临近空间高超声速目标跟踪IMMCPF算法

临近空间高超声速目标具有机动特性强、轨迹变化快、强非线性等特点,在目标跟踪的过程中,易出现跟踪精度降低、滤波发散的问题。针对该问题,提出了一种交互式多模型容积粒子滤波算法。使用交互式多模型算法来对临近空间高超声速目标进行跟踪,使用容积粒子滤波算法对目标进行滤波预测。仿真结果表明,该算法跟踪性能优于交互式多模型卡尔曼滤波算法和交互式多模型粒子滤波算法,对临近空间高超声速目标有更好的跟踪效果。     

杂波环境下机动目标跟踪算法研究

杂波环境下的机动目标跟踪问题具有非线性、非高斯、不完全观测的特点,其难点在于观测值与目标的对应关系及每一时刻的运动模式均呈现高度不确定性。文中将多模型理论和辅助粒子滤波算法相结合,提出了一种新的杂波环境下机动目标跟踪算法——多模型辅助粒子滤波算法(MMAPF)。仿真结果表明,该算法与传统的交互多模型——扩展卡尔曼滤波算法、辅助粒子滤波算法相比,在相同的情况下,具有更高的滤波精度和较好总体性能。     

基于模糊交互式多模型算法跟踪临近空间目标

由于临近空间高超声速飞行器采用非弹道式机动飞行方式,飞行速度、高度、加速度不断变化,目标机动具有长周期机动特点,而且临近空间目标飞行速度快,具有较高的升阻比,且在大气层内长时间飞行,其运动轨迹往往呈现出"跳跃"特征,给地面防御系统对其定位和跟踪带来了巨大的困难,传统的滤波算法无法给出精确的目标状态估计,跟踪性能变差。为了更好满足非机动式弹道滤波的需要,通过模糊逻辑算法与交互式多模型算法相结合,形成模糊交互式多模型算法,实现对临近空间目标飞行器跟踪,并保证了定位跟踪精度在允许范围之内。Matlab仿真结果验证了算法的有效性。     

基于PDA-UKF的杂波环境下单目标跟踪算法

提出将概率数据关联算法和不敏卡尔曼滤波相结合,用于杂波环境下的单目标跟踪。该算法同时解决了测量方程非线性情况下的滤波问题和杂波环境下的目标跟踪问题。给出了PDA-UKF算法的仿真过程,提供了一个基于距离、方位角、俯仰角的目标跟踪问题的仿真算例。理论分析与仿真结果均表明,该算法提高了滤波的稳定性和跟踪的精确性,具有较高的实用价值和广泛的应用前景。     

基于双站红外跟踪临近空间目标研究

临近空间目标飞行器的高速、高机动特性给地面防御系统对其定位和跟踪带来了巨大的困难,传统的滤波算法无法给出精确的目标状态估计,跟踪性能变差。为了更好地满足机动式弹道滤波的需要,通过双站红外跟踪方法与卡尔曼滤波算法相结合,实现对临近空间目标飞行器跟踪,并保证了定位跟踪精度在允许范围之内,Matlab仿真结果验证了算法的有效性。     

杂波环境下基于IMM-PSNF的机动目标跟踪算法

鉴于现有算法对杂波环境下的机动目标跟踪,在杂波密度较大、机动性强的情况下滤波器容易发散且算法复杂度较大的问题,提出了交互式概率最强邻算法(IMM-PSNF)。该算法以传统的机动目标跟踪算法IMM为基础,利用算法复杂度较小的概率最强邻算法(PSNF)进行滤波更新,并借助两级模型概率加权波门技术增强滤波器的稳健性。理论分析和仿真结果都表明,通过最强邻思想对量测的有效选择,IMM-PSNF无论是跟踪精度还是航迹丢失率都要优于全邻滤波器IMM-PDAF。     

非高斯背景条件下水声信号粒子滤波性能分析

基于贝叶斯滤波原理,介绍了粒子滤波(Particle Filter,PF)的基本思想和具体算法实现步骤。针对非高斯噪声对水下信号目标跟踪的影响,分别对符合高斯分布、韦伯分布和伽马分布的随机噪声序列,在噪声均值和方差相同的条件下,对比分析了扩展卡尔曼滤波(Extended Kaman Filter,EKF)算法和PF算法的估计精度。仿真结果表明,在非线性非高斯环境下EKF算法跟踪性能严重下降,而PF算法能继续保持较好的跟踪精度,证明PF算法在非线性非高斯系统中的有效性。     

临近空间目标交互式多模型跟踪定位算法研究

针对临近空间目标,进行了深入研究,根据临近空间目标状态方程的特点,分析了目标跟踪中常用的卡尔曼滤波和粒子滤波算法的优缺点,并将这2种滤波与交互式多模型算法相结合,提出了交互式多模型-卡尔曼滤波算法和交互式多模型-粒子滤波算法,并通过CV,CA和CT 3种动力学模型进行仿真分析。仿真结果表明,采用这2种算法能够满足跟踪临近空间目标的要求,具有一定的工程实用价值。     

UKF及其在目标跟踪中的应用

在高斯噪声环境下,为了解决扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)在目标跟踪应用中精度低和滤波发散的问题,将无迹卡尔曼滤波(UKF)应用于非线性系统的目标跟踪.研究了无迹卡尔曼滤波估计方法,对采样策略进行了比例修正.通过UKF在目标跟踪中的应用仿真结果表明,与EKF相比较,UKF有更好的跟踪性能、收敛快、对噪声有更强的适应能力,算法实现简单.     

基于当前统计模型的VDA机动目标跟踪算法

针对天波超视距雷达环境下的机动目标跟踪问题,提出一种基于当前统计模型的VDA机动目标跟踪算法.该算法将当前统计模型与VDA(Viterbi数据关联)算法相结合,在VDA算法框架下,利用当前模型算法对目标出现的机动进行自适应滤波,以解决目标状态估计和数据关联两方面的问题.通过目标漏跟率、虚假航迹占有率、航迹自动起始时延、输出航迹条数和航迹跟踪精度等多种跟踪性能指标,对算法进行了全方面的仿真验证.仿真结果表明,对天波超视距雷达所面临的密集杂波环境,该算法能够较好地跟踪机动目标.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.