基于D-S证据理论和AHP的故障诊断方法研究

提出了一种基于D-S证据理论和AHP的故障诊断方法,给出了基于AHP法的基本概率分配构造方法.最后,结合故障诊断实例,详细阐述了该诊断方法的应用过程,在对多个传感器提供的证据进行合成后,诊断结论的可信度明显提高,不确定性明显降低,证明该诊断方法合理有效.     

基于BPAF判决的决策层目标属性融合研究

在D-S证据理论框架下,研究了基于目标基本概率赋值(BPAF)判决的决策层目标属性融合问题。简要介绍了D-S证据组合理论框架,阐述了基于BPAF判决的决策层目标属性融合策略、步骤;分析了证据严重冲突时,Dempster证据组合规则不合理的本质原因;提出必须对D-S证据组合规则进行改善等需要继续深入探讨的几个问题。     

基于定性信息的装备技术状态评估

利用定性信息对装备技术状态进行评估是提高评估时效性的有效手段.通过对装备技术状态评估研究现状的分析,论证了运用D-S证据理论进行装备技术状态评估的可行性.结合D-S证据理论的特点,提出了适用于装备技术状态评估的可信度分配策略.采用基于投影的证据融合方法,以解决传统D-S证据理论在融合高冲突证据时的缺陷.在评价决策中运用最大基本信度状态评价准则进行评价决策.最后,将提出的分析方法,应用于某具体装备的技术状态评估中,验证了该方法的有效性.     

基于区间数多指标决策的效能评估方法

针对武器效能评估的指标值以及度量指标权重的选取存在不确定性、模糊性和主观性的问题,根据作战效能的特点与系统工程思想,提出了基于区间数的灰色关联法和D-S证据理论相结合的效能评估方法。通过灰色关联法将指标区间值转化为以理想属性偏离度为测度的矩阵,在此基础上与D-S证据理论相结合,构造一种新的基本概率分配函数和新的信息不确定度提取方法,把不确定性问题转化为确定性问题,再利用D-S合成法则进行信息融合,确定最优方案。通过案例分析,结果表明该方法可以得到有效的决策结果并降低决策的不确定性。     

基于通用黑板模型的IMSE网络中心节点识别

运用通用黑板理论和D-S证据理论探索IMSE网络中心节点识别问题。构建了基于通用黑板框架的IMSE网络中心节点识别模型,讨论了该模型体系的体系结构和实现方法,对该模型的工作流程进行了详细论述。给出了一种基于D-S证据理论的高效识别规则。该系统中专家系统直接给出了基本概率赋值,减少了计算繁琐程度,从而可大大减轻目标识别系统的压力。最后通过仿真结果具体分析了模型的工作情况。     

BP神经网络和D-S证据理论的目标识别

目标识别是指挥自动化系统的一个重要组成部分,针对现代战争对抗手段不断增强的特点,运用BP神经网络和D-S证据理论探索作战飞机机型的识别方法.前端采用3层BP神经网络结构,以传感器接收数据为输入,以神经网络输出作为证据,后端对不同传感器的证据按D-S理论进行融合,得到待识别目标的识别概率.经由MATLAB编程对国内外几种主要机型的识别进行仿真研究,与现行目标识别方法相比较,能够更快速、准确、可靠地识别飞机目标,较好地满足了空战中作战指挥系统对飞机机型识别的需求.     

基于改进D-S证据理论的雷达生存效能

为了综合分析雷达的生存效能,通过调整非关键因素和不确定因素的基本可信度对证据理论中证据合成规则进行了改进,并基于改进D-S证据理论提出了雷达生存效能评估模型.改进后的证据合成规则不仅减小了证据的冲突,而且仍然满足证据的基本可信度之和为1的基本要求,保持Dempster合成规则所具有的可交换性.通过雷达生存效能模型应用的一个实际例子计算表明,证据理论是一种科学的效能评估方法,具有可行性和实用性,改进后的证据合成规则能够较好地分析雷达的生存效能.     

基于D-S证据理论的多传感器雷达辐射源识别模型

针对复杂电磁环境下多传感器获得的雷达辐射源信息具有不确定性的情况,利用灰色定权聚类法对大量的传感器数据进行处理,以简化雷达辐射源特征数据,在此基础上,探讨了通过灰关联分析确定证据理论中基本概率赋值函数的方法,并应用修正的D-S证据理论实现目标识别,通过仿真验证了该模型能够有效减小雷达辐射源所受的噪声干扰,具有一定的可行性。     

一种多传感器雷达辐射源识别的组合方法

针对复杂电磁环境下多传感器获得的雷达辐射源信息具有不确定性的情况,提出了一种雷达辐射源识别的组合方法.首先利用灰色定权聚类法对大量的传感器数据进行处理,以简化雷达辐射源特征数据,在此基础上通过灰色关联分析法确定证据理论中的基本概率赋值函数,并应用修正的D-S证据理论实现多时刻条件下目标识别.通过仿真算例可知,该方法能够有效减小雷达辐射源所受的噪声干扰,具有一定的可行性.     

