Explaining the impact of militancy on Iran–Pakistan relations

ABSTRACT

Sectarian militants have for years launched attacks from Pakistan across the border to Iran. Finding sanctuary in a neighbouring country can make the difference between success and failure for militants. Conventional wisdom holds that a lasting transnational militancy challenge would typically create serious interstate conflict. Militancy has triggered armed encounters between Iran and Pakistan. This article argues that despite some tension militancy has resulted in deeper cooperation in the ambivalent dyad. Both states’ overarching security concerns, having exhausted other options, the believed involvement of third-party states, and economic potential, have moderately alleviated negative pressure caused by militancy.     

On the brink: The resurgence of militant Islam in Central Asia

Since Operation Enduring Freedom, Central Asian militants, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, have fled to Pakistan from their previous strongholds in Afghanistan. However, many militants have begun returning to Central Asia. Thus questions are raised as to what extent militancy has the potential to thrive with the pending North Atlantic Treaty Organization withdrawal from Afghanistan set for 2014? Is militancy a legitimate security threat to Central Asia? What strategies might militants implement? Thus, this article examines the current state of militancy, analyzes militant trends, introduces Afghanistan and Pakistan into the Central Asian equation, and determines the militants' capability and overall strategy. The article concludes that militant Islam, regardless of its current numbers, remains a viable threat to regional security, Afghanistan will be an essential factor for the future of Central Asian militancy, and the form this re-emergence will take becomes apparent.     

Beyond the Double Game: Lessons from Pakistan’s Approach to Islamist Militancy

States commonly take one of three approaches to militant groups on their soil: collaboration; benign neglect; or belligerence. All three approaches are present in Pakistan, where some groups also move back and forth among these categories. I employ the term “coopetition” to capture this fluidity. The dynamic nature of militancy in Pakistan makes the country an excellent laboratory for exploring a state’s assessment of the utility an Islamist militant group offers, and the threat it poses relative to other threats informs the state’s treatment of that group. In this article, I put forward a typology that situates Islamist militants in Pakistan in one of the above four categories. I also illustrate how a group’s identity, objectives, and alliances inform assessments of its utility and threat relative to other threats. In addition to enhancing our understanding of militant–state dynamics, this taxonomy builds on and helps to unify earlier typologies of Pakistani militancy.     

Insights from a Database of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen Militants

This article uses a novel database of 1,625 posthumously published biographies of members of two Islamist militant organizations (Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM)), all of whom were killed in the course of carrying out militant attacks. In general, each biography provides data on the militant’s birthplace, education, recruitment, and training. The number of observations in this database is a full order of magnitude larger than those of previous databases assembled from militant biographies. While the sample of militants in this database is the product of multiple selection effects, analysis of the database undermines many common myths about Pakistani militants and casts doubt on current policy approaches to mitigating Islamist militancy in Pakistan.     

Herdsmen militancy and humanitarian crisis in Nigeria: A theoretical briefing

This article explores the phenomenon of herdsmen militancy as a new trajectory for the farmer–herder crisis in Nigeria, with reference to its humanitarian implications. Relying on a systematic analysis of secondary data and aligning with the analytical anchorage of liberal political ecology theory, the article posits that herdsmen militancy depicts a contradiction in agrarian relations in the context of a national security crisis which has been complicated by salient socio-ecological factors such as climate change, armed violence, and identity politics. In view of the dire humanitarian consequences of this situation, the article submits that herdsmen militancy constitutes a major threat to human and national security in Nigeria. It makes a case for a pragmatic policy capable of mitigating the myriad socio-ecological factors that tend to trigger herdsmen militancy, with prohibition on open grazing in critical hotbeds of herder–farmer conflict as a strategic measure.     

Foliage and violence: Interrogating forests as a security threat in Nigeria

The discourse on security challenges in Nigeria has generated much scholarly insight. What is yet to be sufficiently interrogated is the place of forests in the problem. Situating the problem within the context of global occurrences, the study explores security threats posed by the poor management of some Nigerian forests, which has resulted in invasion and exploitation by criminals who engage in militancy, kidnapping, ritual killing, armed robbery, cattle rustling and cannabis cultivation. Using the theory of ungoverned spaces as a foundation, the study locates the major reason for the invasion and use of forested landscape for criminal activities in the Nigerian state, the presence of the authorities in these sanctuaries is either non-existent or, at best, sporadic.     

