Causative matrix technique for deriving interim period transition probabilities in nonstationary markov process

The Markov assumption that transition probabilities are assumed to be constant over entire periods has been applied in economic and social structures, for example, in the analysis of income and wage distributions. In many cases, however, nonstationary transition probabilities exist over different periods. Based on causative matrix technique, this study shows a binomial approximation for obtaining nonstationary interim transition probabilities under undisturbance when the first and the last transition matrices are known.     

‘The People are Revolting’: An Anatomy of Authoritarian Counterinsurgency

Rather than win hearts and minds, authoritarian counterinsurgency is said to rely heavily on coercion. It has a reputation for effectiveness, if also for its amorality. Still, the research into authoritarian counterinsurgency is surprisingly lacking. By distilling common features from key cases, this article concludes that this approach goes beyond the indiscriminate violence that typically captures the imagination. Like their democratic counterparts but differently, authoritarian regimes also engage in mobilisation, create narratives, and turn military advantage into political gain. The analysis explains how these tasks are undertaken and, by contradistinction, sheds light on more liberal approaches as well.     

Book reviews

Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict: Threats to European Security. By Stephen Iwan Griffiths. SIPRI Research Report No. 5. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1993), ISBN 0-19-829162-0, £16.50.

Red Storm on the Reich, By C.J. Duffy. Routledge, London (1991) ISBN 0-415-0359-9, £35.00.

Gangsters and Revolutionaries. By R. Cribb. Allen and Unwin, ISBN 0-O4-301296-5 (1992), £12.95.

The Cyanide War. By E. O'Ballance. Brassey's, London (1989). ISBN 0 08 036695 3, Price £18.00.     

An efficient heuristic for the multi-item newsboy problem with a single constraint

This article treats the problem of determining optimal and approximately optimal order quantities for a multiple-item inventory system subject to a single constraint on space or budget. Although this problem can be solved by the usual method of Lagrange multipliers, we wish to consider a more efficient scheme that requires fewer computations. We provide calculations that compare and contrast four approximation techniques. In particular, we have discovered a method that yields a direct algebraic expression of the problem parameters for allocation and achieves an expected profit within 90% of the optimal in about 90% of the cases tested.     

Disaggregation in economic models

This article illustrates numerically that the adjustment path of the economy will not show how a national policymaker may be misled by overaggregation until it is too late for correction. Labor and other resources are overaggregated in the equilibrating mechanism of most economic models, tending to mislead policymakers regarding both the amount and direction of change of important variables. Overaggregation also hides important constraints and tradeoffs which masks opportunities to use slack resources. In turn, this creates unnecessary dilemmas, such as that between inflation and unemployment which plagued the progress of the Humphrey-Hawkins Bill. The article first illustrates the hypothesis using simple models. Then its relevance to current analysis and planning is discussed.     

Duality for quasi-concave programs with application to economics

A duality theory is developed for mathematical programs with strictly quasi-concave objective functions to be maximized over a convex set. This work broadens the duality theory of Rockafellar and Peterson from concave (convex) functions to quasi-concave (quasi-convex) functions. The theory is closely related to the utility theory in economics. An example from economic planning is examined and the solution to the dual program is shown to have the properties normally associated with market prices.     

On the aggregation of preferences

The article attempts to show how network theory may be applied to gain new and better insights into basic economic problems. Starting with a precise definition of what is meant by acting and, in particular, by economic acting, we direct the line of argumentation toward solving the problem of how to aggregate economic decisions. Results indicate that network theory might well prove itself to be a powerful instrument in developing a theory of human behavior much more comprehensive than currently used models.     

A targeting model that minimizes collateral damage

This paper considers the problem of allocating weapons to achieve targeting objectives while simultaneously minimizing aggregate damage to surrounding nonmilitary facilities, each of which has an upper limit to the damage it is permitted to incur. A model is formulated which assumes only that damage to individual targets or associated facilities does not decrease as the number of allocated weapons increases. An implicit enumeration algorithm, based on that of Lawler and Bell is described that yields optimal integer solutions. An example is presented.     

A characterization of the value of zero-sum two-person games

For the family D, consisting of those zero-sum two-person games which have a value, the value-function on D is characterized by four properties called objectivity, monotony, symmetry and sufficiency.