舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估研究

从系统分析舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估问题入手,深入研究了协同作战环境下编队空中目标威胁评估的基本过程。在此基础上,针对编队协同决策的特点,建立了基于两层决策的协同作战环境下编队空中目标威胁评估模型,从而提出了舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估方法。最后,通过实例说明了所提方法的有效性。     

不确定条件下编队协同作战空中目标威胁评估

针对决策环境的不确定性,对不确定条件下舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估过程进行了深入研究;在此基础上,根据舰艇编队协同决策的特点,综合运用风险型多属性决策理论,建立了满足不同决策层的舰艇目标威胁评估模型和编队目标威胁评估模型,从而提出了不确定条件下编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估方法。最后,通过实例说明了所提方法的有效性。     

大型水面舰艇编队空中来袭目标威胁值评估

结合大型水面舰艇编队拥有的防空兵力体系、防空区域划分以及空中来袭目标的属性,建立空中目标分组模型,运用模糊理论的方法对同一组中的目标进行威胁值评估,在此基础上建立大型水面舰艇编队的空中目标威胁值评估模型。该模型可以为大型水面舰艇编队防空作战提供参考。     

基于多属性目标决策的威胁评估排序模型

针对当前海战中对舰艇编队构成威胁的空中目标的特点,运用目标多属性理论探索对空中目标的威胁排序问题.提出了一种对空中目标进行威胁评估和排序的方法,并通过示例介绍了威胁评估和排序的求解过程.该方法有效地解决了目标威胁评估与排序问题,提高了舰艇编队防空作战能力.     

基于分层防御的空中目标威胁值评定模型

按照分层防御的原则,结合水面舰艇编队防空火力的主要性能和空中目标的部分属性,首先建立了空中目标的威胁分级模型,再在同一威胁等级中运用模糊理论根据目标的属性进行进一步评定,从而建立了基于分层防御的空中目标的威胁值评定模型。本模型可为水面舰艇编队防空作战决策提供一定的参考。     

海上舰艇编队对空感知度研究

海上舰艇编队面临的空中威胁日益增大导致其对空探测能力加强。利用概率论在探测空中目标中的算法,建立了对空感知度计算模型,计算了海上舰艇编队对不同空中目标的感知度,定性分析了对空感知度与相关因素的关系,并提出了一些提高舰艇编队对空感知能力的对策。     

舰艇编队对空中目标的威胁程度判断模型

根据舰艇编队对空防御的要求,综合考虑了目标运动状态和历史战术动作,将目标攻击企图和攻击达成概率纳入目标威胁判断之中,建立了空中运动目标实时威胁程度判断模型,为编队防空作战火力组织提供了基本依据。该模型解决了传统静态威胁判断模型存在的一些问题,模型的仿真结果符合一般战术推理和经验判断,能较好地描述空中目标威胁程度的变化,可以为编队防空指挥自动化决策研究提供一定的参考。     

基于灰色区间关联决策的海上编队反导威胁评估

如何对舰艇编队的来袭导弹威胁程度进行科学的评估与排序,是防空反导指挥中的重要环节.目前威判中常常考虑最大值所提供的信息,存在结果失真的情况,所以采用区间数来表示更有现实意义.分析了舰艇编队多目标威胁评判的指标体系,据此给出了影响目标威胁的主要因素,并给出了主要因素的隶属函数,将区间数和灰色理论结合,构建了灰色区间关联决策模型并应用于多目标威胁排序中,实例计算分析表明,所提出的方法较好地解决了多目标多指标问题,对舰艇编队反导威胁判断提供了一个有效的参考处理方法.     

水面舰艇面临的空中威胁

在现代海上高技术局部战争中,空中威胁目标的内涵、特征、战术等都有了新的发展,水面舰艇面临的空中威胁日趋严重。随着高新技术在现代海战中的广泛应用,空中威胁环境在不断地变化:目标的机动能力大大提高;隐身技术披广泛应用于各类飞行器;目标更多地实施低空突防和掠海、掠地飞行,实施饱和攻击和防区外攻击;大规模的电子战将贯穿战争的始末;战术弹道导弹和各类无人机将对水面舰艇构成新的威胁。因此,对于海上舰艇机动编队,制空、防空将是作战的重要组成部分。必须在海上     

水面舰艇编队空中威胁扇面角预测模型

针对水面舰艇编队空中威胁扇面角的预测问题,分析了影响空中威胁扇面角大小的主要因素。以具有航路规划能力的远程反舰导弹为对象,从航空兵及远程反舰导弹的作战使用特点和装备性能限制着手,建立了计算威胁扇面角的数学模型。通过仿真分析,得出了主要参数对威胁扇面角的影响规律,为水面舰艇编队对空防御兵力的配置提供了依据。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.