MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA: COMMENT AND RECONSIDERATION

In a recent paper in this journal, Wijewerra and Webb study the connection between military spending and gross domestic product (GDP) in a group of five South Asian countries, finding a small but statistically significant positive relationship between military spending and GDP. This paper reviews their approach and proposes an alternative which tries to deal with the problems of omitted variables and variable construction. It finds, in contrast, that a higher share of military spending in GDP is associated with lower growth of GDP per capita.     

A Note on the Effect of Terrorism on Economic Sentiment

This study documents that unforeseen events like terrorist attacks can be linked to the formation of Economic Sentiment after controlling for sentiment’s economic drivers. By utilizing dynamic panel techniques, the Economic Sentiment Indicator, as well as one of its constituents Consumer Sentiment, for a pan-European panel of 27 countries appear to be negatively influenced by terrorism activity. Moreover, these negative effects are significant only in the post-9/11 era.     

On the nature and scope of defence economics

Defence economics uses the tools of economics to study the defence sector and its domestic and international implications. Simple models require careful application in defence economics, since indirect effects may have counterintuitive impacts. For example, while certain arms races can lead to the outbreak of war, others may have the counterintuitive effect of discouraging the outbreak of war owing to mutual deterrence.

The world is now multipolar rather than bipolar, analogous to an oligopoly situation. This multipolar world can be analyzed by a qualitative characteristic function, where the formation of a potential coalition allows study of the shift from conflict to cooperation in international relations. Some new issues to be considered in this framework include accidental nuclear war, potential arms races and conflicts in the third world, and the proliferation of chemical weapons and missiles.     

Numerical investigation of the failure mechanism of cubic concrete specimens in SHPB tests

Cylindrical specimens are commonly used in Split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) tests to study the uniaxial dynamic properties of concrete-like materials.In recent years,true tri-axial SHPB equipment has also been developed or is under development to investigate the material dynamic properties under tri-axial impact loads.For such tests,cubic specimens are needed.It is well understood that static material strength obtained from cylinder and cube specimens are different.Conversion factors are obtained and adopted in some guidelines to convert the material strength obtained from the two types of specimens.Previous uniaxial impact tests have also demonstrated that the failure mode and the strain rate effect of cubic specimens are very different from that of cylindrical ones.However,the mechanical background of these findings is unclear.As an extension of the previous laboratory study,this study performs numerical SHPB tests of cubic and cylindrical concrete specimens subjected to uniaxial impact load with the validated numerical model.The stress states of cubic specimens in relation to its failure mode under different strain rates is analyzed and compared with cylindrical specimens.The detailed analyses of the numerical simulation results show that the lateral inertial confinement of the cylindrical specimen is higher than that of the cubic specimen under the same strain rates.For cubic specimen,the corners are more severely damaged because of the lower lateral confinement and the occurrence of the tensile radial stress which is not observed in cylindrical specimens.These results explain why the dynamic material strengths obtained from the two types of specimens are different and are strain rate dependent.Based on the simulation results,an empirical formula of conversion factor as a function of strain rate is proposed,which supplements the traditional conversion factor for quasi-static material strength.It can be used for transforming the dynamic compressive strength from cylinders to cubes obtained from impact tests at different strain rates.     

多阶段任务系统任务持续能力数学评价模型研究

分析了多阶段任务系统(PMS)及任务可靠度、可信度和任务效能等任务持续能力评价参数。结合实际装备系统大部分属于可用马尔可夫过程进行描述的可修复系统的特点,为简化模型复杂程度提出了一些合理的假设条件。针对两状态PMS,通过分析其状态转移关系,从阶段任务成功概率和阶段任务间转换概率的概念出发,分析给出其计算方法。结合对可信度和任务效能等参数的分析结果,建立其计算模型,从而建立了多阶段任务系统任务持续能力数学评价模型。最后结合常见的“靶场打靶”任务,通过对比仿真结果进行了模型的实例验证。     

