GEO对潜地弹道导弹探测能力与突防策略研究北大核心

天基红外系统(SBIRS)是美国部署的新型天基红外预警系统,分析了该系统中GEO的覆盖范围及探测能力,研究了卫星观测角和大气透过率2个主要因素对卫星探测能力的影响,计算了GEO覆盖下不同大气透过率对潜地弹道导弹探测能力的影响,并对GEO及其星座的探测能力进行了分析,提出了潜地弹道导弹变时域和变海域发射的突防策略。     

GEO对潜地弹道导弹探测能力与突防策略研究

天基红外系统(SBIRS)是美国部署的新型天基红外预警系统,分析了该系统中GEO的覆盖范围及探测能力,研究了卫星观测角和大气透过率2个主要因素对卫星探测能力的影响,计算了GEO覆盖下不同大气透过率对潜地弹道导弹探测能力的影响,并对GEO及其星座的探测能力进行了分析,提出了潜地弹道导弹变时域和变海域发射的突防策略。     

新概念武器对战略导弹突防能力的影响研究

积极发展新概念武器 ,推进实战化进程 ,是打破空间不对称战略的有效途径。本文分析了新概念武器的反卫星能力 ;建立了新概念武器对战略导弹突防能力支持的计算模型 ;最后就新概念武器对战略导弹突防能力评估的应用结果进行了分析。     

天基红外预警卫星系统及其探测能力分析

天基预警卫星系统是防御系统的重要部分,对其发展现状和探测能力的研究具有重要意义.主要针对美国NMD系统中的天基红外预警卫星系统,介绍了天基红外预警卫星系统的发展现状、系统组成及其工作过程.根据已知的卫星本身及星载探测器的性能参数,利用STK软件建立了天基红外预警卫星系统的仿真模型,并根据仿真结果分析了天基红外预警卫星系统对目标的探测能力.     

对抗条件下舰舰导弹的突防概率分析

在舰舰导弹对单舰防御突防概率的基础上,研究了舰艇编队采用各种手段对抗来袭导弹条件下,舰舰导弹的突防问题,并推导出突防概率的计算公式,利用此公式计算了突防概率随舰舰导弹齐射数量的变化情况。与在单舰防御条件下舰舰导弹的突防概率模型相比,此模型更加准确。     

伴飞诱饵支援对反舰导弹突防舰空导弹的影响

针对舰空导弹,基于排队论的突防概率模型,计算了伴飞诱饵支援条件下,反舰导弹的突防概率和效费比;利用火力对抗条件下反舰导弹--舰空导弹Lanchester方程,分析了伴飞诱饵对作战时效性的影响.在此基础上,研究了基于突防效果的伴飞诱饵支援条件下反舰导弹对舰空导弹的突防概率与突防期望数,分析了饱和攻击条件下,伴飞诱饵对反舰...     

战略导弹突防仿真模型

本文提出了战略导弹突防仿真模型 ,在此基础上建立了导弹突防模拟系统并在微机上实现运行。该系统可为战略导弹作战提供决策支持 ,也可为研究导弹突防提供实验手段。运用所建立的仿真模型 ,本文进行了模拟运行 ,得到了一些有益的结果。对改变模型参数结果将怎样变化 ,也作了探索     

天基再入飞行器作战效能综合评估

通过天基再入飞行器(SRV)作战效能综合评估,定性和定量分析得出影响SRV作战效能的主要因素,为SRV总体设计提供参考和建议.在对SRV任务威胁和SRV与防御系统攻防对抗分析基础上,针对SRV自身特性,建立了SRV作战效能指标体系,应用作战效能多指标综合评估法建立了综合评估模型;根据SRV作战效能指标体系,依次建立了SRV任务可靠度模型、反应能力模型、机动能力指标模型,重点建立了突防能力、命中能力和毁伤能力指标的模型,进行了效能评估结果计算.最后对影响SRV作战效能的关键因素进行了分析,结果表明:缩减SRV的雷达反射截面积(RCS)有助于提高突防概率和增加作战效能;增大SRV速度则可以降低防御系统的拦截次数和拦截命中概率,从而提高其作战效能;提高SRV对目标的打击精度将提高其命中概率和作战效能.     

基于建模与仿真的多诱饵空域设计研究

对弹道导弹中段红外诱饵突防过程进行了分析,并利用建模与仿真方法对多诱饵空域设计方法进行了研究,该方法基于弹头与诱饵的运动学模型、导引头识别模型、突防效果评价模型,通过搜索法和模拟退火算法分析不同空域构型下的诱饵目标群突防效果,最后对特定条件下诱饵空域构型突防效果进行了仿真计算,试验结果表明,该方法具有科学性和工程应用价值。     

临近空间高超声速目标天基红外探测技术研究

目前试飞成功的临近空间高超声速飞行器已经成为潜在威胁,对临近空间高超声速目标的预警探测成为了新的研究方向。分析了临近空间高超声速飞行器的目标特性,以美国天基红外系统为参考对象,利用STK(satellite tool kit)软件和灵敏度估算,分析了天基红外系统对临近空间目标探测的适用性,提出了天基红外系统对临近空间高超声速飞行器预警探测需要关注和解决的问题。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.