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31.
Richard B. White 《The Nonproliferation Review》2014,21(3-4):261-274
The Indian government has not made a public comment about the status of its nuclear weapon program since approving a nuclear doctrine in 2003. However, there is now enough information in the public domain to determine that the command-and-control system for the nuclear program has steadily matured in accordance with the intent of the approved nuclear doctrine. The Indian government has successfully mitigated many of the issues that plague the conventional military. The result is a basic command-and-control system that is focused only on the delivery, if ordered by the prime minister, of nuclear weapons. The system is not as robust as those of the United States and Russia, but is in place and ready as new Indian nuclear weapons enter into operation. The command-and-control system is developing to meet India's needs and political compulsions, but not necessarily as part of a more assertive nuclear policy. 相似文献
32.
We consider a multiperiod resource allocation problem, where a single resource is allocated over a finite planning horizon of T periods. Resource allocated to one period can be used to satisfy demand of that period or of future periods, but backordering of demand is not allowed. The objective is to allocate the resource as smoothly as possible throughout the planning horizon. We present two models: the first assumes that the allocation decision variables are continuous, whereas the second considers only integer allocations. Applications for such models are found, for example, in subassembly production planning for complex products in a multistage production environment. Efficient algorithms are presented to find optimal allocations for these models at an effort of O(T2). Among all optimal policies for each model, these algorithms find the one that carries the least excess resources throughout the planning horizon. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 相似文献
33.
The rise of China has been fuelled by a massive military modernisation programme relying, in large part, on the acquisition of foreign military equipment. The question of how the world’s major powers define their arms transfer policies towards China is therefore crucially important. This article makes two original contributions. First, drawing on neoclassical realism, it proposes an explanatory framework integrating international and domestic factors to explain variations in major powers’ arms transfers. Second, based on a large body of elite interviews and diplomatic cables, it offers the first comprehensive comparison of American, British, French and Russian arms transfer policies towards China since the end of the Cold War. 相似文献
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35.
Tolerance limits which control both tails of the normal distribution so that there is no more than a proportion β1 in one tail and no more than β2 in the other tail with probability γ may be computed for any size sample. They are computed from X? - k1S and X? - k2S, where X? and S are the usual sample mean and standard deviation and k1 and k2 are constants previously tabulated in Odeh and Owen [3]. The question addressed is, “Just how accurate are the coverages of these intervals (– Infin;, X? – k1S) and (X? + k2S, ∞) for various size samples?” The question is answered in terms of how widely the coverage of each tail interval differs from the corresponding required content with a given confidence γ′. 相似文献
36.
A series of independent trials is considered in which one of k ≥ 2 mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes occurs at each trial. The series terminates when m outcomes of any one type have occurred. The limiting distribution (as m → ∞) of the number of trials performed until termination is found with particular attention to the situation where a Dirichlet distribution is assigned to the k vector of probabilities for each outcome. Applications to series of races involving k runners and to spares problems in reliability modeling are discussed. The problem of selecting a stopping rule so that the probability of the series terminating on outcome i is k?1 (i.e., a “fair” competition) is also studied. Two generalizations of the original asymptotic problem are addressed. 相似文献
37.
This paper is concerned with estimating p = P(X1 < Y …, Xn < Y) or q =P (X < Y1, …, X < Yn) where the X's and Y's are all independent random variables. Applications to estimation of the reliability p from stress-strength relationships are considered where a component is subject to several stresses X1, X2, …, XN whereas its strength, Y, is a single random variable. Similarly, the reliability q is of interest where a component is made of several parts all with their individual strengths Y1, Y2 …, YN and a single stress X is applied to the component. When the X's and Y's are independent and normal, maximum likelihood estimates of p and q have been obtained. For the case N = 2 and in some special cases, minimum variance unbiased estimates have been given. When the Y's are all exponential and the X is normal with known variance, but unknown mean (or uniform between 0 and θ, θ being unknown) the minimum variance unbiased estimate of q is established in this paper. 相似文献
38.
This paper considers the problem of computing, by iterative methods, optimal policies for Markov decision processes. The policies computed are optimal for all sufficiently small interest rates. 相似文献
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Many techniques of forecasting are based upon extrapolation from time series. While such techniques have useful applications, they entail strong assumptions which are not explicitly enunciated. Furthermore, the time series approach not based on an indigenous forecast principle. The first attack from the present point of view was initiated by S. S. Wilks. Of particular interest over a wide range of operational situations in reliability, for example, is the behavior of the extremes of the Weibull and Gumbel distributions. Here we formulate forecasters for the minima of various forms of these distributions. The forecasters are determined for minimization in mean square of the distance. From n original observations the forecaster provides the minimum of the next m observations when the original distribution is maintained. For each of the forecasters developed, tables of efficiency have been calculated and included in the appendix. An explicit example has been included for one of the forecasters. Its performance has been demonstrated by the use of Monte Carlo technique. The results indicate that the forecaster can be used in practice with satisfactory results. 相似文献