Bayesian strategies for dynamic pricing in e‐commerce

E‐commerce platforms afford retailers unprecedented visibility into customer purchase behavior and provide an environment in which prices can be updated quickly and cheaply in response to changing market conditions. This study investigates dynamic pricing strategies for maximizing revenue in an Internet retail channel by actively learning customers' demand response to price. A general methodology is proposed for dynamically pricing information goods, as well as other nonperishable products for which inventory levels are not an essential consideration in pricing. A Bayesian model of demand uncertainty involving the Dirichlet distribution or a mixture of such distributions as a prior captures a wide range of beliefs about customer demand. We provide both analytic formulas and efficient approximation methods for updating these prior distributions after sales data have been observed. We then investigate several strategies for sequential pricing based on index functions that consider both the potential revenue and the information value of selecting prices. These strategies require a manageable amount of computation, are robust to many types of prior misspecification, and yield high revenues compared to static pricing and passive learning approaches. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Inventory control and periodic price discounting campaigns

This paper develops an inventory model that determines replenishment strategies for buyers facing situations in which sellers offer price‐discounting campaigns at random times as a way to drive sales or clear excess inventory. Specifically, the model deals with the inventory of a single item that is maintained to meet a constant demand over time. The item can be purchased at two different prices denoted high and low. We assume that the low price goes into effect at random points in time following an exponential distribution and lasts for a random length of time following another exponential distribution. We highlight a replenishment strategy that will lead to the lowest inventory holding and ordering costs possible. This strategy is to replenish inventory only when current levels are below a certain threshold when the low price is offered and the replenishment is to a higher order‐up‐to level than the one currently in use when inventory depletes to zero and the price is high. Our analysis provides new insight into the behavior of the optimal replenishment strategy in response to changes in the ratio of purchase prices together with changes in the ratio of the duration of a low‐price period to that of a high‐price period. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

高重合度人字齿轮传动动态性能优化设计

对人字齿轮传动进行高重合度设计的分析,基于人字齿轮副承载接触分析技术,针对人字齿轮传动中主动小齿轮轴向浮动安装的特点,综合考虑齿轮时变啮合刚度、啮合冲击激励及误差激励等因素的影响,采用集中质量法建立了考虑修形的人字齿轮副弯-扭-轴耦合非线性振动模型,推导了系统无量纲运动微分方程,求解得到齿轮传动系统的振动加速度。以齿轮的振动加速度均方根值为优化的目标函数,针对该类复杂实际工程优化设计中适应值计算费时的缺点,提出了一种改进的具有适应值预测机制的遗传算法,优化得到了人字齿轮的基本设计参数及修形参数,提高了计算效率,通过实例分析验证了该优化方法的有效性。对加工的人字齿轮在减振降噪试验台上进行带载试验,对比优化前后的噪音分贝值,进一步验证了该优化方法对齿轮副减振降噪具有一定作用。     

条（环）状干摩擦阻尼器的微滑移数值模型

提出一种求解弹性条(环)状阻尼器微滑移接触运动的数值方法。将阻尼器和外部激励历程在空间和时间上离散,将相同数量的干摩擦触点布置于离散阻尼器上;把接触运动判据应用到各离散接触点,确定其运动状态并修正刚度矩阵,求解整个阻尼器的平衡方程。该方法避免了有限元软件求解含摩擦接触问题的迭代过程,从而保证了求解的可执行性。同时,克服了微滑移模型理论解法对法向载荷分布规律及载荷时变性的限制,为求解具有局部性以及时变性的法向载荷的结构动态响应提供了更为精确的边界条件,从而可提高结构频响分析的准确性。应用多谐波平衡法分别计算宏滑移和微滑移阻尼器约束下的结构动态响应,发现在结构减振中,微滑移模型能够适应更宽范围的法向力。     

飞机系统安全性指标的Petri Net分配方法

为解决动态故障树抽象而不利于交流的问题,利用Petri Net直观、易用且适用范围广的优点,提出基于Petri Net的飞机系统安全性指标分配方法。通过整理安全性指标及其相关的可靠性指标,选取失效率作为安全性指标,对比动态故障树及Petri Net建模方法,选取后者建立静态逻辑变迁和动态逻辑变迁的Petri Net指标分配模型。在此基础上,提出考虑严酷等级的系统安全性指标分配方法,经过算例分析,构建Petri Net层次系统故障模型进行指标分配。结果表明,分配值均在相应安全性指标内,该方法能够克服动态故障树法不直观、等分配法分配过于粗糙等缺陷,为飞机安全性设计与评估提供参考。