COIN fights: A response to Etzioni

Etzioni both exaggerates and minimizes the influence of my book Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife on different components of US military doctrine, mischaracterizes my treatment of the Malayan Emergency, and unfairly denigrates the successes of counterinsurgency in Iraq from 2007 to 2011 while misattributing the reasons for its failures in both Iraq and Afghanistan.     

General solution to many-on-many heterogeneous stochastic combat

Stochastic combat models are more realistic than either deterministic or exponential models. Stochastic combat models have been solved analytically only for small combat sizes. It is very difficult, if not impossible, to extend previous solution techniques to larger-scale combat. This research provides the solution for many-on-many heterogeneous stochastic combat with any break points. Furthermore, every stage in stochastic combat is clearly defined and associated aiming and killing probabilities are calculated. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The advantage of deeper pockets in Silverman's game on intervals

Silverman's game on (1, B) × (1, B) was analyzed by R. J. Evans, who showed that optimal strategies exist (and found them) only on a set of measure zero in the parameter plane. We examine the corresponding game on (1, B) × (1, D) with D > B, and show that optimal strategies exist in about half the parameter plane. Optimal strategies and game value are obtained explicitly. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The reliability of a series system of repairable subsystems: A bayesian approach

Consider the problem of estimating the reliability of a series system of (possibly) repairable subsystems when test data and historical information are available at the component, subsystem, and system levels. Such a problem is well suited to a Bayesian approach. Martz, Waller, and Fickas [Technometrics, 30 , 143–154 (1988)] presented a Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail (binomial) data at any level. However, other types of test data are often available, including (a) lifetimes of nonrepayable components, and (b) repair histories for repairable subsystems. In this article we describe a new Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail, life, and repair data at any level. We assume a Weibull model for the life data, a censored Weibull model for the pass/fail data, and a power-law process model for the repair data. Consequently, the test data at each level can be represented by a two-parameter likelihood function of a certain form, and historical information can be expressed using a conjugate family of prior distributions. We discuss computational issues, and use the procedure to analyze the reliability of a vehicle system. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Jointly constrained order quantities with all-units discounts

In this article we investigate situations where the buyer is offered discounted price schedules from alternative vendors. Given various discount schedules, the buyer must make the best buying decision under a variety of constraints, such as limited storage space and restricted inventory budgets. Solutions to this problem can be utilized by the buyer to improve profitability. EOQ models for multiple products with all-units discounts are readily solvable in the absence of constraints spanning the products. However, constrained discounted EOQ models lack convenient mathematical properties. Relaxing the product-spanning constraints produces a dual problem that is separable, but lack of convexity and smoothness opens the door for duality gaps. In this research we present a set of algorithms that collectively find the optimal order vector. Finally, we present numerical examples using actual data. to illustrate the application of the algorithms. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A dynamic general linear model for inference from accelerated life tests

We present a new approach for inference from accelerated life tests. Our approach is based on a dynamic general linear model setup which arises naturally from the accelerated life-testing problem and uses linear Bayesian methods for inference. The advantage of the procedure is that it does not require large numbers of items to be tested and that it can deal with both censored and uncensored data. We illustrate the use of our approach with some actual accelerated life-test data. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Performance of N machine centers of K-out-of-M: G type maintained by a single repairman

We consider a system of N (nonsymmetric) machine centers of the K-out-of-M : G type that are maintained by a single repairman. [A machine center functions if and only if at least K of the M machines belonging to the center are good (G).] Such systems are commonly found in various manufacturing and service industries. A stochastic model is developed that accommodates generally distributed repair times and repairman walk times, and most repair scheduling disciplines. K-out-of-M : G type systems also appear as a modeling paradigm in reliability analysis and polling systems performance analysis. Several performance measures are derived for machine-repair systems having K-out-of-M-type centers. A simple example system is developed in detail that exposes the computations involved in modeling applications. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Scheduling on a single machine with a single breakdown to minimize stochastically the number of tardy jobs

Jobs with known processing times and due dates have to be processed on a machine which is subject to a single breakdown. The moment of breakdown and the repair time are independent random variables. Two cases are distinguished with reference to the processing time preempted by the breakdown (no other preemptions are allowed): (i) resumption without time losses and (ii) restart from the beginning. Under certain compatible conditions, we find the policies which minimize stochastically the number of tardy jobs.