The Dark Side of Extended Deterrence: Thinking through the State Sponsorship of Terrorism

States employ extended deterrence to shield third parties from aggression. The concept is traditionally applied to interstate relations, collective security arrangements, and strategic considerations. The protective relationship that exists between a state sponsor of terrorism and its non-state militant proxy is rarely considered. This article will introduce and explore the sponsor–proxy relationship in the context of extended deterrence, and relate it to Iran’s support and sponsorship of political violence, militancy, and terrorism in Europe. The article reviews the rationale states have for sponsoring terrorism, and illustrates the promises and pitfalls associated with extending deterrence to non-state militants.     

Insurgency and Violent Extremism in Pakistan

Pakistan has an uneven history of dealing with insurgencies and extremism. This article identifies the various campaigns and policies employed to defeat militants and deal with violent extremism. It describes the major anti-state groups and how Pakistan’s military and civilian leaders, relying on the related strategies of selectivity, gradualism and containment, have allowed militancy and terrorism to thrive. This article finds that while the elites and the public may have belatedly come to appreciate the existential internal threats these groups pose to the country, there are strong reasons to doubt the state’s full commitment to its promises to take meaningful action.     

武警院校特色学报建设的困境与解决方略

特色学报建设是武警院校在建设现代化武警中培养高素质学术人才的必然选择。在特色办刊理念指导下,找准特色学报方向,构建特色学报梯队,开设特色栏目,培育特色学术人才,是武警院校特色学报建设的主要内容和途径。在追求武警院校人才建设,着力为建设现代化武警服务的同时,又注重追求学报建设的内在价值,发挥特色学报栏目建设的整体功能,是提升武警学术研究核心竞争力和办刊水平的基本路向。     

About the contributors

From the beginning of history, war has been an almost exclusively male affair and those who took part in it were often extolled as the most manliest of men. The recent feminization of the armed forces of many developed countries does not prove that women's liberation is making progress, as most people believe. Rather, it is part symptom, part cause, of the decline of those forces. Other things being equal, the fewer and less important the wars fought by any armed force the more women it has; the more women it has, the less likely it is to undertake serious wars.     

谈边防部队院校教员心理素质培养的途径和方法

对公安边防部队院校教员心理素质的培养问题进行研究与探讨有着极其重要的现实意义。运用马克思主义关于人的全面发展学说和现代教育学、心理学理论，根据公安边防部队的性质和任务，对教员心理素质的内涵及培养的主要途径和方法作了全面系统的论述。     

China’s Search for a ‘Strategic Air Force’

Once dismissed by many outside observers, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has undergone an impressive transformation over the past two decades, emerging as one of the world’s premier air forces. As it continues to modernize, it is focused on becoming a ‘strategic air force.’ PLAAF strategists suggest this means it should play a decisive role in protecting Chinese national interests, field modern capabilities commensurate with China’s standing as a major power, and enjoy the institutional status befitting its role as a ‘strategic service,’ an important consideration given the historical dominance of the ground force in China’s military.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.     

Joint Publication 3-07.15 Tactics,Techniques and Procedures for Advising Foreign Forces and the American Mission

US Army Major Paul Marks discusses the history of American advisory efforts during the Cold War and recommends that the concept and the use of advisors be revived as a tool of contemporary American foreign policy. The failure of American advisors to turn the South Vietnamese armed force into a viable entity and the lack of public knowledge about the success of advisors in El Salvador in the 1980s contribute to a bias against advisors in the public, the government, and the military. The article argues that in today's evolving security environment where the large scale commitment of US troops is neither feasible nor necessary, US national interests can still be advanced through the judicious use of advisors. The article proposes a Joint publication as the doctrinal basis for the employment of advisors.     

论“空海一体战”与中国国家安全

“空海一体战”是美国的一种新型作战理论,是在20世纪80年代“空地一体战”等诸多战法及兵种妥协基础上形成的一种新型军事战略,旨在通过空海军力量的配合,进行近域作战,以抵消对手的反进入/区域拒止能力,取得战争的主动权与控制权.“空海一体战”作为美国战略重心东移的重要角力点与支撑要素,在美国亚太战略中的作用举足轻重,对亚太周边国家尤其是中国的国家安全构成重大威胁,为此有必要对其理论渊源、发展目标、策略行动及障碍缺陷进行剖析与解构,为中国维护国家安全,构建良好的国家安全环境提供战略储备与智力支持.     

