声音

“我想重申，维护半岛的和平与稳定符合各方的共同利益。我们希望有关各方多为半岛及地区的和平与稳定做些事情。在有关各方的共同努力下，六方会谈机制正在向前发展。中国希望有关各方能够继续共同努力，推进六方会谈的进程。”     

非洲地区军事安全形势综述

2009年，非洲总体安全形势进一步趋好，没有爆发新的大规模武装冲突；大部分国家平稳度过了大选年，实现了政权的和平交接；一些地区的民族和解进程步履维艰，但是正朝着正确的方向前进；在推动热点地区的和平进程方面，非洲区域组织发挥着越来越来重要的作用。但必须指出，索马里形势依然堪忧，海盗活动尚未得到有效遏制，个别国家发生政变，反政府极端组织在一些国家不时发动袭击。     

“阿拉法特”仍在搅动中东

近日．巴勒斯坦领导人阿拉法特的死因问题在中东地区闹得沸沸扬扬,各方围绕阿拉法特的死因展开了新一轮政治博弈。去世已近8年的阿拉法特,仍在中东和平进程中显示举足轻重的作用。     

维和行动四要素

近年来,联合国维持和平行动在维护国际和平与地区安全中的独特作用引人注目,已成为多边框架下处理国际安全危机和解决地区热点问题的一个重要手段。目前,联合国监督团正在叙利亚执行观察局势和督促停火的任务,给持续动荡一年多的叙利亚乱局带来了一丝转机。作为一项最新的联合国维和行动,叙利亚监督团体现了国际社会对叙利亚局势的积极干预,客观上对于防止冲突升级恶化、保护普通民众权益、缓解各方利益博弈具有一定的积极作用。     

战略格局 大国关系 亚太环境——’96国际形势回顾与展望 国际缓和与多极化趋势不变 不稳定不确定因素也在增加 ’96国际安全形势的几个特点

1996年,国际安全形势继续保持着冷战结束以来所呈现的基本趋势,即继续走向缓和与加速向多极化发展;但另一方面,不稳定和不确定因素也在增加,局部战争和武装冲突不断发生,天下仍不太平,霸权主义和强权政治继续发展,一些地区又出现了紧张和动荡。 1,和平进程有喜有忱,局部战争和武装冲突烽火难熄。世界瞩目的波黑战争和车臣战争正逐步走向和平。在1995年波黑战争冲突三方在巴黎正式签署了全面和平协议之后,1996年波黑和平进程又有发展,战争硝烟已基本消失。9月,波黑在全国范围内举行了选     

英国：坚决打击“北独分子”

北爱尔兰问题，前些年曾是欧洲少有的几个“热区”之一。特别是爱尔兰共和军、民族解放军等恐怖组织策划组织的血腥暴力事件以及英国政府进行的镇压行动，造成了众多人员伤亡，影响了爱尔兰地区的稳定发展以及英国与北爱尔兰的和平进程。     

军事危机控制行动与方法问题研究

军事危机是指国家或政治集团之间的关系处于可能发生战争或军事冲突的危险状态.它既非战争也非和平,而是介于其间的一种"模糊状态".人类是走向战争,还是走向和平,往往取决于对军事危机的控制与处置.     

为什么以色列应该弃核？

2012年9月19日,以色列原子能委员会秘书长萨乌尔·切雷夫宣布以色列政府将不会参加即将举行的、旨在推动中东无核进程的会议。切雷夫这一宣言在大家的意料之中,它重申了以色列长久以来的立场,即只有在持久地区和平得以实现的前提下,中东地区才能实现无核化。在这一和平目标实现之前,耶路撒冷将不会为消除核武器采取实质性的措施。     

中东地区军事安全形势综述

2009年中东局势总体上相对稳定，热点问题有所降温，但导致地区动荡的各种不稳定因素依旧突出。美国新政府中东政策的调整迄今未见成效，热点问题无一解决；中东和平进程道路曲折，以色列右翼政府立场强硬，巴勒斯坦内部对话无实质进展；伊朗因选举出现内部动荡，现政权在核问题上态度强硬；伊拉克政治进程有所进展，但安全形势依然脆弱；阿拉伯世界内耗不断，民族、宗教问题进入新一轮活跃期。     

