COSMIC 掩星反演的水汽廓线质量分析

利用2006—2012年北半球冬季低纬度地区(30°S~30°N)无线电探空站数据及全球大气成分和气候监测再分析数据对1000 h Pa~200 h Pa高度层的气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统全球定位系统掩星反演的比湿廓线进行了精度和可靠性验证。结果表明,水汽对气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统掩星反演影响较大,尤其在中、低对流层及热带地区等水汽含量比较大的地区,且气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统掩星数据在850 hpa以下可能并不太适用于评估其他数据。     

利用全球探空站背景场资料分析不同掩星数据偏差特性

为验证不同掩星数据反演湿温廓线的精度,需量化分析其误差特性。采用分段线性插值法,以时间窗1 h、水平距离100 km为匹配准则,对0.2~30 km各插值高度层温度的平均偏差和标准差进行统计分析,旨在探究不同掩星数据偏差特性。通过采用2018—2019年期间的全球探空站背景场资料完整数据,评估中国区域不同掩星数据偏差。结果表明:与全球探空站背景场资料相比,各类掩星数据绝对负偏差小于0.4 K,整体均值偏差在-0.5～0.5 K间变化,故二者探测精度相当。通过显著性检验分析发现,折射率相对偏差很小,结合统计量F=0.985 7>0.05可知,不同掩星计划探测精度无显著性差异。     

2014—2016年FY-3C与COSMIC掩星电离层特征参数的比较

利用由FY-3C和COSMIC两个全球导航卫星系统无线电掩星任务提供的2014—2016共3年的电离层电子密度廓线，基于时间间隔7.5 min、经纬度间隔2.5°的时空匹配窗口，对两个掩星任务的电离层峰值密度（NmF2）和峰值高度（hmF2）进行了比较。结果表明：由两个任务得到的特征参数相关性良好，各年之间相关性水平基本稳定，其中各年NmF2和hmF2相关系数的平均值分别为0.87和0.75；FY-3C的特征参数相对于COSMIC的偏差很小，各年NmF2的绝对偏差均值和相对偏差均值分别不超过±0.25×10⁵ el/cm³和±15.0%，hmF2的绝对偏差均值和相对偏差均值分别不超过±7.00 km和±1.80%。此外，由两个任务得到的特征参数在空间上均表现出赤道及低纬地区数值较高且呈“条带状”分布的特点，且两个任务都监测到了2016年相对于2014年和2015年NmF2和 hmF2均存在显著下降的现象     

基于Volterra级数的航空年事故率预测方法

针对当前航空年事故率传统预测精度不高的问题,从分析混沌特性入手,对事故数据重构相空间,构建了航空年事故率预测的Volterra级数模型。对航空年事故率数据进行预处理,采用0-1混沌特性判定方法判断时序的混沌特性;在混沌时序的基础上,应用互信息法和假近邻法确定相空间的参数,重构相空间;基于此,构建二阶Volterra自适应预测模型,并采用NLMS算法实时获取模型的最优参数;最后,应用模型对美国空军飞行事故万时率进行预测,能够将相对误差控制在2%以内,优于传统灰色时序组合预测模型,所建的模型反映了航空装备的安全状况。     

北斗三号新信号体制共视时间比对

为促使北斗系统特别是北斗三号系统尽早加入国际原子时计算,利用中国科学院国家授时中心以及捷克无线电工程和电子学院两个守时实验室接收机产生的北斗三号新信号体制观测数据,开展基于北斗三号新信号体制共视时间比对试验。结果表明,北斗三号信号的多路径噪声影响小于北斗二号信号,且信噪比优于北斗二号信号。对比已有的研究,北斗三号新信号体制(B1C和B2a)共视时间比对的噪声相对于北斗三号卫星播发的北斗二号兼容信号体制(B1I和B3I)有较大的改善,其结果与GPS、Galileo共视比对结果相当,且在零基线共钟比对中,基于北斗三号新信号体制比对钟差的标准偏差相对于北斗二号信号提高了40%以上;利用北斗三号新信号体制共视得到的亚欧两地钟差噪声小于北斗二号信号,且比对钟差的稳定度相对于北斗二号提高了10%以上。该试验也可为北斗三号时间比对纳入国际原子时计算提供相关的研究基础。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.