Concept costing for defence projects: the problem and its solution

It is intrinsic to the nature of military competition that the unit acquisition costs of defence systems rise generation by generation. Traditional “bottom‐up” methods of cost‐estimating cannot meet the increasing demands for extensive studies of many options before commencing design and, while “top‐down” estimating techniques are an improvement, in particular by reducing the time required for preparing estimates, they also are inadequate to meet current requirements. A new method has been devised, therefore, further developing “top‐down” methods using Bayesian techniques to make best use of the available information, whether certain or uncertain, and its accuracy established by example.     

Excess capacity in weapons production: An empirical analysis∗ †

This paper analyzes a set of observations by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on individual weapons systems regarding whether large amounts of excess capacity exist and whether short run average cost (SRAC) appears to be severely decreasing. It is shown that the amount of excess capacity and steepness of SRAC are essentially independent of output rate. It is then argued that this suggests that production is occurring in inefficiently large plants—i.e.—off the long run cost curve.     

The artful use of national power: Portuguese Angola (1961–1974)

In its colony of Angola, Portugal during its colonial wars (1961–1974) was able to exploit the economic dependence and divided population loyalties of its hostile neighbours the Congo and Zambia as well as the cleavages within the nationalist movements to prevent a crippling insurgency. The rulers of both countries were largely dependent on Angola for trade, and were eager to have the side effects of the robust Angolan economy with its 11% annual growth brush off on their own moribund ones. While relationships were never comfortable, the sponsors of revolution were forced to reign in their ‘freedom fighters’ in order to maintain the functioning of their export-dependent economies. Portuguese leadership also played a vital role, as it was able to bring together diverse elements of national power in a concerted policy for dealing with these enemies, whether they were insurgents or their sanctuary countries. This policy of leveraging national power and playing on the vulnerabilities of its opponents worked well during its war in Angola and still holds valuable lessons for countries that find themselves in similar circumstances.     

Baixa do Cassang: Ending the abuse of Portuguese Africans

On 4 January 1961 in Baixa do Cassange, in the north of Angola, the blacks who worked in the cotton fields began a strike. The army with air support was called to quell the rebellion, and the article emphasizes the importance of air support tethered to the ground forces, particularly in a remote and vast area of operations in the tropical rainy season. In this case, the support originally came in the form a squadron of Lockheed PV-2 Harpoons from Luanda, some 300 kilometers away. These open-ocean reconnaissance aircraft and their crews were ill-suited for the task. When this became apparent, four small Auster D5/160s were relocated from Negage to Malange, among the ground forces. The Austers flew reconnaissance missions over the troubled zones, dropped provisions and messages to the advancing ground forces, and served as a backup communications link. When the strike ceased after three weeks, the Austers assumed a humanitarian role in support of the starving population. The conclusion is that air support to ground forces is indispensable, must be properly tailored to the job, and must operate as an integral part of the ground forces.     

‘The only good jihadist is a dead jihadist’:Boko Haram and de-radicalization around Lake Chad

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the shortcomings of the “de-radicalization doctrine” in sub-Saharan Africa. The issues raised are illustrated by the war against Boko Haram, which involves Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Relying on interviews with security officers, insurgents, civil servants, displaced people, humanitarian workers and Muslim and Christian clerics in Nigeria, Niger and Chad since 2005, the investigation shows that the four states focused on repression rather than demobilisation programs in prison or outdoors. The Boko Haram crisis is mainly a story of mismanagement. The article thus challenges the assumptions of the “de-radicalization doctrine” in Muslim Africa South of the Sahara. First, attempts to de-radicalize jihadi terrorists tend to focus too much on religious fanaticism and the exegesis of the Quran. Secondly, they are neither feasible nor efficient. Finally, they obscure priorities that are more important to counter extremism and demobilize insurgents.     

A lost sales (S — 1, S) perishable inventory system with renewal demand

This article analyzes a one-to-one ordering perishable inventory model with renewal demands and exponential lifetimes. The leadtimes are independently and exponentially distributed and the demands that occur during stock out periods are lost. Although the items are assumed to decay at a constant rate, the output process is not renewal and the Markov renewal techniques are successfully employed to obtain the operating characteristics. The problem of minimizing the long run expected cost rate is discussed and numerical values of optimal stock level are also provided. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Static and dynamic scheduling of customer arrivals to a single-server system

In this article we consider a single-server system whose customers arrive by appointments only. Both static and dynamic scheduling problems are studied. In static scheduling problems, one considers scheduling a finite number of customer arrivals, assuming there is no scheduled customer arrival to the system. In dynamic scheduling problems, one considers scheduling one customer arrival only, assuming that there are a number of scheduled customers already. The expected delay time is recursively computed in terms of customer interarrival times for both cases. The objective is to minimize the weighted customer delay time and the server completion time. The problem is formulated as a set of nonlinear equations. Various numerical examples are illustrated. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Properties of a three-dimensional estimator

A large-scale simulation was conducted to investigate the statistical properties and the suitability of an estimator that estimates the coordinates of a three-dimensional source, according to the angles at which several observers view the source. The estimator uses a heuristical averaging method of estimates obtained from the solution of six two-dimensional problems that utilize line-to-point transformations. The estimator was found to be approximately unbiased with low standard deviations for normal error distributions. An effective and easy-to-use forecasting formula was developed to forecast the parameters of the distributions of the estimates. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Employment and utilization of engineers among defense contractors

Defense contractors retain engineers for two reasons. First, engineers work on current-period production contracts. Second, engineers conduct independent research and development (IR&D) and write bids and proposals (B&P) for future contracts. The amount of IR&D/B&P activity, however, understates the amount of effort devoted to learning that reduces the cost of future production. Even some engineers who work on current-period production may engage in learning, as a by-product of their efforts. This article develops and implements a model for estimating the volume of learning activity undertaken by four large manufacturers of military aircraft. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.