Optimal replacement of continuously degrading systems in partially observed environments

Motivated by wind energy applications, we consider the problem of optimally replacing a stochastically degrading component that resides and operates in a partially observable environment. The component's rate of degradation is modulated by the stochastic environment process, and the component fails when it is accumulated degradation first reaches a fixed threshold. Assuming periodic inspection of the component, the objective is to minimize the long‐run average cost per unit time of performing preventive and reactive replacements for two distinct cases. The first case examines instantaneous replacements and fixed costs, while the second considers time‐consuming replacements and revenue losses accrued during periods of unavailability. Formulated and solved are mixed state space, partially observable Markov decision process models, both of which reveal the optimality of environment‐dependent threshold policies with respect to the component's cumulative degradation level. Additionally, it is shown that for each degradation value, a threshold policy with respect to the environment belief state is optimal if the environment alternates between two states. The threshold policies are illustrated by way of numerical examples using both synthetic and real wind turbine data. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 395–415, 2015     

Selling to strategic and loss‐averse consumers: Stocking,procurement, and product design policies

Motivated by the presence of loss‐averse decision making behavior in practice, this article considers a supply chain consisting of a firm and strategic consumers who possess an S‐shaped loss‐averse utility function. In the model, consumers decide the purchase timing and the firm chooses the inventory level. We find that the loss‐averse consumers' strategic purchasing behavior is determined by their perceived gain and loss from strategic purchase delay, and the given rationing risk. Thus, the firm that is cognizant of this property tailors its inventory stocking policy based on the consumers' loss‐averse behavior such as their perceived values of gain and loss, and their sensitivity to them. We also demonstrate that the firm's equilibrium inventory stocking policy reflects both the economic logic of the traditional newsvendor inventory model, and the loss‐averse behavior of consumers. The equilibrium order quantity is significantly different from those derived from models that assume that the consumers are risk neutral and homogeneous in their valuations. We show that the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior tends to keep an unnecessarily high inventory level that leads to excessive leftovers. Our numerical experiments further reveal that in some extreme cases the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior generates almost 92% more leftovers than the firm that possesses consumers’ loss‐aversion information and takes it into account when making managerial decisions. To mitigate the consumer's forward‐looking behavior, we propose the adoption of the practice of agile supply chain management, which possesses the following attributes: (i) procuring inventory after observing real‐time demand information, (ii) enhanced design (which maintains the current production mix but improves the product performance to a higher level), and (iii) customized design (which maintains the current performance level but increases the variety of the current production line to meet consumers’ specific demands). We show that such a practice can induce the consumer to make early purchases by increasing their rationing risk, increasing the product value, or diversifying the product line. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 435–453, 2015     

The loss‐averse newsvendor problem with supply options

In this article, we consider a loss‐averse newsvendor with stochastic demand. The newsvendor might procure options when demand is unknown, and decide how many options to execute only after demand is revealed. If the newsvendor reserves too many options, he would incur high reservation costs. Yet reserving too few could result in lost sales. So the newsvendor faces a trade‐off between reservation costs and losing sales. When there are multiple options available, the newsvendor has to consider how many units of each to reserve by studying the trade‐off between flexibility and costs. We show how the newsvendor's loss aversion behavior affects his ordering decision, and propose an efficient algorithm to compute his optimal solution in the general case with n options. We also present examples showing how the newsvendor's ordering strategy changes as loss aversion rises. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 62:46–59, 2015     

Optimal and asymptotically optimal policies for assemble‐to‐order n‐ and W‐systems

We consider two specially structured assemble‐to‐order (ATO) systems—the N‐ and W‐systems—under continuous review, stochastic demand, and nonidentical component replenishment leadtimes. Using a hybrid approach that combines sample‐path analysis, linear programming, and the tower property of conditional expectation, we characterize the optimal component replenishment policy and common‐component allocation rule, present comparative statics of the optimal policy parameters, and show that some commonly used heuristic policies can lead to significant optimality loss. The optimality results require certain symmetry in the cost parameters. In the absence of this symmetry, we show that, for systems with high demand volume, the asymptotically optimal policy has essentially the same structure; otherwise, the optimal policies have no clear structure. For these latter systems, we develop heuristic policies and show their effectiveness. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 617–645, 2015     

