On the production of victory: Empirical determinants of battlefield success in modern war

Using a data set of historical battles from 1600 to 1973, this paper analyzes the empirical determinants of tactical success in modern war. Based on a reduced form approach we consider key elements of military theory as production factors for combat success as an output of a military production function. The paper focuses on the relationship of material and non-material factors to battlefield success, and especially on the role of superior force strengths. Contrary to the emphasis on technology which can be found in the recent literature, our estimation results indicate that numerical superiority has retained its crucial role for battlefield performance throughout history. In general, human elements of warfare, like leadership, morale and surprise, have continued to be important determinants of battle outcome despite technological progress in weapons.     

MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM SYSTEM GMM ESTIMATES

The effect of military expenditure on economic growth in developing countries has been investigated by many empirical literatures. However, there is little consensus of that effect and the diversity seems to come from the use of different models and different estimators. This article applies the Augmented Solow Growth Model to examine the influence of military expenditure on economic growth for 35 developing countries over the period of 1975–2009. By using the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators, empirical results indicate that defence has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the sample countries.     

战时装备调配保障决策模型构建研究

分析了战时装备调配保障决策的特点,运用模糊聚类分析法对装备调配保障对象进行了分组和优先级排序,以此为基础,运用目标规划法构建了战时装备调配保障决策模型,最后,通过实例验证了模型的可行性和有效性．     

基于排队论的地面防空系统服务概率研究

排队理论计算地面防空系统的服务(可射击)概率时,因计算模型的制约,可能使计算结果大于实际结果,影响防空兵指挥员指挥决策的准确性。对此,根据地面防空系统的主要特征,分析了引起计算误差的因素和误差的可能取值范围,克服了排队论模型的局限性,为计算结果的修正提供了依据。     

The Armoury Gauging System and Interchangeable Manufacture

Abstract

Scientifically analysing important artefacts from the site of historic battles is vital if the best information is to be retrieved from the field. A detailed knowledge of the specific equipment that was available to the combatants from a known battle is also required at a high level so that artefacts and fragments resulting from an historic battlefield archaeological survey can be recognised when found. Access to specialists from all walks of life is required throughout each battlefield-related project, from the fieldwork stages to the dissemination of information. The following paper discusses the importance of working alongside museums and specialists and gives examples of how the Towton Battlefield Archaeology Project has successfully worked with the staff at the Royal Armouries Leeds.     

基于OLS算法的导弹气动系数模型优选

针对导弹控制系统中的气动力建模问题,将正交最小二乘法用于模型结构优选,并提出一种候选模型集预处理方法,用以剔除模型中的相关项在此基础上建立了导弹气动力模型优选方法。将其应用于一种导弹滚转力矩系数模型,进行了仿真计算,取得了与风洞试验数据一致的计算结果。结果显示该方法在导弹气动力建模中有效可行,为构建最优化的模型结构提供指导。     

弹道修正弹系统效能灵敏度分析

灵敏度分析是武器系统效能分析中的一项重要内容,针对正交试验的不足,在分析了弹道修正弹系统效能的影响因素的基础上,建立了基于均匀设计的弹道修正弹系统效能的回归模型。通过对模型求导得到了命中概率对各参数的灵敏度表达式,并进行优化分析,得到了系统效能参数的最优组合以及最优区间,研究结果可作为弹道修正弹参数优化设计的依据。     

How Probable is Cyber War? Bringing IR Theory Back In to the Cyber Conflict Debate

Many well-established explanations for war suggest that cyber weapons have a greater chance of being used offensively than other kinds of military technologies. This response article introduces a research agenda for the study of cyber war, and offers an example – principal-agent problems in cyber operations – to demonstrate how rigorous theoretical and empirical work may proceed.     

内编队地球重力场测量性能数值分析

内编队系统通过实现内卫星纯引力轨道环境和内卫星精密定轨,完成高精度地球重力场测量,实现了不依赖于加速度计的重力卫星实施新途径。针对内编队重力场测量性能难以解析分析的情况,基于MATLAB并行程序设计进行了重力场测量数值模拟,获得了内编队重力场测量的有效阶数及其精度。在内编队轨道高度为300km、内卫星干扰力为1.0×10-10m/s2、外卫星定轨精度为3cm、内外卫星相对状态测量精度为1mm的条件下,计算得到内编队测量重力场的有效阶数为72,相应的大地水准面累积误差为44cm,重力异常累积误差为4.5mGal,由此可知内编队测量重力场的有效阶数主要分布在低阶部分。     

基于组合赋权雷达图实现电网电能质量综合评估

将改进的组合赋权雷达图方法用于电网电能质量综合评估。对主观、客观赋权法组合,基于组合权重与原权重之间的偏差尽可能小的优化思想,求取雷达图中各项指标的组合权值。利用各指标对应的扇形区域的对角线作为指标轴绘制雷达图,不仅最大限度体现各指标的独立权重,也反映了各指标之间的相互影响。利用雷达图的面积和周长两个变量完成对电能质量的综合评估。最后通过应用实例,验证了论文方法的合理性和在电能质量综合评估中的有效性。