战斗机近距格斗时航炮命中评估

针对战斗机近距格斗时航炮武器系统命中评估存在的不足,建立了包括探测雷达、火控系统和火力系统误差的评估模型,编制了相应计算程序。对航炮火力系统性能对命中概率的影响进行了计算分析,得到了通过提高航炮射速、增加航弹射击数量及增大射弹炮口初速等手段可以提高命中能力的结论。本评估方法与模型的研究,为未来战斗机各武器系统精度合理匹配提供了理论基础。     

子母弹射击精度的仿真研究

提出了子母弹命中目标的定义,研究了子母弹射击误差的组成与概率分布,建立了计算子母弹命中概率的两种仿真计算模型--直接模拟子母弹射击误差法和射击误差模拟与数值积分相结合的方法.给出了对圆形目标和矩形目标的具体计算方法,以及正态分布随机向量和均匀分布随机向量的产生方法,根据算例的结果,讨论了子弹重迭度对子母弹首发命中概率的影响.比较了两种不同仿真方法的计算结果.     

初速可控舰炮对海上目标命中概率的影响

针对新能源技术发射弹丸初速可控的新特点,研究初速对命中概率的影响。建立海上目标运动模型,利用Cramer-Rao下界理论得到目标运动要素估计误差的计算模型。根据海上目标特点,推导出弹丸外弹道方程及目标命中界计算模型,并对射击误差进行分析,得到弹丸对海上目标的命中概率模型。分析了射击误差、目标距离、弹丸射角和初速对目标命中概率的影响,结果表明对视距内海上目标存在最佳弹丸初速使命中概率达到最大。     

子母弹首发命中概率

提出了子母弹命中目标的定义,研究了子母弹射击误差的组成、母弹误差和子弹误差的概率分布,射击误差的转换及转换条件,建立了子母弹首发命中概率模型并推导出4种不同条件下子母弹首发命中概率公式,并导出了首发命中概率所满足关系。以算例分析了子母弹的母弹误差、子母的散布误差及目标幅员对子母弹首发命中概率的影响,结论为子母弹射击精度战术技术指标的分析论证及子母弹的射击法则研究提供了基础。     

舰载火箭炮命中概率计算模型*

为了在作战使用过程中合理决策，需要对舰载火箭炮射击效力进行评估，其中命中概率是衡量火箭炮射击效力的一个重要指标。针对舰载火箭炮射击特点，在分析了射击误差的基础上，建立了舰载火箭炮一发命中概率和多发命中概率计算模型。该模型具有计算速度快、精度高等优点，为舰载火箭炮对岸作战能力的计算和射击指挥决策方案的制定提供了科学依据。     

直瞄武器射击综合条件命中概率的研究

根据直瞄武器可对任意距离、任意形状目标进行射击的特性,建立了在平均弹着点与目标中心不重合时求解命中概率的数学模型,提出了以综合条件命中概率作为评价直瞄坦克对装甲目标射击的效率指标,利用心形分布函数对不同方位角上的条件命中概率加权求和计算综合条件命中概率.在实战模拟和火力运用研究方面具有良好的运用效果.     

坦克稳像火控系统射击精度分析

从射击准备和射弹散布两个方面,对坦克稳像火控系统射击误差进行了较全面地分析,提出了射击误差的计算方法,并在此基础上对坦克使用稳像火控系统射击时的首发命中概率进行了计算     

某型坦克对钢筋混凝土工事的射击效能分析

依据弹丸侵彻深度、毁伤概率、命中概率数学模型 ,结合敌海岸防御工事的特点 ,分析了某型坦克炮各种弹种的射击效能 ,计算了坦克在海上射击时对各种目标和工事的命中概率和毁伤概率 ,作出了在不同射击距离上选择不同弹种进行射击的结论。     

CUDA全方位鱼雷直航射击概率图的实时计算

直航射击是经典的鱼雷攻击方式,射击命中概率分布图是指挥员进行鱼雷攻击的重要决策依据,在考虑各观测量误差的情形下,给出了计算直航鱼雷射击命中概率的解析公式,并将该公式移植到CUDA中并行计算完成,得到了全方位实时鱼雷直航射击概率图,为指挥员现场战术决策提供重要依据.     

炮射导弹命中概率分析

坦克安装激光驾束炮射导弹武器系统后,可以明显提高远距离攻击装甲目标的能力,但在各种不同射击方式下,对不同距离目标射击时的命中概率如何,在实装上难以进行全面试验和评估。通过对影响炮射导弹命中概率的各种系统偏差和随机误差进行分析,计算出坦克在原地和行进间对不动和运动目标、从500m~4 000m距离射击时的首发命中概率数值,并对计算结果进行了分析。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.