Factors that affect the optimal amount of central control in complex systems

Whereas much of the previous research in complex systems has focused on emergent properties resulting from self‐organization of the individual agents that make up the system, this article studies one vital role of central organization. In particular, four factors are conjectured to be key in determining the optimal amount of central control. To validate this hypothesis, these factors are represented as controllable parameters in a mathematical model. For different combinations of parameter values, the optimal amount of central control is found, either analytically or by computer simulation. The model is shown to provide results that match well with the level of control found across a broad spectrum of specific complex systems. This model also provides general guidelines as to how combinations of these factors affect the desirable level of control and specific guidelines for selecting and evaluating leaders. These results indicate that all of these factors, though not exhaustive, should be considered carefully when attempting to determine the amount of control that is best for a system. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Weakest‐link attacker‐defender games with multiple attack technologies

In this article, we examine a model of terrorism that focuses on the tradeoffs facing a terrorist organization that has two qualitatively different attack modes at its disposal. The terrorist organization's objective is to successfully attack at least one target. Success for the target government is defined as defending all targets from any and all attacks. In this context, we examine how terrorist entities strategically utilize an efficient but discrete attack technology — e.g., suicide attacks — when a more conventional mode of attack is available, and the optimal anti‐terrorism measures.© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

A finite descent theory for linear programming,piecewise linear convex minimization,and the linear complementarity problem

A descent algorithm simultaneously capable of solving linear programming, piecewise linear convex minimization, and the linear complementarity problem is developed. Conditions are given under which a solution can be found in a finite number of iterations using the geometry of the problem. A computer algorithm is developed and test problems are solved by both this method and Lemke's algorithm. Current results indicate a decrease in the number of cells visited but an increase in the total number of pivots needed to solve the problem.     

Decomposing inventory routing problems with approximate value functions

We present a time decomposition for inventory routing problems. The methodology is based on valuing inventory with a concave piecewise linear function and then combining solutions to single‐period subproblems using dynamic programming techniques. Computational experiments show that the resulting value function accurately captures the inventory's value, and solving the multiperiod problem as a sequence of single‐period subproblems drastically decreases computational time without sacrificing solution quality. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

A Central Asian Security Paradigm: Russia and Uzbekistan

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) is a Central Asian terrorist organization that has carried out series of attacks in countries like Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for years. With the ultimate goal of creating a Central Asian Caliphate, the IMU, even in its current weak state, is a regional threat. A military solution to this problem appears to be the likely answer. Regional powers like the Russian Federation and China should be militarily involved in Uzbekistan, along with Uzbek and neighboring forces in order to defeat the IMU militarily. This will promote greater integration among these countries and eliminate a violent organization which could become a destabilizing factor if not dealt with.     

A war of attrition: Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigers

After decades of fighting, the secessionist war between the government of Sri Lanka and the secessionist movement known as the Tamil Tigers of Eelam continues. Military operations have failed to achieve a decisive victory over the other side. This article aims to prove that the Sri Lankan civil war should be regarded as a war of attrition, as military actions have failed, and possibly will continue to fail, to produce a victor.     

The impact of military expenditures on economic growth in the less developed countries∗

This paper presents the results of empirical research on the economic impact of military expenditure — milex — on the less developed countries. The hypothesis is that the impact on growth is a combination of three effects: (1) increased security — positive impact; (2) diversion of resources from productive investment — negative impact; and (3) pressure for more efficient government policies in response to the external threat — positive impact. The combination of these effects would produce a non‐linear relationship with the growth rate at first increasing as milex increased and then decreasing. For the full sample of 71 countries, we found the predicted relationship, however, it is not robust to changes in the sample. The robust conclusion is that there was no evidence of a negative impact of military spending on economic growth.     

Aligning national “logics” in a European military helicopter program

This article analyzes the public side of the NH90 network consisting of four participating countries (Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands) and their industrial partners. Comparable to observations in earlier international projects in the defense sector, the development and production of the NH90 defense helicopter did not match original plans and costs estimates. On the basis of four mechanisms that were intended to facilitate the cooperation between the partnering countries (the General Memorandum of Understanding; coalition formation; the role of the central agency; and the process of vertical escalation) the question is posed whether or not there was a true alignment of national interests and “logics.” The lack of standardization, as well as program delays and issues concerning the division of the work-share, lead to the emerging alignment being characterized as “quasi-alignment” at best.