“陆战之王”的“矛”与“盾”——坦克技术发展轶事与哲学启示

毛泽东同志在著名的《论持久战》中关于坦克讲过这样一段话:“古代战争,用矛用盾:矛是进攻的,为了消灭敌人;盾是防御的,为了保存自己。直到今天的武器,还是二者的继续。轰炸机、机关枪、远射程炮、毒气,是矛的发展;防空掩蔽部、钢盔、水泥工事、防毒面具,是盾的发展。坦克是矛盾二者结合为一的新式武器。” 毛泽东对坦克特点作了生动概括。互相排斥对立的“矛”与“盾”,怎么在坦克身上得到统一结合呢?坦克问世已80余年,伴随     

矛与盾寓言的现代版

布什入主白宫之后,他和他的国家安全要员不顾中俄等大国的反对以及其盟友的异议,执意要发展和部署国家导弹防御系统,即NMD。为此,美国空军还组织了一次以大空为主要战场的大规模演习。于是,一场争夺外层空间和反导优势的军备竞赛若箭在弦上,大国之间的战略平衡平添了许多新的变数。美国已经有了“无不陷之矛”,而今又要打造“莫不陷之盾”,除了其内政外交上的需要之外,恐怕是有一点“惟我独尊”的虚妄。因为这样一来,等于是要推出一个关于矛与盾寓言的现代版!     

世界最新军情扫描(58)

上合组织6国联合军演,引起世界关注,这是我陆军首次出国参加联合军演,与5国部队成功地进行了联合反恐;台湾当局计划今年11月从金门岛撤军,表面看是为了裁军,其背后却另有隐情;美国从不把小国伊朗放在眼里,但伊朗装备了俄罗斯的新型战机,使美国不得不刮目相看;世界上历来是有矛就有盾,有盾又有矛的反复,俄罗斯新型洲际导弹问世,表明美国的"反导之盾"赶不上俄罗斯的"导弹之矛"了;在中印两国关系恢复发展的趋势下,印度与台湾针对中国大陆暗送秋波,私下合作,显然是不明智的。     

“印度反导”冲击地区战略格局

2014年3月24日,印度海军从一座位于孟加拉湾的潜射装置中试射了一枚K-4潜射弹道导弹,射程超过2000千米。在已经拥有陆基和空基核打击能力的基础上,印度又填补了自己水下核威慑力量的空白。同月,又爆出印度正推动数家以色列防务公司与DRDO（印度国防研究与发展局）合作以完善自己的导弹防御系统的消息。实际上,2013年底,印度已经进行了反弹道导弹（ABM）的最后一轮开发试验。在试验中,多枚来袭弹道导弹被成功拦截。在拥有强大攻击能力的同时,大象之国“天空之盾”的进一步发展必将对南亚乃至整个亚洲地区的战略格局形成极大的冲击。     

美国“全民缉凶”的启示

<正>恐怖与反恐怖是一场不对称战争。对恐怖组织而言,纵有百次失败,只有一次得手,就是成功,就是胜利。而对反恐来说,"百密"中有"一疏",就满盘皆输。恐袭与防范就是一对"矛"与"盾"的关系,以"矛"攻"盾",攻方总是站据主动,令守方防不胜防。美国反恐战打了几十年,小布什发起的全球反恐战争也进行了十几年,可谓战果累累,美中央情报局、联邦调查局等职能部门也是尽职尽责,心力交瘁,制止了多起恐怖阴谋的发生,但仍让波士顿袭击得逞,其中原因值得深思,反恐方法也应该检讨。职能部门反恐中的"短板"只能由社会来弥补,"全民参与"才是正道。     

开打：美之“矛”PK叙之“盾”

近日来,美军手执化武疑案,重兵集结地中海,兵临叙利亚家门口,双方剑拔弩张,大有战争一触即发之势。美国国防部长哈格尔宣称：“我们已调动相关资源就位,做好了立刻完成总统任务的准备。”面对美军的磨刀霍霍,叙利亚总统巴沙尔呼吁国民“拯救祖国”,并坚信“如果美国敢对叙利亚采取军事行动,那么失败将一如之前的越战和伊拉克战争那样等着美国”。对于军迷朋友,大家更想知道的是：一旦战争爆发,究竟是美军的“矛”利,还是叙军的“盾”坚,二者碰撞的结果如何呢？     