The Kashmir insurgency: As bad as it gets

In January 2000, the Kashmir militancy is gaining ground and Indian forces are on the defensive. This is despite a decline in militancy from 1996 to mid‐1999. While India has managed to secure greater international support from the West, the failure of an elected state government in Kashmir to regain the confidence of Kashmiris has cost Delhi support. The militant revival is being driven by increasing professionalism, along with strong support from backers in Pakistan. Given there is now a 12‐year period of violence to analyse, new literature brings interesting insights.¹     

Similar Strategies,Dissimilar Outcomes: an Appraisal of the Efficacy of Turkey's Coercive Diplomacy with Syria and in Northern Iraq

Several countries have used coercive diplomacy to dissuade sponsor-states from supporting non-state armed groups. This study argues that when a sponsor-state and a non-state armed group's common identity creates common aspirations and motives, coercive diplomacy towards the sponsor-state is unlikely to succeed in the long-term. To assess its efficacy, this research examines Turkey's strategy towards Syria in 1998 and in northern Iraq from 2007 onwards. Under the abovementioned conditions, it concludes that there has been no conclusive evidence for Turkey's assumption that its approach would succeed; therefore, it should utilise alternative strategies to coercive diplomacy.     

Risk,War, and the Dangers of Soldier Identity

The profession of arms is distinct from other professions for many reasons. One reason which is not so obvious is that, unlike members of other professions, soldiers may go their entire careers preparing for a day that never arrives. All things considered, we should think this to be a very good thing. For soldiers, however, this can feel somewhat odd, since there is a natural desire to want to feel useful and to see one’s role and purpose find realization. Accordingly, the common soldier is forced to adopt a rather paradoxical mindset, one of longing for peace, and therefore for uselessness, while at the same time longing to be useful, which would entail that there be a war. This latter desire to be useful and to vindicate one’s identity as a soldier can sometimes take on an unhealthy life of its own. The pull of wanting too strongly to live up to a warrior identity, I argue, can sometimes skew a soldier’s ability to assess risk rationally. This article will therefore investigate how a soldier’s concept of self influences his or her overall capacity to evaluate risk in war and when such influence might become morally problematic.     

《突发事件应对法》第14条分析——兼论国家武装力量应对突发事件的行为规范

国家武装力量依法应对突发事件应当依据《突发事件应对法》进行。但是，该法仅在第14条中对武装力量应对突发事件作了概括性的规定。本文从三个方面对《突发事件应对法》第14条进行了解读，企望比较全面地论述国家武装力量依法应对突发事件的行为规范。     

The Kashmir conflict in South Asia: voices from Srinagar

This article looks at the Kashmir conflict in South Asia, which has been going on since 1947, when India and Pakistan became independent from British colonial rule. After looking at some historical background, the article looks at both the external dimension as well as the internal dimension of the conflict. The external dimension tends to focus on Indo-Pak relations over Kashmir and the internal dimension looks at India's repressive state policies within the state of Kashmir. This article uses Mary Kaldor's “New War” thesis as a theoretical framework to understand the situation and pays special attention to the conflict's very complex and multifaceted nature. The article argues that although the levels of violence have differed from time to time in the region since 1947, today the conflict seems to have less to do with Indo-Pak relations or the external side of things and has more to do with the internal dimension and India's undemocratic ways within Kashmir. Today, Kashmir is one of the most militarised conflict zones in the world. The stationing of the Indian military and paramilitary forces in the region has only exacerbated the situation since it is the security personnel who cause much of the problem. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act gives these security forces extraordinary powers in the region, which they often abuse. The armed forces have no real understanding of the local culture or sympathy for local religious sentiments. Poverty, corruption, administrative failure, police brutality, identity politics and human rights abuses are some of the key features associated with this conflict. Methodologically, a number of interviews were carried out with the local people in the region recently. From the data gathered through the interviews, it is very obvious that the people still feel very oppressed and that the situation is still very volatile, fraught with uncertainty. Finally, after making an assessment of the situation, the article tries to suggest methods of peaceful building and conflict management as the way forward.