模糊规则推理在某型导弹故障智能诊断中的应用

针对某新型导弹武器装备尚未形成全面技术保障能力的现状,构建出基于模糊规则推理(模糊矩阵算法和规则推理)的导弹故障智能诊断平台,降低了故障诊断中的误判和漏判,充分发挥了该型导弹装备的效能.该故障诊断系统的诊断方法具有一般性,可推广应用到其他装备的故障诊断系统.     

某装备吊机液压故障诊断专家系统设计

装备液压系统快速故障诊断是维修保障人员亟待解决的难题.以某装备吊机液压系统故障诊断为研究对象,梳理历年故障案例库,运用故障树解析故障原因、逻辑及耦合关系,明确故障产生的全部最小割集.将故障树与专家系统有机结合,依据故障规则构建基于故障树的专家知识库,选用自上而下正向查找方式的推理机制,融合概念图知识匹配模式,设计模糊含权概念图的投影匹配算法.在VB环境下实现专家系统软件功能,使系统具备知识库持续升级、用户故障定位查询、故障排除指导、历史故障记录、诊断报告生成等功能,有效指导维修保障人员进行装备液压系统的故障诊断与排除,并可推广至其他型号、类型的装备液压系统故障诊断中.     

随动系统模拟电路模块化故障诊断研究

针对人工神经网络在对装备电路进行故障诊断时出现的网络结构庞大，而影响网络诊断速度的问题，提出了模块化诊断思想。首先根据电路的功能特点以及系统电路分割的原则，将装备电路分割成具有独立功能的模块及子模块，然后建立起混联、串联2种模型，分别对其提出逻辑思想、模糊信息融合的诊断方法，从而将电路故障快速、有效地定位在模块级别，如需进一步诊断元器件故障，只需对故障子模块建立规模较小的诊断网络，从而有效避免诊断大规模电路时诊断网络结构庞大的问题。     

模糊Petri网在故障诊断知识表示和推理中的应用

针对传统的模糊产生式规则知识表示复杂、推理效率低、单一阈值设定不能满足复杂故障诊断需求的问题,给出了模糊产生式规则转换为模糊Petri网的一般方法和故障诊断模型,以及基于双阈值设定的两级故障诊断推理算法,并将其应用于某型柴油机遥控系统故障诊断之中。通过设置双阈值提高了故障诊断的推理速度和推理效率,同时又能对系统的准故障状态进行检测,及时发现潜在故障,排除故障隐患。     

基于警用特种装备的智能故障诊断专家系统的设计与实现

智能故障诊断专家系统可用以实现对警用特种装备系统各子系统的状态监测和故障诊断，基于此功能阐述了警用特种装备智能故障诊断专家系统的设计原理，给出了系统的实现方法。通过自适应遗传算法的知识获取机制，介绍了其改进的自适应遗传算法原理，解决了知识获取的问题，实现了警用特种装备的状态监测和智能故障诊断。     

组合网络与证据理论相结合的电路故障诊断

针对神经网络中两种常用的网络类型BP和Elman,在模拟电路故障诊断中的应用过程的特点——各自网络都有自身缺陷,提出基于BP-Elman神经网络与证据理论相结合的故障诊断方法.首先BP-Elman网络得出其各自的初步诊断结果,经过必要的转换将其转换成证据理论的概率赋值,作为证据组合的依据;证据理论组合规则将初步诊断结果融合得出决策级诊断结果.通过对某装备位置调节器板的故障诊断过程表明,该模型经过尽可能融合有效故障信息,大大提高了系统的诊断精度和诊断正确率,而且有效降低了系统不确定性.     

基于小波变换与SVM的复杂装备故障诊断研究

针对复杂装备故障信号提取困难、故障诊断精度低的现状,根据小波变换对处理非平稳信号的优越性和支持向量机(SVM)对模式分类的良好性能,提出了一种基于小波变换与SVM的故障诊断模型,并选取配电系统进行故障诊断仿真实验。结果表明该模型能利用少量训练样本完成故障诊断,有效提高装备故障诊断精度。     

一种火控系统故障诊断专家系统

本文提到用于火炮故障诊断的专家系统,文中重点说明在火炮中故障率较高的火控系统发生故障时,用什么策略将故障疑点逐步孤立至故障源所在的插件板或不可分离的组合体。同时还介绍了怎样用专家系统实现故障探测。本文介绍用第二代专家系统实现故障诊断型的系统建造有一定普遍性.     

油料装备智能维修决策系统研究

在分析油料装备维修管理特点的基础上，提出油料装备智能维修决策系统体系结构，论述模型库与知识库的构建方法，描述维修推理机工作原理。针对油料装备故障诊断信息具有模糊性的特点，建立油料装备故障智能模糊诊断模型，论述故障诊断模糊规则、模糊推理步骤、模糊算子定义及其推理方式。对维修策略决策的主要影响因素进行分析，以使油料装备稳定性及经济性、维修周期达到最佳为维修策略目标，构建油料装备维修策略模型，论述维修策略原则和模型工作流程。油料装备智能维修决策系统的研究，对提高油料装备维修科学化和智能化水平，加强油料装备保障力度具有重要意义。     

混合推理在某型雷达故障诊断中的应用

传统诊断方法各有优缺点,对于大型装备的故障诊断来说,由于故障的复杂性、故障信息的多样性,单一的诊断方法满足不了实际应用的要求。为此,在介绍基于案例、模型、神经网络专家系统诊断推理方法的基础上,论述了基于案例、模型和神经网络的混合推理策略,给出了建立混合推理系统的方法,并在某型雷达的故障诊断系统中得到了应用。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.