新武器纷纷亮相,日本武器在全球军火市场崭露头角,日本自卫队作战能力远远超出＂专守防卫＂范围,其谋求对外扩张的野心昭然若揭,复活军国主义的步子越迈越大。解禁＂武器出口三原则＂调整防卫政策彻底放宽武器出口限制。2011年12月27日,日本政府决定大幅放宽＂武器出口三原则＂,为参与装备研制、生产和国际合作大开绿灯。日本官房长官藤村修称,＂今后日本企业将可参与美国、澳大利亚和北约国家的武器研制和生产,有助于提升日本国防产业生产与技术,     

声音

“中国政府在武器出口方面历来采取十分慎重的态度，一贯严格遵守联合国安理会决议，从不向受到安理会武器禁运的国家或地区出口武器。中国向苏丹出口的常规武器数量十分有限，仅占苏丹军品进口的一小部分。有关组织的报告是毫无根据和别有用心的。”     

解禁后日本武器好卖吗？

去年12月27日,日本决定大幅放宽基于“武器出口三原则”形成的禁运政策,这意味着未来日本将可能对外出口武器。众所周知,日本自卫队使用的本国产新式武器由于价格昂贵,装备数量很少。这其中日本武器不能出口,新研制的武器只能供本国使用,使得武器总产量低,平摊到单件武器上的研发成本和生产成本过高,即使是采用低利润政策,售价仍让日本政府无力采购。     

俄制武器买主增多

苏联在军火贸易中奉行国家和军事利益至上,出口的武器有近1/4销售给华约国家。冷战结束后,俄罗斯在武器出口对象的选择上则更加强调经济利益,通过调整对外军事贸易政策,实行全方位的武器出口战略,不断拓展武器出口市场,与更多国家进行军火贸易,使军火出口状况不断好转、贸易额逐年提高。经过几年的徘徊,俄罗斯又恢复了世界军售大国的地位。     

硝烟弥漫的全球军火市场

冷战虽然结束,但世界军火市场仍硝烟弥漫。美国一向呼吁各国控制武器出口,然而现在它自己却是全球最大的武器出口国。经济的不景气,使美国政府亦借助出售武器来振兴其国防及航天工业,因而近年对武器出口大开绿灯。1992年,发展中国家采购的武器装备中,有57％来自美国,金额高达136亿美元。目前全球十大军火商中,美国占了前9名,去年,美国光是出口空军装备便达340亿美元。     

军贸市场：出口竞争日益激烈

2011年9月22日,美国国会研究局发布了《2003～2010年向发展中国家出口常规武器情况》报告。该报告指出,全球武器出口总额继续下降;美国武器出口合同额下降,但市场份额上升;发展中国家依然是全球武器出口的重要市场,向发展中国家的武器出口相对集中在印度、沙特阿拉伯等少数国家。     

试论日本对美提供军事技术的开启

20世纪80年代起,由于"美国需要"和"日本能够",日本逐步开启对美提供军事技术之门.里根和中曾根这两位鹰派保守政客分别在美日执政后,一致对苏采取强硬对抗战略,美国明显加快对日军事技术政策的调整步伐,日本亦积极配合并松绑"武器出口三原则"的严格限制.在系列互动之下,日本对美提供军事技术政策在1983年出现重要调整:中曾根内阁通过"对美武器技术提供"的内阁决议,打开了"提供"通道.其后,日美通过签署相关"备忘录"和"实施细则协定",构建了日本对美提供武器技术的制度和程序.同时,日美还启动"日美装备与技术磋商"、设立"联合武器技术委员会"等机制,全面落实双方军事技术合作.20世纪80年代日本对美提供军事技术的开启,为此后日本对外军事合作及同盟转型的进展奠定了初步基础.     

防务动态

<正>美军工行业游说美政界放松武器出口政策美国【防务新闻】周刊1月18日报道,代表美国军工行业的多个游说团体正在美国政界加紧活动,希望奥巴马政府放松武器出口政策。     

解读新版SIPRI全球军贸报告

正2016年2月22日,瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)发布了新版全球军贸报告。该报告对2011~2015年全球主要武器出口国、进口国及主要地区的军贸发展趋势进行了分析。与2006~2010年相比,2011~2015年全球武器出口交付额增长了14%,五大武器出口国为美国、俄罗斯、中国、法国和德国;五大武器进口国为印度、沙特阿拉伯、中国、阿联酋和澳大利亚;非洲、亚洲与大洋洲以及中东     

近年来全球军贸发展态势解析

正2020年3月,瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所发布了新版全球武器贸易报告。报告指出,全球武器贸易规模呈稳步增长态势;美国继续稳居武器出口国首位,俄罗斯仍然为第二大武器出口国,但出口规模下降,与美国的差距进一步加大;欧洲武器出口占全球近三成,其中法国表现尤为突出,且未来发展前景看好。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

SIM—LISP:一个通信网络管理专家系统外壳的设计与实现

本文介绍了笔者为开发名为OONMES的网络管理专家系统所实现的一个简单专家系统工具SIM-LISP。SIM-LISP是一个用C/C++语言来实现的模拟LISP语言的可调用函数集,它短小精巧,速度快,可以完成针对网管专家系统的事实或规则知识的表示、匹配、合一和推理等基本操作,并有与知识对象的连接功能,是网管专家系统内核实现的支撑环境。     

Al Qaida on the US invasion of Afghanistan in their own words

This article consists of selected translations from captured interviews and dairies of Al Qaida members. The time period covered is from mid-2001 to early 2002 and concerns their operations in Afghanistan. The material clearly conveys a range of emotion, from confident to despondent, as well as efforts to contest the US actions. The first several pages give the reader context and some possible “lessons learned,” but the story(ies) are best told by the Al Qaida members themselves. All names are pseudonyms.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.