Why did Sudan Lose a small war in Southern Sudan?

ABSTRACT

When on the wrong end of an asymmetry in the projection of hard power, weaker sides countenance the grim arithmetic of avoiding direct and massed confrontations. Invariably, insurgents have over the ages tended to employ indirect tactical methods to render their stronger opponents ineffective. Ultimately – interest asymmetry, regime type, asymmetries of strategy, and external intervention – combine in a complex interplay and pattern, to militate against a strong side. In Sudan, these factors interacted throughout the civil wars to produce regional autonomy and finally an independent South Sudan in 2011. Similar strategic logic had confronted many large African states battling insurgencies in Ethiopia, Angola, Nigeria, Zaire, and apartheid-era South Africa. Oftentimes, weakening public resolve has caused these governments to accommodate, capitulate or withdraw even if they try not to blink. Notwithstanding the regime type, it can be concluded that the majority of strong actors are prone to fail in a protracted, asymmetric conflict. Hence, the notion of linking victory in counterinsurgency to the degree of openness (democratic polyarchies); or closeness (totalitarianism) – is still valid but highly contestable in the case of Africa’s large dysfunctional states.     

International armaments collaboration and the limits of reform

Budgetary pressures have driven a steady expansion of armaments collaboration projects internationally. This has also been the case in Europe where it is estimated that currently one-fifth of European procurement budgets are spent on collaborative weapons systems and the European Defence Agency has the long-term objective of increasing this figure by over 50%. The purpose of this article is to assess whether collaborative armaments projects can offer the benefits frequently attributed to them. To this end, the study examines the five combat aircraft projects that European states have collaboratively undertaken since the 1950s.     

One size does not fit all: personalized incentives in military compensation

A critical element in implementing a compensation scheme including nonmonetary incentives (NMIs) is recognizing that preferences vary widely across Service members. There are at least three sources of variability: across different population classes, across individuals within a population class, and across NMI packages for a particular individual. Surveys across different military communities, ranks, and years of Service show the difficulty of identifying any NMI that has significant value for even 50% of the active duty force. At the same time, approximately 80% of the surveyed Service members expressed a significant positive value for at least one NMI. Therefore, one-size-fits-all incentive packages will not be nearly as effective as more personalized incentive packages. The authors discuss variability in Service member NMI preferences and outline an approach to implementing personalized NMI packages in military compensation through a sealed-bid reverse auction, where Service members select individual NMIs from a “cafeteria-style” menu of options.     

Scheduling workers in a constricted area

A generalization of the equi-partitioning problem, termed the 2D-Partition Problem, is formulated. The motivation is an aircraft maintenance scheduling problem with the following characteristics. The complete maintenance overhaul of a single aircraft requires the completion of some 350 tasks. These tasks require a varying number of technicians working at the same time. For large subsets of these 350 tasks, the constraining resource is physical space—tasks must be completed in a physical space of limited size such as the cockpit. Furthermore, there is no precedence relationship among the tasks. For each subset, the problem is to schedule the tasks to minimize makespan. Let m denote the maximum number of technicians that can work at the same time in the physical area under consideration. We present optimization algorithms for m = 2 and 3. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An evaluation of scheduling heuristics for dynamic single-processor scheduling with early/tardy costs

In an endeavor to broaden the application of scheduling models to decisions involving the use of a manager's time we use simulation to investigate the performance of a number of simple algorithms (including eight priority rules and a construction heuristic) in a dynamic setting with tasks arriving (randomly) and scheduling decisions being made, over time. We compare these simple methods relative to a bound that uses an adjacent pairwise interchange algorithm. We model uncertainty in task durations, and costs being incurred for early and tardy task completion (representative of JIT settings). In addition to evaluating the efficacy of the scheduling rules and various preemption strategies (using ANOVA), we highlight the managerial implications of the effects of eight environmental parameters. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An exact algorithm for the maximal covering problem

This article develops a robust, exact algorithm for the maximal covering problem (MCP) using dual-based solution methods and greedy heuristics in branch and bound. Based on tests using randomly generated problems with problem parameters similar to those in the existing literature, the hybrid approach developed in this work appears to be effective over a wide range of MCP model parameters. The method is further validated on problems constructed from three real-world data sets. The extensive computational study compares the new method with other existing exact methods using problems that are as big, or larger than, those used in previous work on MCP. The results show that the proposed method is effective in most instances of MCP. In particular, it is shown that bounding schemes using Lagrangian relaxation are effective on MCP as a method of obtaining both exact and heuristic solutions. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A new polynomial algorithm for maximum value flow with an efficient parallel implementation

A new algorithm is presented for finding maximal and maximum value flows in directed single-commodity networks. Commonly algorithms developed for this problem find a maximal flow by gradually augmenting (increasing) a feasible flow to a maximal flow. In the presented algorithm, at the beginning of each step or iteration, the flow on arcs is assigned to flow capacity. This may lead to an infeasible flow violating flow conservation at some nodes. During two passes of a MAIN step, consisting of a forward pass and a backward pass, the flow is reduced on some arcs to regain feasibility. The network is then pruned by omitting saturated arcs, and the process is repeated. The parallel implementation of the algorithm applies the two main steps at the same time to the same network. The outputs of the two steps are compared and the processing continues with the higher feasible flow. The algorithm is simple, intuitive, and efficient. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

On estimating survival for reliability models based on age-related stochastic comparisons

A new class of nonparametric reliability models is introduced and studied. A distribution is said to be better at age s than at age t (sBt) if the residual lifetime at age s is stochastically greater than or equal to the residual lifetime at age t. Applications to various forms of replacement policies, including the cannibalization of failed systems, are noted. For fixed s < t, the problem of estimating a survival curve assumed to belong to the sBt class is addressed using recursive methods. An sBt estimator is derived in closed form, and its uniform strong consistency at an optimal rate of convergence is demonstrated. A simulation study strongly supports the claim that the sBt estimator tends to outperform the empirical survivor function in small- and moderate-size samples. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.