Auctions in the post‐change‐order period

A change order is frequently initiated by either the supplier or the buyer, especially when the contract is long‐term or when the contractual design is complex. In response to a change order, the buyer can enter a bargaining process to negotiate a new price. If the bargaining fails, she pays a cancellation fee (or penalty) and opens an auction. We call this process the sequential bargaining‐auction (BA). At the time of bargaining, the buyer is uncertain as to whether the bargained price is set to her advantage; indeed, she might, or might not, obtain a better price in the new auction. To overcome these difficulties, we propose a new change‐order‐handling mechanism by which the buyer has an option to change the contractual supplier after bargaining ends with a bargained price. We call this the option mechanism. By this mechanism, the privilege of selling products or services is transferred to a new supplier if the buyer exercises the option. To exercise the option, the buyer pays a prespecified cash payment, which we call the switch price, to the original supplier. If the option is not exercised, the bargained price remains in effect. When a switch price is proposed by the buyer, the supplier decides whether or not to accept it. If the supplier accepts it, the buyer opens an auction. The option is exercised when there is a winner in the auction. This article shows how, under the option mechanism, the optimal switch price and the optimal reserve price are determined. Compared to the sequential BA, both the buyer and the supplier benefit. Additionally, the option mechanism coordinates the supply chain consisting of the two parties. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 248–265, 2015     

高海拔下柴油机燃用含氧燃料的试验研究

为解决高海拔地区因缺氧和燃料燃烧不完全造成的发动机动力下降和燃油消耗率增加的问题,将生物柴油以不同体积分数(5%,10%)掺混到柴油中进行发动机台架试验。通过控制发动机进气压力模拟高海拔条件下含氧燃料的燃烧,考察平原和海拔3 000 m地区不同掺混比例的含氧燃料对发动机性能的影响。结果表明:在平原燃用含氧燃料,发动机功率较燃用纯柴油有所降低,且降幅随生物柴油添加量的增加而增大,同时燃油消耗率上升;在海拔3 000 m地区燃用含氧燃料,发动机功率较燃用纯柴油有所增加,且燃油消耗率下降;不管是在平原还是在海拔3 000 m地区,燃用含氧燃料均能够显著降低HC、CO和碳烟排放,但NOx排放有所增加。     

基于犯罪预防的高层住宅小区防卫设计策略探析

过快的城市化进程引发了包括住区犯罪在内的一系列城市问题。住宅小区的规划设计虽不是导致犯罪发生的直接原因,但其在设计上的缺陷却为犯罪的实施提供了一定的便利。高层住宅小区相比于多层住宅小区,在基于犯罪预防的防卫设计层面存在更为突出的问题。从现状入手,通过实地调研,分析了高层住宅小区在防卫设计上的难点,并从车行道路的规划、半公共领域的界定、单体设计的要点、绿化设计的布局等4个方面提出了防卫设计策略,为高层住宅小区的规划设计提供参考。     

有机混合物体系的介电亚微相态特征

以壬酸、油酸、新润滑油及对应的氧化润滑油为分散样品,以-10号军用柴油为分散介质,在施加64 V直流偏置电压和长时间静置的条件下,介电谱分析技术表征的不同分散体系的介电亚微相态变化规律为:0.3 m L分散样品与3 m L分散介质形成的均匀分散体系的介电谱实部响应数据与柴油分散介质几乎没有差异;壬酸和油酸均匀分散体系与柴油分散介质的介电谱虚部响应数据差异极小,新润滑油和对应氧化润滑油形成的均匀分散体系与柴油分散介质的介电虚部响应数据有明显差异。0.3 m L分散样品在3 m L分散介质中分散时,壬酸、油酸、新润滑油及对应的氧化润滑油体系的介电谱实部和虚部响应数据与柴油分散介质之间的差异具有不同特点,且施加直流偏置电压对分散过程有较大促进作用。研究结果证明,介电谱能够较好地表征不同分散体系的介电亚微相态特征。     

一种应用于舰船编队的频谱分配辅助决策算法

为了避免舰船编队作战过程中电子设备间的电磁干扰,提高电磁频谱分配的准确性和快速性,需要对编队实施电磁频谱管理。文章首先提出编队电磁频谱管控的整体方案,并创新性地提出一种基于表上作业法和范例推理相结合的电磁频谱管理辅助决策算法求解编队频谱分配问题。利用该算法实现频谱分配功能,对于减少决策失误、缩短分配时间、提高舰船编队电磁频谱管理能力,具有重要而现实的意义。     

舰船水消防系统战斗损伤的智能重构决策与应用

针对当前舰船水消防系统监控点信息孤立、智能化决策程度不高的问题,构建了基于节点的水消防系统功能逻辑模型,提出了基于战斗损伤的水消防系统破损隔离重构使用智能决策算法,并据此开发了水消防智能监控系统。案例对比计算和系统测试检验的结果表明,该智能决策算法以及智能监控系统可以有效提升分析决策的速度和精度,显著提高指挥控制的效率,为水消防系统的战斗破损使用提供有效的支撑。