Reconsidering a Naval Blockade of China: A Response to Mirski

Sean Mirski's assessment of a naval blockade is an important contribution to the debate over how the United States should respond to China's growing military power. Nevertheless, it has three limitations. First, although distant and close-in blockades could be employed in tandem, analyzing them separately helps to explain when they might be used and how they could influence escalation. Second, while conventional countervalue and counterforce options could also be employed together, this would depend on the degree to which they overlapped and the order in which they were implemented. Third, a blockade could lead to unanticipated prewar, intra-war, and postwar challenges.     

The Republic of Korea and Its Navy: Perceptions of Security and the Utility of Seapower

Abstract

Understanding the development of Republic of Korea (ROK) seapower is central in exploring the evolution and nature of its security consciousness. This article aims to examine how the wider East Asian maritime sphere has influenced ROK perceptions of its own security and how such perceptions have come into conflict with the needs of maintaining its deterrent capabilities within the peninsular context. In doing so it concludes that for the ROK seapower has been an expression of wider engagement and international developing security concerns but that it is curtailed and influenced by the realities of the threat from the North.     

美国海上力量的变化与发展

本文结合美海军1991～1997财政年度造舰计划叙述和分析了美海军海上力量今后的变化和发展,着重分析了航空母舰、驱逐舰、潜艇等几种主要战斗舰艇在2000年左右可能达到的数量。     

Does Military Spending Really Matter for Economic Growth in China and G7 Countries: The Roles of Dependency and Heterogeneity

This study revisits the causal linkages between military spending and economic growth in China and G7 countries (i.e. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the USA) by focusing country-specific analysis for the period 1988–2010. The panel causality analysis, which accounts for both cross-country dependency and heterogeneity across countries, is employed in this study. Our results find evidence of the neutrality hypothesis for Italy, France, and Germany, the military spending–growth detriment hypothesis for both Canada and the UK, and one-way Granger causality running from economic growth to military spending for China. Furthermore, we find a feedback between military spending and economic growth in both Japan and the USA. Thus, our results do not support that one size fits all.     

The nexus between military expenditures and economic growth in the BRICS and the US: an empirical note

This empirical note re-examines the causal linkages between military expenditures and economic growth for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and that for the USA during the period 1988–2012. Results of Granger causality tests show that military expenditures influence economic growth in the USA, economic growth influences military expenditures in both Brazil and India, a feedback between military expenditures and economic growth in Russia, and no causal relation exists between military expenditures and economic growth in China and South Africa. The findings of this study can provide important policy implications for the BRICS countries and also for the USA.     

The interrelationship between defence spending,public expenditures and economic growth: evidence from China

This study examines the relationship between defence spending, other components of public spending and economic growth for the 1952–2012 period in China using Granger causality tests and generalised impulse response functions based on vector error correction models. The empirical results reveal two long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables and also show that defence spending inversely and unidirectionally Granger impacts economic growth. Furthermore, empirical findings point to a trade-off relationship between defence spending and public expenditures in China. From a policy maker’s perspective, the findings reported herein imply that a decrease in defence spending may stimulate economic growth.     

Insurgency by the numbers I: A reconsideration of the ecology of communist success in jiangxi province,China

Theorizing about Taliban operations in Afghanistan has its limits and it is possible that Kabul-centric strategies do not adequately address the unique circumstances of each region in the country. How exactly has the Taliban gone about attaining its objectives in Kandahar province and how have those approaches evolved since 2002? And how have the Taliban adapted to coalition forces' attempts to compete with the insurgency and stamp it out? The answers to these questions are critical in the formulation of any counterinsurgency approach to Afghanistan.     

中国的崛起推动了和谐世界的构建

“和谐世界”的理念和主张使中国崛起更具有理论的穿透力和现实的针对性：和谐世界是持久和平、稳定安宁的世界,中国崛起有助于实现世界共同安全与和平;和谐世界是一个“人人都能吃饱饭”的世界,中国崛起有助于实现世界共同繁荣;和谐世界是一个互利共赢的世界,中国崛起有助于促进世界共同发展。     

中美灾害应急救援指挥体系探析

近年来中国特大事故不断发生,应急救援不力是中国安全生产事故后果严重的主要原因之一。美国是世界上应急处理经验十分丰富的国家,借鉴美国应急管理机构的管理经验,建立适应中国国情的、行之有效的国家安全生产应急救援指挥体系已迫在眉睫。     

新中国道德建设的基本经验及发展走向

新中国道德建设的基本经验主要是：形成了社会主义道德体系,坚持社会主义核心价值体系主导地位;明确了“相适应”、“相协调”、“相承接”三者统一的目标任务,坚定中国特色社会主义方向;坚持了先进性与广泛性相结合的实践要求,发挥先进典型示范引导作用,等。在新的历史时期,我们要力戒道德建设的“无我化”、“空洞化”和“泛政治化”,抵制“非道德主义”和“道德相对主义”的泛滥与风行。新中国道德建设的发展走向是：要在社会主义核心价值体系中,大力践行社会主义荣辱观;在“四观”中凸显道德观教育;在“四真”上下工夫塑造道德主体。     

