Military Ethics and the Situationist Critique

Many contributors to military ethics from diverse locations and philosophical perspectives maintain that virtues are central to martial theory and practice. Yet several contemporary philosophers and psychologists have recently challenged the empirical adequacy of this perspective. Their challenge is known as the situationist critique, a version of which asserts that: (a) situational features rather than character traits such as virtues cause and explain human behavior, and (b) ethical theories and development programs are empirically inadequate to the extent that they incorporate virtues. In this paper, I assess the merit of this critique and consider some implications of my assessment for military practitioners and theorists.     

ADVANCING THE GOALS OF NPT ARTICLE VI

International technical cooperation on issues relevant to the challenges of nuclear disarmament can demonstrate commitment to obligations under Article VI of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, strengthen the security of fissile materials and weapons, and develop technical approaches to support more ambitious disarmament activities in the future. Including non-nuclear weapon states would ensure that their views are taken into account and would invest them in developing solutions to key challenges. This article discusses three areas for technical cooperation that would build on past activities and that could produce such benefits as improved protection, control, and accounting of nuclear weapons and fissile material; enhanced transparency for nuclear weapon complexes; and mechanisms for international management of sensitive civilian nuclear facilities. International cooperation in each of these areas could provide a technical basis for pursuing possible future disarmament negotiations and substantively demonstrate commitment to Article VI.     

一类平面系统极限环的不存在性

在系统奇点唯一的条件下,研究了一类微分系统不存在极限环的的充分条件,运用和发展了以往的结果.     

基于仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计

针对竞争失效产品加速寿命试验存在试验时间长、费用高、效率低的问题,提出了一种基于Monte-Carlo仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计方法.采用Monte-Carlo对步降加速寿命试验进行仿真模拟,以正常使用应力下的p阶分位寿命渐进方差估计最小为目标,以各试验应力水平及对应应力下的试验截尾数作为设计变量,采用MIE理论进行统计分析,建立了基于仿真的竞争失效产品步降加速寿命试验优化设计模型.最后,通过实例分析表明:该方法具有可行性、有效性.     

时变环境下基于加速寿命试验的产品故障预测方法

针对传统可靠性模型及分析方法无法分析产品在时变环境下可靠性的缺陷,提出了时变环境应力下产品可靠性预测方法.引入比例风险模型描述产品可靠性与工作环境因素的关系,结合加速寿命试验数据,利用极大似然估计确定基准失效率函数及各环境因素协变量回归系数.在假设产品工作环境应力转换时间确定的情况下,建立了时变环境下可靠度分析模型.实例验证了该方法的有效性.     

PUBLIC SAFETY AND THE MORAL DILEMMA IN THE DEFENSE AGAINST TERROR

The economic theory of defense has traditionally described public safety as achieved through investments that deter adversaries. Deterrence is, however, ineffective and pre‐emptive defense is required when a population of intended victims confronts supreme‐value suicide terror. A moral dilemma then arises, since pre‐emption may impose collective punishment, while in the absence of pre‐emption the population of intended victims is exposed to acts of terror. We consider how a population of intended terror victims confronts the moral dilemma, and compare the threatened population's response with the public‐safety recommendations of external judges who are not personally affected by the threat of terror.     

Ridge regression analysis of the defence‐growth tradeoff in the United States

An examination of past analyses suggests that today's sailors may be less responsive to compensation changes than previous generations. Such a change could make recruiting and retaining high‐quality sailors more difficult. However, variation in researchers' decisions over time may simply have created the appearance of such a change. Our results suggest there is little variation in the pay elasticity over time. In contrast, the different reduced‐form models we use to measure this relationship can explain most of the variation in the literature. Therefore, the evidence suggests that while sailors may have changed over time, their response to compensation has not.     

Minimizing Public Sector Corruption: The Economics of Crime,Identity Economics,and Money Laundering

Abstract

This paper offers a simple strategic framework to help governments identify various policy mechanisms to minimize public sector corruption. The paper offers a formal model that blends the economics of crime with identity economics and money laundering. It presents a partial equilibrium framework that focuses on a representative public official engaged in a mix of legal and illegal effort. The model introduces various levers a government might use to impact the costs and benefits of illegal effort. The ultimate goal is to help turn volatile vicious cycles of political instability, into steady virtuous cycles of stability, growth, and sustainable development.     

SPEED BUMP ON THE ROAD TO GLOBAL ZERO

The prospect of the United States continuing to reduce the size of its nuclear arsenal to “very low numbers” has raised questions in Japan and South Korea, where US extended deterrence guarantees are premised on the “nuclear umbrella.” In both countries, however, concerns focus less on numerical arsenal size than on the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet evolving threats and on the degree of broader US commitment to these alliances. This article assesses developments in US-Japan and US-South Korea relationships in response to the Obama administration's nuclear disarmament policies, focusing on how the evolutionary course of those relationships may in turn condition prospects for sustaining this US nuclear policy direction. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term, but also that US nuclear arsenal size is secondary to broader political, strategic, and military factors in meeting these challenges. The evaluation concludes that strong alliance relationships and strategic stability in East Asia can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, but also that deterioration of these relationships could imperil core US nuclear policy and nonproliferation objectives.