The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt

Egypt plays a pivotal role in the security of the Middle East as the doorway to Europe and its military expenditure reflects its involvement in the machinations of such an unstable region, showing considerable variation over the last 40?years. These characteristics make it a particularly interesting case study of the determinants of military spending. This paper specifies and estimates an econometric model of the Egyptian demand for military spending, taking into account important strategic and political factors. Both economic and strategic factors are found to play a role in determining military burden/spending, with clear positive effects of lagged military burden, suggesting some sort of institutional inertia, plus negative output and net exports effects. The strategic effect as a result of the impact of Israel’s military burden is mostly positive and significant, though its impact is reduced when the impact of important strategic events are taken into account. The military spending of Egypt’s allies Jordan and Syria generally seems to have had no effect on Egypt’s spending. These results are consistent over a range of econometric techniques.     

The resource constrained project scheduling problem with multiple crashable modes: An exact solution method

We introduce a formulation and an exact solution method for a nonpreemptive resource constrained project scheduling problem in which the duration/cost of an activity is determined by the mode selection and the duration reduction (crashing) within the mode. This problem is a natural combination of the time/cost tradeoff problem and the resource constrained project scheduling problem. It involves the determination, for each activity, of its resource requirements, the extent of crashing, and its start time so that the total project cost is minimized. We present a branch and bound procedure and report computational results with a set of 160 problems. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of our procedure. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 107–127, 2001     

Note: Optimal allocation of resources to nodes of series systems with respect to failure-rate ordering

Allocation of spare components in a system in order to optimize the lifetime of the system with respect to a suitable criterion is of considerable interest in reliability, engineering, industry, and defense. We consider the problem of allocation of K active spares to a series system of independent and identical components in order to optimize the failure-rate function of the system. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Emulating US Counterinsurgency Doctrine: Barriers for Developing Country Forces,Evidence from Peru

ABSTRACT

Recent US advances in counterinsurgency doctrine have been adopted by developing country armed forces. Nevertheless, no systematic study has examined the barriers they face to implementing highly involved counterinsurgency strategy. Tracing the evolution of Peruvian doctrine demonstrates that Peru was able to quickly improve the unity of effort, intelligence capacity, and military basing to meet the demands of a population-centric hearts-and-minds approach to counterinsurgency. Nevertheless, the limited tactical initiative and flexibility of Peruvian forces remains a challenge. The Peruvian experience is instructive for other militaries undergoing similar transitions. However, given the diversity of insurgent conflicts, this doctrine is not universally appropriate.     

Network reliability assessment in a random environment

In this paper we consider networks that consist of components operating under a randomly changing common environment. Our work is motivated by power system networks that are subject to fluctuating weather conditions over time that affect the performance of the network. We develop a general setup for any network that is subject to such environment and present results for network reliability assessment under two repair scenarios. We also present Bayesian analysis of network failure data and illustrate how reliability predictions can be obtained for the network. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 574–591, 2003     

Two‐stage component test plans for testing the reliability of a series system

A system reliability is often evaluated by individual tests of components that constitute the system. These component test plans have advantages over complete system based tests in terms of time and cost. In this paper, we consider the series system with n components, where the lifetime of the i‐th component follows exponential distribution with parameter λ_i. Assuming test costs for the components are different, we develop an efficient algorithm to design a two‐stage component test plan that satisfies the usual probability requirements on the system reliability and in addition minimizes the maximum expected cost. For the case of prior information in the form of upper bounds on λ_i's, we use the genetic algorithm to solve the associated optimization problems which are otherwise difficult to solve using mathematical programming techniques. The two‐stage component test plans are cost effective compared to single‐stage plans developed by Rajgopal and Mazumdar. We demonstrate through several numerical examples that our approach has the potential to reduce the overall testing costs significantly. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 49: 95–116, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.1051     

A branch and bound algorithm for solving a class of nonlinear integer programming problems

This article presents a branch and bound method for solving the problem of minimizing a separable concave function over a convex polyhedral set where the variables are restricted to be integer valued. Computational results are reported.     

Warranty design under buyer and seller risk aversion

This paper provides a framework in which warranty policies for non-repairable items can be evaluated according to risk preferences of both buyers and sellers. In particular, a warranty price schedule is established such that sellers are indifferent among the policies. Given this schedule, a buyer's response is expressed by selecting the price-warranty combination that minimizes disutility. Within this framework, a warranty can be viewed as an instrumet of risk management that can induce more sales and greater profitability. For given utility functions, analytical results for the development of a price schedule are developed. Numerical results illustrate the substitution effects between warranty terms, prices, and risk parameters.     

Successive approximation in separable programming: An improved procedure for convex separable programs

We implement a solution procedure for general convex separable programs where a series of relatively small piecewise linear programs are solved as opposed to a single large one, and where, based on bound calculations developed in [13] and [14], the ranges of linearization are systematically reduced for successive programs. The procedure inherits ε-convergence to the global optimum in a finite number of steps, but perhaps its most distinct feature is the rigorous way in which ranges containing an optimal solution are reduced from iteration to iteration. This paper describes the procedure, called successive approximation, discusses its convergence, tightness of the bounds, bound-calculation overhead, and its robustness. It presents a computer implementation to demonstrate its effectiveness for general problems and compares it (1) with the more standard separable programming approach and (2) with one of the recent augmented Lagrangian methods [10] included in a comprehensive study of nonlinear programming codes [12]. It seems clear from over 130 cases resulting from 80 distinct problems studied here that significant savings in terms of computational effort can be realized by a judicious use of the procedure, and the ease with which it can be used is appreciably increased by the robustness it shows. Moreover, for most of these problems, the advantage increases as the size, nonlinearity, and the degree of desired accuracy increase. Other important benefits include significantly smaller storage requirements, the ability to estimate the error in the current solution, and to terminate the algorithm as soon as the acceptable level of accuracy has been achieved. Problems requiring up to about 10,000 nonzero elements in their specification and about 45,000 nonzero elements in the generated separable programs resulting from up to 70 original nonlinear variables and 70 nonlinear constraints are included in the computations.     

The interactive fixed charge linear programming problem

In many decision-making situations, each activity that can be undertaken may have associated with it both a fixed and a variable cost. Recently, we have encountered serveral practical problems in which the fixed cost of undertaking an activity depends upon which other activities are also undertaken. To our knowledge, no existing optimization model can accomodate such a fixed cost structure. To do so, we have therefore developed a new model called the interactive fixed charge linear programming problem (IFCLP). In this paper we present and motivate problem (IFCLP), study some of its characteristics, and present a finite branch and bound algorithm for solving it. We also discuss the main properties of this algorithm.