新疆公安边防维稳预警情报收集中的问题与对策

新疆维稳形势严峻,预警是维护社会稳定的重要途径。情报收集是成功预警的前提和基础。当前的新疆维稳预警情报收集工作还存在收集主体素质不高,群众优势未能充分发挥,缺乏有效交流与合作等问题。为此。必须加强情报队伍建设,构筑人民防线,完善协作机制,加强情报交流,以改进情报收集工作。     

Staying Power and the American Future: Problems of Primacy,Policy, and Grand Strategy

Many scholars, strategists and pundits contend that the US is in decline. They argue that America's national capabilities are significantly eroding, and that with the rise of important regional powers, its primacy in world affairs is rapidly diminishing as well. Yet America continues to possess significant advantages in critical sectors such as economic size, technology, competitiveness, demography, force size, power projection, military technology, and in the societal capacity to innovate and adapt. This article argues that the nature of material problems has been overstated, and that the US should be able to withstand modest erosion in its relative strength for some time to come without losing its predominant status. Instead, where limits to American primacy do exist, they are as or more likely to be ideational as they are material. The problem inheres as much or more in elite and societal beliefs, policy choices, and political will, as in economic, technological or manpower limitations at home, or the rise of peer competitors abroad.     

品牌联合:论西部高校品牌价值提升的途径及策略

该文以品牌联合为视角,分析了西部高校实施大学品牌战略过程中品牌联合的形式和影响因素,并提出了西部高校实施品牌联合的策略     

The effect of al particle size on thermal decomposition,mechanical strength and sensitivity of Al/ZrH2/PTFE composite

To study the thermal decomposition of Al/ZrH2/PTFE with different Al particle size as well as mechanical strength and impact sensitivity under medium and low strain rates, molding-vacuum sintering was adopted to prepare four groups of power materials and cylindrical specimens with different Al particle size. The active decomposition temperature of ZrH2 was obtained by TG-DSC, and the quasi-static me-chanics/reaction characteristics as well as the impact sensitivity of the specimen were studied respec-tively by quasi-static compression and drop-hammer test. The results show that the yield strength of the material decreased with the increase of the Al particle size, while the compressive strength, failure strain and toughness increased first and then decreased, which reached the maximum values of 116.61 MPa, 191％, and 119.9 MJ/m respectively when the Al particle size is 12—14μm because of particle size grading. The specimens with the highest strength and toughness formed circumferential open cracks and reacted partly when pressed. Those with developmental cracks formed inside did not react. It is considered that fracture of specimens first triggered initial reaction between Al and PTFE to release an amount of heat. Then ZrH2 was activated and decomposed, and participated in subsequent reaction to generate ZrC. The impact sensitivity of the specimens decreased with the increase of Al particle size.     

Between Man and Nature: The Enduring Wisdom of Sir Halford J. Mackinder

This article argues for the continued relevance of the work and theories of the British Geostrategist Sir Halford J. Mackinder (1861-1947). It asserts that commentators and scholars who seek to marginalise Mackinder have too often dismissed his theories without setting them in the context of their continued endorsement in crucial areas of the globe. After 1945, despite his theories being tainted by association with Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, both Moscow and Washington recognised the utility of Mackinder’s work and tailored policy accordingly. The end of Cold War saw Mackinder fall out of favour as his model was deemed unsuitable for policy analysis by a number of influential thinkers. It is argued here that, in recent years, the arena of international politics has seen a rehabilitation of Mackinder, accompanied by a resurgence of interest in Geopolitics. Finally, the piece examines those areas of the contemporary globe where Mackinder’s influence is greatest.     

The Trump effect downunder: U.S. allies,Australian strategic culture,and the politics of path dependence

Donald Trump’s election precipitated a debate in Australia about the value of retaining close alliance ties with the United States. Similar dynamics are discernible in other U.S. allies as the negative impact of Trump administration policies becomes clearer. Yet despite this “Trump effect,” we argue Australia is unlikely to distance itself from the United States because at the core of Australia’s strategic culture is a very positive “cultural orientation” toward the United States that is highly institutionalized in treaties, formal bilateral ties, Track 2 diplomacy, and public opinion. Such institutionalized ties have powerful path dependent effects. Accordingly, we conclude that the Trump effect does not constitute a powerful enough “exogenous shock” to move Australia off its well-worn grand-strategic path. But this alliance relationship is marked by both high cultural affinity and high institutionalization: American policy-makers should seriously consider whether other U.S. allies can tolerate similar levels of “stress.”