风雨·雷电·海啸

一部战争史,也是一部武备竞赛史。矛和盾的发展,让当今人们把目光投放在新型战机上,投放在太空武器上,一投放在深海潜水器上,投放在新一代核武器和导弹上,投放在高效能反潜装备上,投放在谁拥有更新更多的航母上,投放在国家和地区反导系统上……     

毛主席深谋远虑决胜千里——揭秘“640工程”

<正>2010年1月11日,我国对外宣布成功进行了一次陆基中段反导试验,消息传出,引起世界的极大关注,国内媒体也对其进行了大量的推测和报道,神秘的640工程也浮现到了人们眼前。众所周知,美国八十年代的星战计划是拖垮前苏联的浩大工程。中国一直沉默,其实早已成竹在胸。早在六十年代,在毛泽东的推动下,世界上第一个反导工程——640工程,已经成形。毛泽东对钱学森说:有矛就有盾,要研究导弹防御问题。     

驱逐舰的现状与发展趋势

兵器就是矛和盾的相互超越。为了对付鱼雷艇,海战场上便出现了专门打击鱼雷艇的炮艇。后来逐步发展成独立的舰种,即驱逐舰。它在发展演变过程中,逐步担负起诸多的海上使命。随着导弹装备到舰艇上,导弹驱逐舰便诞生了。本文简要地介绍了驱逐舰的现状和发展趋势。     

红旗猎猎震乾坤——中国航天科工二院创建60周年发展纪实

<正>中国航天科工二院建院60年来,肩负国家民族的重托,坚持"有矛必有盾"的发展哲学,不忘初心,牢记使命,以航天梦助力中国梦,谱写出祖国空天防御事业的华丽篇章。不忘初心履行圆梦航天的神圣使命国之勇在于剑,国之强在于盾。1957年11月16日,我国第一个专门研究导弹控制系统的研究院——国防部第五研究院二分院正式成立,这就是二院的前身。早在1957年10月     

军校学员自尊与攻击行为相关研究

以152名军校学员为研究对象,使用内隐联想测验测量内隐自尊;选择Rosenberg自尊量表、元自尊量表、社会期望量表作为测量外显自尊、区分防御性高自尊和安全性高自尊的工具;使用攻击量表作为测量攻击行为的指标。通过对不同自尊测量结果与学员攻击行为的相关研究,探讨了学员自尊对攻击行为的影响。结果表明：（1）学员的内隐自尊效应显著,但与攻击行为的关系不显著;（2）自尊与攻击行为之间存在显著的负相关,高自尊的人不易产生攻击行为,但防御性高自尊学员和安全性高自尊的学员在攻击行为上差异显著。     

便携式防空导弹拦截巡航导弹可行性研究

分析了巡航导弹和便携式红外寻的防空导弹的攻防特点,对便携式红外寻的防空导弹拦截巡航导弹的可行性进行了探讨。攻防对抗仿真结果表明,防空导弹在一定条件下能够有效拦截超低空突袭的巡航导弹。     

装甲火控可靠性建模

装甲武器是陆军及其两栖机械化部队实施地面突击的主要兵器,也是海军陆战部队实施抢滩登陆、岛屿攻防的主要兵器。装甲火控是装甲武器的重要组成部分,其可靠性直接影响装甲武器的打击效能。两栖装甲武器肩负海上、陆上的作战使命,使用环境更加恶劣,可靠性问题更加突出。描述了装甲火控的一般组成、功能及工作方式,基于两栖装甲武器的使用特点,分析了装甲火控基本任务、工作方式和作战环境的关系,建立了不同任务剖面的可靠性模型,为装甲火控可靠性设计、分析提供了一种参考。     

Constraining missile defence†

Assessing missile defence through the prism of offence–defence theory requires primarily an examination of legal and structural constraints on future development. New weapons technology is frequently cited as having the most critical impact on the offence–defence balance. Yet, the method for assessing the introduction of a new weapons technology tends to neglect projected maturity and instead focus excessively on the initial rudimentary capabilities. It is argued here that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO’s) missile defence is set to incrementally become more advanced in terms of quality, quantity and mobility, which is supported by a strategy that is increasingly favouring offence. As the system gradually enhances the offensive advantage vis-à-vis Russia, NATO categorically rejects any legal or structural constraints on future deployments.     