组合网络与证据理论相结合的电路故障诊断

针对神经网络中两种常用的网络类型BP和Elman,在模拟电路故障诊断中的应用过程的特点——各自网络都有自身缺陷,提出基于BP-Elman神经网络与证据理论相结合的故障诊断方法.首先BP-Elman网络得出其各自的初步诊断结果,经过必要的转换将其转换成证据理论的概率赋值,作为证据组合的依据;证据理论组合规则将初步诊断结果融合得出决策级诊断结果.通过对某装备位置调节器板的故障诊断过程表明,该模型经过尽可能融合有效故障信息,大大提高了系统的诊断精度和诊断正确率,而且有效降低了系统不确定性.     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

物理学中的辩证自然观——控制、信息、系统与辩证自然观

和谐律、守恒律、方向律是自然辩证法中自然观的三大规律,它们贯穿、融合并体现于各具体学科的研究领域中。本文主要以自然辨证规律在控制与系统科学中的体现为依托,系统阐述物理学中控制系统理论与信息理论及其应用中自然观三大规律的具体表现。     

The practice and theory of British counterinsurgency: the histories of the atrocities at the Palestinian villages of al-Bassa and Halhul, 1938–1939

This article details two largely unreported atrocities by British forces operating against Arab rebels during the Arab revolt, 1936–9, at the Palestinian villages of al-Bassa and Halhul. It then examines the military-legal system that underpinned and authorised British military forces operating in aid of the civil power, suggesting that the law in place at the time allowed for a level of reprisals and punitive actions, such as happened at al-Bassa and Halhul. The article does not conclude that the law allowed for atrocities but it does argue that it gave a basic form and understanding to an operational method that was brutal and could lead to atrocities. It thus tests the idea in much of the literature on counterinsurgency that the British were restrained and used minimum force when compared to other colonial and neo-colonial powers fighting insurgents.     

Into the black box? Technology sharing in major arms transfers and beyond

From the recipients’ perspective, arms transfers have, through the use of offsets, technology transfers, and industrial participation, become an opportunity to receive not only advanced weapons, but also technologies not otherwise available. How important are friendly relations for securing a military export order? To what extent do buyers demand advanced military or commercial technology and how are these demands accepted by the supplier? How does this influence smaller producers in relation to major producers? These questions are addressed by studying (a) the Joint Strike Fighter/F-35 by Lockheed Martin, USA, and the JAS-39 Gripen aircraft by Saab, Sweden, (b) the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft competition in India for 126 combat aircraft, and (c) the Indian offset policy. In the final section, some long-term consequences are discussed.     

A Muslim by any other name

Abstract

A crisis is emerging in the Nile Basin, where some 300 million people in Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi rely on the Nile directly or indirectly. Egypt and Sudan wish to preserve a regime based on treaties drawn up during the colonial era that allocated the vast majority of the Nile's water to them. Countries upstream are determined to challenge this. In 1999 the countries using the river formed the Nile Basin Initiative to try to resolve these differences. More than a decade of negotiations failed to break the impasse. In May Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda decided to wait no longer and signed a new treaty, without the consent of Egypt and Sudan. The signatories have given the other Nile Basin countries one year to join the pact. For Egypt, which relies on the Nile for 95 per cent of its water, this is a question of life or death. Egypt has, in the past, indicated it will go to war if its share of the Nile is reduced. Talks continue, but the impasse is driving the region towards a crisis to which there is no easy resolution.     

爆炸冲击波对靶板的损伤仿真与评估研究

为了研究爆炸冲击波对武器装备的损伤，建立了炸药爆炸冲击靶板的有限元模型，对不同厚度靶板在确定爆炸冲击环境下的损伤进行了仿真试验。不同于传统的宏观破口尺寸损伤表征参数，引入了等效塑性应变来精确描述靶板损伤，并提出了一种基于主成分分析理论对靶板损伤进行评估的方法。结果表明：利用该方法所得到的计算结果与理论分析结果完全一致。这说明基于多元统计分析的靶板损伤评估方法是切实可行的，可以进一步应用于装备爆炸损伤评估与易损性研究中。     

静电放电抗扰度试验中辐射场若干特性的试验研究

国际标准IEc61000-4—2中对静电放电抗扰度试验方法和试验布局进行了规定，但是对间接静电放电（ESD）产生的辐射场没有进行描述。根据标准IEc61000—4—2，首先对水平耦合板和垂直耦合板放电时垂直耦合板上的场分布进行了分析，然后对几种医疗设备进行静电放电抗扰度试验。试验得出：1）对两种耦合板放电时，水平耦合板上电场强度和磁场强度随测试距离的变化趋势不同；2）试验结果对ESD模拟器的种类有着依赖关系。这些结果为研究电子设备静电放电抗扰度试验新方法、新标准和新的试验平台及诊断评估方法提供了参考依据。     

超声颗粒监测中聚焦的必要性及相应参数的确定方法

分析了超声波颗粒监测中探头聚焦的必要性,并介绍了与聚焦探头有关的聚焦参数（Ｆｚ,Ｂｗ）的理论确定方法。     

多级安全数据库体系结构及其策略模型的研究

通过对现有多级安全数据库体系结构和策略模型的研究,分析它们各自存在的不足,给出了一个基于核心化体系结构的MLS-DBMS体系结构,并在现有策略模型的基础上,提出了一个基于扩展安全级的安全模型.该安全模型增加了策略模型的灵活性,提高了数据库系统的安全性和可用性.