The Illusion of ‘Peace Through Power-Sharing’: Constitutional Choice in the Shadow of Civil War

Conflict managers around the world cling to the hope that power-sharing decreases the risk of civil war in post-conflict societies. Distinguishing between territorial and governmental conflicts, we analyse the origin and effectiveness of power-sharing institutions (PSI) and power-sharing arrangements (PSA). Our examination reveals that power-sharing is largely a consequence of the institutional legacy and of the war outcome. While PSI such as proportional representation or federalism cannot prevent a war from recurring, PSA in the form of grand coalitions reduces this risk marginally. However, granting autonomy to a rebellious region increases the danger that the relationship with the government turns violent again. Our results suggest that constitution makers should advocate power-sharing with caution.     

Optimizing submarine berthing with a persistence incentive

Submarine berthing plans reserve mooring locations for inbound U.S. Navy nuclear submarines prior to their port entrance. Once in port, submarines may be shifted to different berthing locations to allow them to better receive services they require or to make way for other shifted vessels. However, submarine berth shifting is expensive, labor intensive, and potentially hazardous. This article presents an optimization model for submarine berth planning and demonstrates it with Naval Submarine Base, San Diego. After a berthing plan has been approved and published, changed requests for services, delays, and early arrival of inbound submarines are routine events, requiring frequent revisions. To encourage trust in the planning process, the effect on the solution of revisions in the input is kept small by incorporating a persistence incentive in the optimization model. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 301–318, 1997.     

The continuous multiple-modular design problem

In this article we extend our previous work on the continuous single-module design problem to the multiple-module case. It is assumed that there is a fixed cost associated with each additional module used. The Kuhn–Tucker conditions characterize local optima among which there is a global optimum. Modules are associated with partitions and a special class, guillotine partitions, are characterized. Branch-and-bound, partial enumeration, and heuristic procedures for finding optimum or good guillotine partitions are discussed and illustrated with examples.     

An examination of the effects of the criterion functional on optimal fire-support policies

This paper examines the dependence of the structure of optimal time-sequential fire-support policies on the quantification of military objectives by considering four specific problems, each corresponding to a different quantification of objectives (i.e. criterion functional). We consider the optimal time-sequential allocation of supporting fires during the “approach to contact” of friendly infantry against enemy defensive positions. The combat dynamics are modelled by deterministic Lanchester-type equations of warfare, and the optimal fire-support policy for each one-sided combat optimization problem is developed via optimal control theory. The problems are all nonconvex, and local optima are a particular difficulty in one of them. For the same combat dynamics, the splitting of supporting fires between two enemy forces in any optimal policy (i.e. the optimality of singular subarcs) is shown to depend only on whether the terminal payoff reflects the objective of attaining an “overall” military advantage or a “local” one. Additionally, switching times for changes in the ranking of target priorities are shown to be different (sometimes significantly) when the decision criterion is the difference and the ratio of the military worths (computed according to linear utilities) of total infantry survivors and also the difference and the ratio of the military worths (computed according to linear utilities) of total infantry survivors and also the difference and the ratio of the military worths of the combatants' total infantry losses. Thus, the optimal fire-support policy for this attack scenario is shown to be significantly influenced by the quantification of military objectives.     

An exact method for finding shortest routes on a sphere,avoiding obstacles

On the surface of a sphere, we take as inputs two points, neither of them contained in any of a number of spherical polygon obstacles, and quickly find the shortest route connecting these two points while avoiding any obstacle. The WetRoute method presented here has been adopted by the US Navy for several applications. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 374–385, 2016     

Optimizing disaster relief: Real-time operational and tactical decision support

We introduce a real-time decision support system which uses optimization methods, simulation, and the judgement of the decision maker for operational assignment of units to tasks and for tactical allocation of units to task requirements. The system, named ARES for the Greek god of war, accommodates a high degree of detail in the logistics of unit movements during operations, yet separates the assignment and allocation activities in a fashion which naturally accommodates human intervention and judgement—ARES is designed to assist the decision maker, not to replace him. ARES is demonstrated with a hypothetical scenario constructed for 14 Engineering Battalions of the Hellenic Army which are assigned 20 tasks employing 25 resource types in repairing major damage to public works following a great earthquake. (This hypothetical data was prepared prior to the earthquake in Kalamata near Athens on 13 September, 1986, and exhibits uncanny, but coincidental, resemblance to that real situation.) ARES is designed for use in real time, and quick data preparation is aided by the provision from published sources of standard data for many foreseeable tasks; this data can be quickly accessed via visual icons on a computer screen and customized for the actual work at hand. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimizing the US Navy's combat logistics force

We study how changes to the composition and employment of the US Navy combat logistic force (CLF) influence our ability to supply our navy worldwide. The CLF consists of about 30 special transport ships that carry ship and aircraft fuel, ordnance, dry stores, and food, and deliver these to client combatant ships underway, making it possible for our naval forces to operate at sea for extended periods. We have modeled CLF operations to evaluate a number of transforming initiatives that simplify its operation while supporting an even larger number of client ships for a greater variety of missions. Our input is an employment schedule for navy battle groups of ships operating worldwide, extending over a planning horizon of 90–180 days. We show how we use optimization to advise how to sustain these ships. We have used this model to evaluate new CLF ship designs, advise what number of ships in a new ship class would be needed, test concepts for forward at‐sea logistics bases in lieu of conventional ports, demonstrate the effects of changes to operating policy, and generally try to show whether and how the CLF can support planned naval operations. Published 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2008     

The Interplay of Domestic Legitimation and Foreign Relations: Contrasting Charles Taylor and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia

This article investigates legitimacy and foreign relations of Liberia’s two most important recent rulers. It argues that Charles Taylor was widely considered legitimate in Liberia and that the Weberian concept of charismatic authority best explains the popularity of the former warlord and president. Charisma, however, is tied to specific cultural contexts and Taylor’s popularity was not intelligible to Western audiences. By contrast, Johnson Sirleaf frames her policies in terms appealing to both the domestic and international audiences. As a consequence, she succeeded to attract significant foreign assistance enabling her to increase legitimacy and strengthen stability.