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The problem of computing reliability and availability and their associated confidence limits for multi-component systems has appeared often in the literature. This problem arises where some or all of the component reliabilities and availabilities are statistical estimates (random variables) from test and other data. The problem of computing confidence limits has generally been considered difficult and treated only on a case-by-case basis. This paper deals with Bayes confidence limits on reliability and availability for a more general class of systems than previously considered including, as special cases, series-parallel and standby systems applications. The posterior distributions obtained are exact in theory and their numerical evaluation is limited only by computing resources, data representation and round-off in calculations. This paper collects and generalizes previous results of the authors and others. The methods presented in this paper apply both to reliability and availability analysis. The conceptual development requires only that system reliability or availability be probabilities defined in terms acceptable for a particular application. The emphasis is on Bayes Analysis and the determination of the posterior distribution functions. Having these, the calculation of point estimates and confidence limits is routine. This paper includes several examples of estimating system reliability and confidence limits based on observed component test data. Also included is an example of the numerical procedure for computing Bayes confidence limits for the reliability of a system consisting of N failure independent components connected in series. Both an exact and a new approximate numerical procedure for computing point and interval estimates of reliability are presented. A comparison is made of the results obtained from the two procedures. It is shown that the approximation is entirely sufficient for most reliability engineering analysis. 相似文献
53.
Robert F. Love 《海军后勤学研究》1969,16(4):503-516
We consider the problem of simultaneously locating any number of facilities in three-dimensional Euclidean space. The criterion to be satisfied is that of minimizing the total cost of some activity between the facilities to be located and any number of fixed locations. Any amount of activity may be present between any pair of the facilities themselves. The total cost is assumed to be a linear function of the inter-facility and facility-to-fixed locations distances. Since the total cost function for this problem is convex, a unique optimal solution exists. Certain discontinuities are shown to exist in the derivatives of the total cost function which previously has prevented the successful use of gradient computing methods for locating optimal solutions. This article demonstrates the use of a created function which possesses all the necessary properties for ensuring the convergence of first order gradient techniques and is itself uniformly convergent to the actual objective function. Use of the fitted function and the dual problem in the case of constrained problems enables solutions to be determined within any predetermined degree of accuracy. Some computation results are given for both constrained and unconstrained problems. 相似文献
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Robert Roeloffs 《海军后勤学研究》1967,14(4):461-471
An analysis is made of the problem of finding optimal schedules for checking an operating unit subject to random failure detectable only by inspection of the unit. It is assumed that only partial information, in the form of .a single percentile of the otherwise unknown life distribution of the unit, is available. In a previous paper [5] some results were given for the case with a finite time horizon. Tn this work it is assumed that tne unit is replaceable at will with a new, statistically identical unit, and the horizon is infinite. 相似文献
55.
The exact expression is derived for the average stationary cost of a (Q,R) inventory system with lost sales, unit Poisson demands, Erlang-distributed lead times, fixed order cost, fixed cost per unit lost sale, linear holding cost per unit time, and a maximum of one order outstanding. Explicit expressions for the state probabilities and a fast method of calculating them are obtained for the case of Q greater than R. Exponential lead times are analyzed as a special case. A simple cyclic coordinate search procedure is used to locate the minimum cost policy. Examples of the effect of lead time variability on costs are given. 相似文献
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Robert C. Gray 《Defense & Security Analysis》1998,14(2):199-204
A Study of War by Quincy Wright, Second edition. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1965, 1,637 pp. 相似文献
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