Modeling the operation of multireservoir systems using decomposition and stochastic dynamic programming

Stochastic dynamic programming models are attractive for multireservoir control problems because they allow non‐linear features to be incorporated and changes in hydrological conditions to be modeled as Markov processes. However, with the exception of the simplest cases, these models are computationally intractable because of the high dimension of the state and action spaces involved. This paper proposes a new method of determining an operating policy for a multireservoir control problem that uses stochastic dynamic programming, but is practical for systems with many reservoirs. Decomposition is first used to reduce the problem to a number of independent subproblems. Each subproblem is formulated as a low‐dimensional stochastic dynamic program and solved to determine the operating policy for one of the reservoirs in the system. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

巡航导弹强弱点分析及防御方法

巡航导弹具有突防能力强、命中精度高、灵活性强、技术上易于实现和造价低等优点而备受各个国家重视,已经发展成为现代战争的重要武器,是上世纪90年代以后的主要空中作战目标之一.对巡航导弹的强点与弱点进行了分析,并研究了防御巡航导弹的可行方法.     

结构振动系统的模态解耦控制

基于特征结构配置的参数化结果,给出了实现结构振动系统模态解耦的充要条件,导出了期望的反馈增益阵及闭环特征向量矩阵的全体参数化表示。该方法在实现模态解耦的同时,还提供了全部自由度,可用来实现系统设计中某些性能要求。该方法直接基于原系统的参数矩阵,便于工程应用。三级质量弹簧系统的实例表明该方法有效。     

Efficient multinomial selection in simulation

Consider a simulation experiment consisting of v independent vector replications across k systems, where in any given replication one system is selected as the best performer (i.e., it wins). Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning in any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. The classical multinomial selection procedure of Bechhofer, Elmaghraby, and Morse (Procedure BEM) prescribes a minimum number of replications, denoted as v*, so that the probability of correctly selecting the true best system (PCS) meets or exceeds a prespecified probability. Assuming that larger is better, Procedure BEM selects as best the system having the largest value of the performance measure in more replications than any other system. We use these same v* replications across k systems to form (v*)^k pseudoreplications that contain one observation from each system, and develop Procedure AVC (All Vector Comparisons) to achieve a higher PCS than with Procedure BEM. For specific small-sample cases and via a large-sample approximation we show that the PCS with Procedure AVC exceeds the PCS with Procedure BEM. We also show that with Procedure AVC we achieve a given PCS with a smaller v than the v* required with Procedure BEM. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 459–482, 1998     

Planning accelerated life tests for censored two‐parameter exponential distributions

We consider optimal test plans involving life distributions with failure‐free life, i.e., where there is an unknown threshold parameter below which no failure will occur. These distributions do not satisfy the regularity conditions and thus the usual approach of using the Fisher information matrix to obtain an optimal accelerated life testing (ALT) plan cannot be applied. In this paper, we assume that lifetime follows a two‐parameter exponential distribution and the stress‐life relationship is given by the inverse power law model. Near‐optimal test plans for constant‐stress ALT under both failure‐censoring and time‐censoring are obtained. We first obtain unbiased estimates for the parameters and give the approximate variance of these estimates for both failure‐censored and time‐censored data. Using these results, the variance for the approximate unbiased estimate of a percentile at a design stress is computed and then minimized to produce the near‐optimal plan. Finally, a numerical example is presented together with simulation results to study the accuracy of the approximate variance given by the proposed plan and show that it outperforms the equal‐allocation plan. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 169–186, 1999     

Inference for the maximum cell probability under multinomial sampling

This article investigates inference for p_max, the largest cell probability in multinomial trials for the case of a small to moderate number of trials. Emphasis focuses on point and interval estimation. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are developed. The results of extensive simulation investigation are included as well as the analysis of a set of crime data for the city of New Orleans taken from the National Crime Survey.     

Parallel machine replacement

We consider the parallel replacement problem in which there are both fixed and variable costs associated with replacing machines. Increasing maintenance costs motivate replacements, and the fixed replacement cost provides incentive for replacing machines of different ages together in “clusters.” We prove two intuitive results for this problem. First, it is never optimal to split a cluster of like-aged machines, and second, it is never optimal to replace newer clusters before older clusters. By incorporating these two results into an algorithmic approach, we vastly reduce the amount of computation required to identify an optimal replacement policy.     

A game with distorted information

This article considers a two-person game in which the first player has access to certain information that is valuable but unknown to the second player. The first player can distort the information before it is passed on to the second player. The purpose in distorting the information is to render it as useless as possible to the second player. Based on the distorted information received, the second player then maximizes some given objective. In certain cases he may still be able to use the distorted information, but sometimes the information has been so badly distorted that it becomes completely useless to him. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.