事件

中俄战略稳定磋商在京举行4月18日,外交部部长助理何亚非与俄罗斯联邦外交部副部长基斯里亚克在京举行战略稳定磋商。双方就当前国际安全形势、地区热点,多边军控和防扩散等问题深入交换了意见。双方强调,在当前国际形势下,维持全球战略稳定,增进国家间互信,以和平方式解决国际争端,支持多边军控进程,妥善解决有关防扩散问题对维护世界和平与安全至关重要。     

EASTERN SUDAN INDIGENOUS CONFLICT PREVENTION,MANAGEMENT AND RESOLUTION MECHANISMS

In the wake of heightened media and political pressure about the Darfur humanitarian catastrophe, the African Union (AU) hurriedly deployed its monitors in Darfur, to be augmented later by a protection force to safeguard the monitors, albeit without adequate pre-deployment and logistic assessment. Without doubt, the Darfur crisis has become the AU's major preoccupation for the past year. The deployment of the African Mission in Sudan (AMIS) since June 2004 has presented many challenges to the AU and its partners. A restrictive mandate, inadequate troops to cover Darfur, serious operational, logistical and capacity shortfalls have combined in an inextricable way to present the AU's mission to some observers as spineless and ineffective. The UN and partners have acknowledged the lead role of the AU in Darfur, and have been very supportive with assistance in these critical deficient areas. How the AU will take advantage of this favourable environment and optimise the benefits from its partners will be crucial to its success in Darfur. The article emphasises the need for the AU to strengthen its capacity and expertise at all levels of command through technical cooperation and appropriate assistance from the UN and partners. The entire world is waiting to see how Africa delivers on this critical assignment.     

UNAMID: an African solution to a complex case of geopolitical dynamics

This article examines the geopolitical dynamics associated with the African Union (AU) and United Nations hybrid operation in Darfur (UNAMID) from the start of the Darfur conflict in 2003 until the time when UNAMID became fully operational in 2011. It provides an overview of the complex forces and geopolitical dynamics that affected the deployment of UNAMID and shaped its unique hybrid character. It mainly highlights those primary geopolitical factors that hindered the full deployment of UNAMID. It is concluded that this period was a showcase for the newly established AU and its support for its member states, as well as a new approach for the international community to maintain international peace and security in alliance with regional organisations.     

A FOCUS ON SMALL ARMS

For much of the past two years, the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) has managed to achieve a semblance of stability in much of Darfur, which has been reflected in the improvement of humanitarian conditions. At the same time, the mission has come under serious international pressure to respond appropriately to the deteriorating security situation on the ground by enhancing its presence and effectiveness. Subsequently, following the decisions of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC), AMIS has undertaken two successive enhancements. Although the last enhancement exercise was remarkably successful, it could not be considered complete without the provision of the outstanding personnel and logistics by both member countries and the international partners. Meanwhile, serious challenges continue to undermine the mission's effectiveness and its prospects, not the least of these obstacles being adequate funding. At present, the mission is in a dilemma with respect to its mandate, engaging with the parties, partners, implementation of the N'sDjamena Humanitarian Ceasefire Agreement (HCFA), and the way forward, as the AU is now almost totally dependent on external donations to sustain its Darfur operations. This article therefore explores the way forward in all these thematic areas in order to make appropriate recommendations.     

‘Fighting for peace’

In Africa, most of the present conflicts are civil, intra-state wars where belligerent groups use guerrilla tactics to achieve various political, economic or ideological objectives. The atrocities and the effect of these on-going wars on innocent civilians, human suffering, poverty and development are beyond comprehension. Not surprisingly, the majority of current peace operations are in Africa, with more than 70 countries contributing forces to these conflict zones. On the continent, South Africa has come to assume a leading role in peace operations and is now a major troop-contributing country to UN and AU missions. In the past 11 years, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) has taken part in no fewer than 14 peace missions. This article provides a brief background of the conflicts in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan, the different United Nations (UN) and African Union (AU) mandates under which peacekeepers had to operate as well as their objectives, and the extent of South Africa's involvement in the various missions. In the last section, the major challenges, that these operations have posed are highlighted.     