Operational Combat Analysis of the Al Qaeda Network

Contemporary network organizational structures have gradually developed over the last decades of the twentieth century. These new structures are challenging the traditional hierarchical structure form in a number of venues. In conflict and war, they made their potentials unequivocally known on 11 September 2001 via Al Qaeda's strategic suicide bombings against the United States. To better understand the military potentials of networks, an operational combat analysis of the Al Qaeda network was conducted. This analysis, a modification of weapons systems analysis, focused on network speed, along with offensive, defensive and combat multiplier attributes. Such analysis allows for a better understanding of the military capabilities and vulnerabilities of non-state OPFORs (opposing forces) and our own emergent counter-insurgency networks.     

基于DoDAF的装备体系结构建模方法

美军DoDAF体系结构框架是一种重要的武器装备体系建模标准,对于保证武器装备系统之间可集成性、可互操作性具有重要的借鉴意义。为支撑武器装备体系建设的统一建模过程,优化体系结构和控制变更影响,文章力图在“能力需求牵引”作战思想指导下．提出基于DoDAF标准的结构化武器装备体系结构建模方法。采用DoDAF基线产品与用户自定义产品（基于“适用”原则）相结合的方式,从建模框架、流程、方法和支撑产品等方面对武器装备体系结构建模方法进行系统研究。由于使用结构化建模方式,在建模过程中采用与开发了相关的基础建模产品,从而使得模型更具针对性,建模过程更加直观、具体和易于操作。     

Strategic “defensivism” and post-reset blues: US–Russian nuclear arms reductions,missile defenses and minimum deterrence

US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy may be moving, by design and by inadvertence, toward a posture of strategic “defensivism”. Strategic “defensivism” emphasizes the overlapping and reinforcing impact of: (1) reductions in US, Russian and possibly other strategic nuclear forces, possibly down to the level of “minimum deterrence,” (2) deployment of improved strategic and/or theater antimissile defenses for the US, NATO allies and other partners; and (3) additional reliance on conventional military forces for some missions hitherto preferentially assigned to nuclear weapons. This article deals with the first two of these aspects only: the interaction between missile defenses and offensive force reductions in US–Russian strategy and policy. The findings are that stable deterrence as between the USA and Russia is possible at lower than New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty levels, but reductions below 1000 deployed long-range weapons for each state, toward a true minimum deterrent posture, will require multilateral as opposed to bilateral coordination of arms limitations. Missile defenses might provide some denial capability against light attacks by states with small arsenals, but they still fall short of meaningful damage limitation as between powers capable of massive nuclear strikes.     

WHY IRAN WANTS THE BOMB AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR US POLICY

Understanding why the Iranian regime wants to possess nuclear weapons is essential to formulating the best policy to prevent (or perhaps to simply manage) the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran. Three general theories—realism, liberalism, and constructivism—provide a framework for looking at Iran's nuclear motivations. However, contrary to many analyses, the regime's desire to possess nuclear arms stems not from neorealist defensive concerns, but rather from offensive goals driven by domestic politics. The use of extremist Islamism by the Iranian regime to justify its autocratic rule is the primary motivating factor. Accordingly, the outlook for diplomatically addressing the Iranian regime's nuclear aspirations appears dim.     

Modern liberal wars,illiberal allies,and peace as the failure of policy

ABSTRACT

The post-Cold War period nearly up to the present has been characterised as the age of liberal wars, yet key facets of the liberal guidance of war remain under appreciated. This article seeks to address this wider gap with regard to the particular concern of war termination and the fulfilment or failure of policy. First, it develops characterisations of liberal wars based on the existing literature, identifying three broad types through consideration of context—defensive versus offensive—and of political and strategic agency, particularly regarding the motives for and intents of action. Three types of liberal wars result: defensive liberal wars, offensive liberal wars with humanitarian motive and geopolitical intent, and offensive liberal wars with geopolitical motive and humanitarian intent. The article then presents one exemplary case for each liberal war with an emphasis on how liberal strategy required an illiberal ally and that ally's effect on the subsequent peace.     

水面舰艇攻势防御的效能评估及优势论证

进攻是最好的防守。针对水面舰艇攻势防御问题,对水面舰艇攻势防御的概念及使用前提进行了讨论,通过与守势防御的比较,从理论上对攻势防御的优势进行了论证。最后,根据论证结果、数据仿真及作战实际,给出了攻势防御的使用原则。