TERRORIST THREATS AND TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL

Previous research has shown that the duration of a civil war is in part a function of how it ends: in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement. We present a model of how protagonists in a civil war choose to stop fighting. Hypotheses derived from this theory relate the duration of a civil war to its outcome as well as characteristics of the civil war and the civil war nation. Findings from a competing risk model reveal that the effects of predictors on duration vary according to whether the conflict ended in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement.     

Nonparametric bayesian lifetime data analysis using dirichlet process lognormal mixture model

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian lifetime data analysis method using the Dirichlet process mixture model with a lognormal kernel. A simulation‐based algorithm that implements the Gibbs sampling is developed to fit the Dirichlet process lognormal mixture (DPLNM) model using rightly censored failure time data. Five examples are used to illustrate the proposed method, and the DPLNM model is compared to the Dirichlet process Weibull mixture (DPWM) model. Results indicate that the DPLNM model is capable of estimating different lifetime distributions. The DPLNM model outperforms the DPWM model in all the examples, and the DPLNM model shows promising potential to be applied to analyze failure time data when an appropriate parametric model for the data cannot be specified. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

党的群众路线在南梁革命根据地的光辉实践

以刘志丹、谢子长、习仲勋为代表的共产党人领导创建了以南梁为中心的陕甘边革命根据地。他们始终坚持把建立人民政权、维护人民群众利益作为革命的根本目的,坚定不移地走群众路线,坚持密切联系群众、关心群众疾苦、维护群众利益,充分相信群众、紧紧依靠群众,选举群众代表参与政府重要工作、参加政权建设和社会事务管理,形成了“只见公仆不见官”的和谐生动局面。在党的群众路线指引下,南梁革命根据地的广大人民群众义无反顾地参加革命、支持革命,支援、帮助各级党组织和人民军队开展革命斗争,为中国革命的胜利做出了重大贡献。     

Investigation of the shock compression behaviors of Al/PTFE composites with experimental and a 3D mesoscale-model

The responses of AI/PTFE reactive materials (RMs) under shock compression were investigated by a single-stage gas gun.A 3D mesoscale-model was established based on micro-computed tomography(micro-CT) slice images and confirmed with experimental results.In the high-pressure stage,the com-posites reacted partially,whereas there were no deviations between the partially reacted Hugoniot and the inert simulation results.The simulation reveals that the Teflon matrix melting on the high shock pressure.Melts and decomposition of the PTFE accelerated the diffusion of the atoms.Thus,the reactions of the Al/PrFE composites are more like a combustion rather than a detonation.     

基于DIFHA算子的动态直觉模糊多属性群决策方法

动态决策问题是现实中的一类常见问题。在提出动态直觉模糊混合平均(D IFHA)算子的基础之上,提供一种动态直觉模糊多属性群决策方法。该方法能同时考虑决策过程的阶段性和属性值位置对决策结果的影响,并较好地处理决策过程中的定性指标。分析和算例证实该方法的可行性和实用性。     

Analysis of a two-component series system with a geometric process model

In this article, a geometric process model is introduced for the analysis of a two-component series system with one repairman. For each component, the successive operating times form a decreasing geometric process with exponential distribution, whereas the consecutive repair times constitute an increasing geometric process with exponential distribution, but the replacement times form a renewal process with exponential distribution. By introducing two supplementary variables, a set of partial differential equations is derived. These equations can be solved analytically or numerically. Further, the availability and the rate of occurrence of failure of the system are also determined. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

具有拟周期外力的非自治发展方程的时滞惯性流形与近似惯性流形

研究了一类具有拟周期外力的非自治发展方程,通过延伸相平面将非自治系统转化为自治系统,再证明相应的自治系统的时滞惯性流形的存在性,并在时滞惯性流形的基础上构造了非自治发展方程的近似惯性流形。     

基于Monte Carlo仿真的武器装备贡献度评估法

为了更加科学、准确地对武器装备贡献度进行评估,从装备体系的角度出发,立足于作战任务实际,充分体现信息化条件下空战过程的随机性,提出了一种基于Monte Carlo仿真的武器装备贡献度评估法。对典型空中作战场景进行了任务阶段划分。提出了能够准确描述作战能力的指标项,建立了能够反映能力指标项的随机矩阵。并以拦截空中目标为作战背景,运用Monte Carlo仿真进行了验证,得出了与实际结果一致的结论。为武器装备的装备贡献度评估提供了理论支撑和方法模型。