弹道导弹打击航空母舰末制导有效区的确定与评估

在地地弹道式导弹与航空母舰攻防对抗中,需要研究航母是否在导弹进攻的有效区内。针对具有末制导的弹道式导弹具有再入机动变轨特性,建立了导弹再入机动飞行模型,提出了导弹在不同的再入条件下,对其飞行弹道及机动能力进行仿真计算的方法,通过仿真确定出了导弹打击航空母舰的有效区域。在此基础上,探讨了导弹在以不同的再入姿态、不同的再入飞行高度实施末制导时,导弹落点的有效区域、边界外形及有效区的变化范围。从所得结果来看,所建模型及仿真方法正确可行,在一定程度上解决了弹道导弹打击航空母舰战斗群作战保障急需解决的一些问题。     

INS/GPS组合制导修正主动段自旋误差研究

弹道导弹主动段自旋可以对抗激光武器拦截,实现主动段突防.但是主动段自旋又会引起较大的速度位置偏差,进而造成较大的落点偏差.提出了一种通过自由段组合制导修正落点偏差的方案.首先建立了主动段自旋弹道模型,分析了主动段自旋引起的速度位置误差及最终的落点偏差,然后在自由段采用INS/GPS组合制导,应用卡尔曼滤波对数据进行处理.仿真表明,该方法可以明显提高导弹的命中精度.     

探月飞船跳跃式再入组合制导方法

针对预测-校正制导方法计算量大的问题,提出一种结合预测-校正法和标准轨道法的组合制导方法。在一次再入段采用预测-校正法提高制导方法的鲁棒性能,在二次再入段采用标准轨道法减少计算量。该组合制导方法通过利用标准轨道信息,减少了预测时间;通过设计指令快速迭代算法,减少了迭代次数;并根据飞船二次再入点处的实际状态,修正标准指令剖面,提高二次再入制导性能。仿真结果表明:该组合制导方法能大幅减少预测时间,提高校正速度,并具有较高的鲁棒性和精度。     

一种连续修正速度方向的导引方法

考虑制导炮弹由身管武器发射，其飞行控制能力和导引信息量有限，基于预测落点位置偏差量来修正速度方向并在控制时间内连续分配导引指令的思想，提出了一种新的三维末制导方法。根据非线性弹道方程组的级数解预测弹丸落点位置，得到落点与目标的偏差，并提出了两种通过此偏差解算当前速度方向修正量的方法。取剩余飞行时间为修正时间，通过将速度方向修正量分配到整个剩余导引段建立了加速度修正公式，以减小导引指令饱和的可能性。通过连续地预测落点和分配加速度指令来实时地导引飞行。仿真结果表明：该导引方法简单可行，精度高，对控制能力要求较低，且具备较好的制导效果和毁伤效果，为该体制制导炮弹的应用提供参考依据。     

探月飞船初次再入段纵程的解析预测方法

探月飞船升阻比较低,为实现长纵程飞行,必须采用跳跃式再入方式。在跳跃式再入轨迹在线规划或预测制导中,如何快速准确地预测初次再入段纵程是一个非常关键的问题。针对这一问题,研究提出一种解析预测方法:利用匹配渐进展开方法得到再入纵向运动方程的闭型近似解;将初次再入段轨迹分为三段,第一段采用高度作为积分自变量,并利用复合梯形公式得到纵程,第二段和第三段分别采用二次多项式来拟合阻力加速度-能量剖面,根据近似解结果反解出多项式系数,并将得到的阻力加速度倒数-能量函数进行积分,得到第二段和第三段的纵程;对解析预测方法的精度和计算效率进行分析,结果表明该方法计算精度较高,速度快,可用于跳跃式再入轨迹的在线规划和制导。     

弹道导弹弹头再入参数的解析解研究

针对弹头再入运动的特点,建立了旋转圆球地球模型下弹道导弹弹头再入运动的简化方程,通过将大气密度、地球引力和弹道倾角分层计算,同时结合气动阻力系数的两种解析计算模型,推导出了计算弹头再入参数的解析解。仿真计算结果表明,解析解非常接近数值解,能够较真实的反映弹头再入运动的客观情况。     

控制速度方向的弹道修正导引方法

由于制导炮弹由身管武器发射,其飞行控制能力和导引信息量有限,故基于预测落点位置偏差量来修正速度方向并在控制时间内连续分配导引指令的思想提出一种新的三维末制导方法。根据非线性弹道方程组的级数解预测弹丸落点位置,得到落点与目标的偏差,并提出两种通过此偏差解算当前速度方向修正量的方法。取剩余飞行时间为修正时间,通过将速度方向修正量分配到整个剩余导引段建立加速度修正公式,从而减小导引指令饱和的可能性。通过连续地预测落点和分配加速度指令来实时地导引飞行。仿真结果表明:该导引方法简单可行,精度高,对控制能力要求较低,且具备较好的制导效果和毁伤效果,可为该体制制导炮弹的应用提供参考依据。     

环境参数在线辨识及其在滑翔段制导中的应用

针对助推滑翔导弹,提出基于飞行环境参数在线辨识的滑翔段数值预测校正制导方法。综合考虑大气密度和气动系数对导弹运动的影响,引入滑翔段综合环境参数,利用扩展Kalman滤波方法对综合参数进行在线辨识。基于在线辨识结果,利用渐消记忆递推最小二乘方法在线建立环境参数预测模型,并利用最新辨识结果进行模型的在线修正。设计了纵向和横向制导律,并基于环境参数在线预测模型进行落点预测,以克服飞行环境扰动对落点预测精度的影响。进行了大气密度非定常扰动下的制导仿真,以及密度和气动参数随机扰动下的Monte Carlo仿真。仿真结果表明:环境参数在线预测模型能准确预报飞行环境参数,制导方法对飞行环境扰动具有较强的鲁棒性。     

基于惯导和雷达导引头的再入复合末制导方法研究

对基于惯导系统和雷达导引头的再入复合末制导方法进行了探讨研究。提出了通过利用雷达导引头测量信息 ,估计并修正惯导系统给出的战术弹道导弹再入飞行状态参数偏差 ,然后按其具有终端位置和角度约束的制导律实时进行导引控制的再入复合末制导方法。并通过数学仿真分析验证了方法的可行性。     

地球旋转对弹道性能影响分析

在弹道导弹攻防对抗仿真研究中,弹道导弹作为攻击方,其弹道的精确性对导弹攻防对抗仿真的最终结果有着重要的影响。地球旋转是影响弹道导弹弹道精度的重要因素,通过运用简化公式对地球旋转对弹道导弹精度的影响进行了计算。研究表明,对射程大于500 km的弹道导弹在预测弹道及落点时应考虑地球旋转的影响,否则将会带来较大的误差。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.