SOMALIA AND SOMALILAND

The authors consider the recent referral by the UN Security Council of the situation in the western region of Sudan (Darfur) for investigation and prosecution to the International Criminal Court. The paper focuses on the context of this referral, especially since the referral signals a capitulation by the United States of America (which had the power to veto the referral) in the face of worldwide pressure for the United Nations to take action against perpetrators of atrocities in Sudan. In considering the referral, the authors point out that the International Criminal Court has been handed a hot potato. Because it is one of the first cases that the court will hear, the spotlight will be on the court's effectiveness as an instrument of international criminal justice. Sudan is not party to the court's statute, however, and accordingly owes the court no obligation to cooperate in the investigation and prosecution of Sudanese offenders.     

Justice empowered or justice hampered: The International Criminal Court in Darfur

It came as a surprise to many international observers when, on 31 March 2005, the United Nations Security Council passed resolution 1593, which referred the situation in Darfur to the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Some celebrated this event as initiating a new era in which international criminal justice would prevail, but they might have done well to consider the objections immediately raised by the representatives of the Sudanese government, which was not a party to the ICC, a point that created a series of impediments to the implementation of the resolution. For all that the ICC has been charged with investigating crimes against humanity in Darfur, its investigators are being prevented from seeking the evidence on the ground essential to any successful prosecution. The Sudanese government has so far maintained its obstructive position, arguing that it is capable of handling such cases within its own sovereign jurisdiction. The imperative of excluding the ICC from Darfur has contributed to Khartoum's objections to the deployment of a UN force to replace the African Union mission there. In sum: the challenges faced by the ICC in Darfur demonstrate that international criminal justice does not operate in a political vacuum.     

Low-intensity conflict in Eastern Sudan: A comparative approach to the development of rebel groups

This article discusses the development of a low-intensity conflict in Sudan's eastern region between 1994 and 2006. Drawing on data collected in the region in 2009, recruitment processes within three different insurgent groups are analysed and compared, paying attention to the impact of these processes on insurgents' organisational development and military capacity. The peace process in Eastern Sudan is further discussed, focusing specifically on the disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) programmes for former insurgents. The article finally discusses current developments and draws conclusions regarding the risk of renewed rebellion in Eastern Sudan.     

When to Get Out of the Trench? Using Smart Pressure to Resolve Civil Wars

This article puts forward a theory of smart pressure, which emphasises that third-party pressure only works if the conflict parties under pressure can agree with the endpoint of this pressure. Hence, a potential mutually acceptable agreement needs to be formulated before a mediator starts to apply pressure. To this argument, this article employs two case studies: the mediation efforts leading up to the Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement concluded in 2005 and the Darfur Peace Agreement concluded in 2006. These cases support the smart pressure theory and suggest that mediators need to be modest about what they can accomplish using pressure.     

Peace enforcement in Africa: Doctrinal distinctions between the African Union and United Nations

When the United Nations (UN) Security Council needs to authorize a peace enforcement operation in Africa, its partner of choice is the African Union (AU). Africa has developed significant peace operations capacity over the past decade. In addition to deploying eight AU operations, Africa now contributes 50% of all UN peacekeepers. African stability operations, like its mission in Somalia, are often described as peace enforcement operations. In this article, I question whether it is accurate to categorize African stability operations as peace enforcement? I answer the question by considering what the criteria are that are used to differentiate between peace enforcement and peacekeeping operations in the UN context. I then use the peace enforcement criteria to assess whether AU stabilization operations would qualify as peace enforcement operations. In conclusion, I consider the implications of the findings for the strategic partnership between the AU and the UN.     

Beyond the state: reconceptualising African security in the 21st century

Confronted with myriad security challenges, African states and the much-vaunted peace and security architecture of the African Union (AU) has proven not to be up to the challenge. Indeed, this is implicitly acknowledged by the AU itself if one considers the creation of such security structures as the African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which exists outside its peace and security architecture. This paper argues for a radical rethink of security structures on the African continent – one in which state structures of security coexist with newer forms of security actors, including private military companies (PMCs), community movements and the business sector. Whilst this shift in security actors is already happening on the ground, policymakers need to embrace this new reality.